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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOH-12: O'Connor pulls to within 3% of Republican Balderson. Green Party at 2%
Danny OConnor continues to narrow the gap against Troy Balderson in the special election for Ohios 12th.
Congressional District. With less than two weeks to go, OConnor now trails by just two pointscontinuing a trend that has brought this race to a dead heat since paid communications began last month. In addition, the enthusiasm gap that marked previous polling here continues to favor Democrats. Voters who express any real interest in voting give OConnor the edge, providing him with a boost in the face of millions of dollars of negative ads from DC special interests.
OConnor now only trails Balderson by three points.
OConnor has narrowed the race to a 45 48 percent margin after trailing by five points just two weeks earlier and seven points in June.1
Balderson has been stuck at 48 percent this entire campaign, despite millions of dollars attacking OConnor in mail and television for well over a month.
OConnors two-point deficit is closer than the deficit of a generic Congressional Democrat, who trails a generic Congressional Republican 46 50 percent. It also far outpaces the 11-point Republican self-identification advantage among likely voters here.
Enthusiasm gap continues to spell trouble for Republicans.
Among people who say they are almost certain to vote, Baldersons lead evaporates entirely. OConnor leads among these voters by a 51- 46 percent margin. And on a scale that asks voters to report their own interest in voting from 0 to 10, those who report themselves as between a 6-10 (86 percent of the total electorate) also give the lead to OConnor. This group favored Balderson by four points just a few weeks earlier.
As we noted last time, Baldersons extremely slim edge in the overall race is built entirely on people who tell us they are less motivated to turn out.
https://www.scribd.com/document/384784512/OH-12-GBA-Strategies-for-Danny-O-Connor-July-2018
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