Why is Paul Manafort risking it all to face Mueller charges in court?

[Equinox Moon]

Manafort, 69, faces prison sentences totalling up to 305 years if convicted on all counts. Then he is due to stand trial on separate charges in Washington.

Manafort’s decision to take his chances in court has startled many observers. Speculation about whom Manafort may be protecting with his silence – and why – has steadily intensified.

“The government does not intend to present at trial evidence or argument concerning collusion with the Russian government,” Mueller’s team said in a court filing this month.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/29/paul-manafort-mueller-charges-court-trial-trump

I think this is a very good question. Who is Manafort protecting and why?

[klook]

1. The Russians will kill him

if he cooperates.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

26. Exactly what I've been thinking

He is more terrified of the Russians than anything.

From Malcolm Nance's book, "The Plot to Destroy Democracy" -- "In 2010, Victor Yanukovych ran for president again and won by a slim margin. He continued the corrupt practices of using the state-owned gas company for personal benefit. . . . . . It should be noted that one of Yanukoych's principal foreign advisors was an American named Paul Manafort."

Manafor has been joined at the hip to Russian graft and corruption for over 10 years now. He knows all of the shady dealings, the cooked books, the juggled numbers, the bribes and payoffs and most important, the murders of those who stood in the way.

When/If he takes the stand, look for him to invoke the Fifth on every question. Even if he reveals nothing in court, he's a dead man walking and he knows it. He won't last long even if they put him in maximum security away from the general population.

His silence will buy him nothing. He's too much of a liability.

[jeffreyi]

34. Hear, hear.

[TeamPooka]

46. we have a winner. no more calls. nt

[atreides1]

51. They may kill him anyway!!!

If convicted he's going to prison and they can still get to him!

But, his family is a more likely target...and he may even care about them enough to go to prison!!!

[healthnut7]

60. You know they will!

[RandomAccess]

65. That's always been my theory on the subject

I think he's terrified. I think he knows FIRST HAND what the Russians can -- and will -- do.

But I do have to say that I can't see how on earth he thinks he can escape a guilty plea -- or enough of one to keep him in prison til the end of his days. But it sure will be interesting to see it play out.

[spooky3]

2. Does he have a choice?

Maybe no one has offered him a deal. Maybe that judge was incorrect in speculating that the only reason that Manafort was being pursued was to put the squeeze on Trump.

[ProudLib72]

8. I hope that you are right.

I would like to see all the major players serve life sentences instead of getting plea deals. While I realize plea deals are a necessary evil, at this point I'm thinking maybe Mueller doesn't actually need any assistance from Manafort. Maybe his testimony would be redundant.

[spooky3]

11. good point, and I hope you are right too! nt

[Equinox Moon]

13. Quote from the article:

“The government does not intend to present at trial evidence or argument concerning collusion with the Russian government,” Mueller’s team said in a court filing this month.

[D23MIURG23]

54. Its possible he doesn't. Mueller presumably isn't prosecuting Russian oligarchs for corruption.

That's Russia's business. Even if he has lots of dirt on shady shit from Russia, it isn't going to matter unless it was related to dealings with Americans and American elections. Manafort is one of the dirtiest people in Trump's orbit, so he might be considered one of the highest value targets of the investigation.

[C_U_L8R]

3. He believes Trump will save him

He may not know Trump as well as he thinks

[lancelyons]

7. Agreed. He believes eventually he will get a pardon.

[NewJeffCT]

50. aren't some of the charges against Manafort

also state-level charges that he cannot be pardoned for by Trump?

[spooky3]

55. I think you're right. I think that is one reason the trial is

Being held in VA.

Not a lawyer, but I wonder if it violates VA law to spend ill-gotten gains on real estate. He owns a house and a luxury condo in VA. And he likely is considered a VA resident and didn’t report income on his state tax returns.

On edit—yes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/the-manafort-trial-what-you-need-to-know/2018/07/26/cccede98-8136-11e8-b851-5319c08f7cee_story.html?utm_term=.e2828f318f3e

[Takket]

4. because prison rations taste better than a polonium sandwich?

