Second quarter's economic growth may have been helped by increased activity to get ahead of tariffs

[deminks]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/hot-economic-growth-could-be-partly-due-to-increased-activity-ahead-of.html

The U.S. economy is expected to have grown at its best pace in four years in the second quarter, and a part of the boost may have been from inventory building and exports ahead of the implementation of tariffs.

Economists say it's difficult to say how much tariff-related activity added to the expected 4.1 percent growth.

Some economists say it could be just a few tenths of a point, but NatWest Markets economists say it could have totaled a full point.

I love poking holes in Donnie's balloons.

[asiliveandbreathe]

1. Correct...housing starts at a 9 month low as well...

As I read through Bloomberg, much the same analysis..

the risks from tariff wars and a fading effect from tax cuts are among reasons analysts see difficulty keeping the economy growing at such a robust pace.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27/u-s-gdp-growth-hits-4-1-fastest-since-2014-in-win-for-trump

Re inflation - does NOT include food and energy..

The dollar and yields on 10-year Treasuries declined after the report, which also showed inflation excluding food and energy was lower than estimated.

[dalton99a]

2. Yep. Supply management people are trying to be proactive.

[Takket]

3. Translation: drumpf's economy has not fully kicked in yet

[Cicada]

4. Advance sale of soybeans represented one sixth of gdp gain qtr 2

Other activities accelerated to beat tariffs added some more. And those were stolen from Qtr 3 which will be lowered by those amounts.

[shirleye]

5. the speech reminded me of someone saying if i drive this fast the whole trip i'll be there in a hour

ignoring traffic, lights, and whatever else

[gratuitous]

6. I nearly fainted watching NBC's coverage this morning

The local (west coast) station didn't air Trump's availability live, and joined Chuck Todd's commentary in progress, just as Todd said he was surprised the president didn't pull something patting himself on the back (flash thought: Who are you and what have you done with chucktodd? Never mind; I don't care, keep going). He threw it back to Savannah Guthrie at Studio 1A for the opening of the Today Show, and Guthrie echoed Todd's sentiments that Trump was just grandstanding.

It was like watching journalism again.

[haele]

7. May have been? I'll bet my student loan balance it was...

If NatWest Markets thinks it might be a full point, they're probably right.

Two months ago, when the tariff talk pretty much became a reality to the markets, my old global economics instructor I keep touch with predicted between 3.8 and 4.0 for this last quarter, just because he noticed both domestic and foreign markets were reacting as if they were stocking up a quarter or two ahead in case of a short-term trade war. No matter how it falls out, there's two truths that have to be faced in the U.S. economy:
1. After this quarter, growth will slow down all next year as the market basically bought everything it would have needed over the year early on.
2. No matter if it's a long or short trade war, as of the middle of July, U.S. agriculture and manufacturing have lost clients because no one in business will want to trade with a supplier they can't trust from day to day. And they won't get them back until a risk-adverse global market sees U.S. political leadership becomes stable enough to trust an economy to again.

Haele

[TheBlackAdder]

8. Yep. My daughter and I bought new high-end laptops for her STEM college work and my research.

.

In a few months, these things will start to jump in price.

.