For Democrats, the elusive dream of a blue Georgia hinges on rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs

[DonViejo]

By Fenit Nirappil
July 30 at 9:31 AM

DULUTH, Ga. — If a blue electoral wave crests in Georgia in November, it will be pushed by dramatically changing counties like Gwinnett in what once were the Republican strongholds of suburban Atlanta.

Georgia’s second-largest county has transformed from 56 percent white in 2010 to 62 percent nonwhite last year, stunning longtime residents and shaking up the political environment.

The county’s demographic upheaval is part of a broad transformation in the state and the South, where the longtime dominance of white voters has been challenged not only by African Americans but Hispanics and Asians, many of them new arrivals.

The outcome of one of the hottest gubernatorial races of this year, pitting Democrat Stacey Abrams, a liberal former state house leader who would be the nation’s first black female governor, against Republican Brian Kemp, a self-proclaimed “politically incorrect conservative,” may rest on whether a wide-ranging Democratic effort to turn out new voters can succeed.

Democrats have also been eyeing potential gains in the House in Georgia and — as they have for many years, unsuccessfully — turning the state blue in the 2020 presidential contest.

more
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-democrats-the-elusive-dream-of-a-blue-georgia-hinges-on-rapidly-diversifying-atlanta-suburbs/2018/07/30/84802c2a-9025-11e8-b769-e3fff17f0689_story.html

[bearsfootball516]

1. Both Obama and Clinton came stunningly close to winning Georgia.

I don’t know if it’ll happen in 2020, but it’s not super far off from being won with the way demographics are changing. Kinda reminds of of what’s happened to Virginia the last 10-15 years.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Need Georgia to report 40% or fewer conservatives this year

That's all I care about, as indication toward future trend, essentially the Virginia model 15 years later. If Georgia holds at 42% self-identified conservatives -- like the 2016 exit poll -- then it remain a tease state and out of reach. But if we get a modest but meaningful drop to 40% conservatives, even with a statewide defeat, then that's a great sign looking ahead. The state doesn't become winnable in balanced national terrain until those conservatives are 37% or fewer.

[uponit7771]

4. So is this how Virginia and came into play it 37% self identified conservatives?

[DonViejo]

5. Thanks for the info! Much appreciated

[JI7]

3. that's how it is everywhere. california didn't become blue because people changed their minds

it became blue because of demographic changes.

[Blue_true]

6. Demographic changes and economic growth.

Washington State is seeing the same trend happen there, but not on the scale of California. Virginia has become purple-blue because of economic growth. North Carolina should soon join Virginia, again due to economic growth.