[RockRaven]

5. Maybe he's concerned that everyone related/connected to him will get some polonium in their tea?

I mean, I'm just throwing a totally-plausible explanation out there. I know that sounds like a crazy thing to do...

[Equinox Moon]

6. So... he might be protecting the lives of other people? Hmmmm, curious.

[RockRaven]

9. I mean, I'm not granting him a lot of credit here, but he does have kids, right?

Even really selfish sociopathic criminals care about their kids to some degree, if only for selfish ego-related reasons (see also: Donald Trump). And Putin will order an assassination on just about anybody, so...

[Equinox Moon]

16. That sounds plausible to me.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

28. He has two daughters.

[defacto7]

12. Yes, the selfless sacrificing person he is.

[uponit7771]

10. Because the Russians like murdering people's wives and kids

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

14. He's more afraid of the Russians than of Mueller.

He doesn't dare spill the beans - he and his family are safer with him in prison.

[Wellstone ruled]

15. If you have followed a couple of high profile

Trials in the last three years or so.. My guess is he is going for a mistrial or hung Jury,based on Prosecution screw ups. Remember what happened in both Bundy Gang Trials. Prosecution screw ups, and in Portland,it was Federal Prosecutors ego's got ahead of themselves when it came to jury selection. In Nevada it was failure to turn over Evidence to the Defense Counsel.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

31. DON'T EVEN BEGIN

to confuse Robert Mueller with that pompous ass Ethan Knight.

[Wellstone ruled]

37. Just saying. Knight is and was a bad joke.

Team Mueller seems more prepared and there does not seem to be a Ego that will cause problems like Knight.

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Manafort will be tried and convicted of treason. He is one of the worst of the bunch.

His traitorous activities span decades. The best he can hope for is Trump trades him to Russia in exchange for a US spy. No way Mueller is going to cut him a deal. For one thing, I don't think Trump was an active part of most of Manafort's spying/murdering/arms dealing and treasons over the years. I think Trump got caught up at the end. So, there is no way that Manafort should be given a free pass in exchange for throwing Trump under the bus when Manafort is the equivalent of a god damned Tienanmen Square tank. As much as I despise Trump, Manafort is much, much worse.

[Equinox Moon]

20. Treason is the death penalty. Right?

I don't think treason is on the list of charges though.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

38. He hasn't been charged with treason, espionage, or anything like it.

He is being tried on charges of bank fraud and tax fraud - financial crimes. This trial probably won't address Russian election interference at all.

The second trial involves charges of failing to register as a foreign agent and money laundering.

[SunSeeker]

40. He's charged in a DC case too. Only the VA case is going to trial tomorrow.

And I wouldn't say being accused of money laundering of $60 million received as an unregistered agent of the Russian government is "nothing like" treason or espionage. But the VA case is the low hanging fruit of easy to prove financial crimes. They can always add more charges to the DC case, which is not going to trial for at least another 6 weeks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/31/manafort-and-mueller-agree-to-ditch-manaforts-appeal-of-civil-case.html

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

43. True, but there seems to be a common misconception that he's being tried

for crimes directly related to Trump and the Russia election interference, including offenses like treason and espionage, and he isn't. The DC case is probably more closely related to Russian dirty deeds than the VA case but those crimes are still financial and not part of the Russia "collusion" matter, at least not so far.

[poetshepherd]

39. ah, no.

trump is a career criminal, he just had a better stake in life than Manafort. I'm sure people have died b/c of both.

[lindysalsagal]

58. I wonder about all the innocents, or small-time criminals who were in the wrong place at the wrong t

time and became collateral damage. Russian gangsters operate immoral businesses all over the world.

[jcgoldie]

18. Putin is much more dangerous than Mueller

[Honeycombe8]

19. He's getting a pardon. And he's afraid of assassination. And he doesn't want to start talking...

Once he starts talking, it would open the flood gates to all his crimes. Mueller may not know everything, so Manafort doesn't want to give that up. Instead, he's making Mueller try to prove crimes. Even if that happens, he has a pardon waiting.

I imagine the govt has frozen his money, but he may have some money somewhere that Mueller doesn't know about. Or at least Manafort doesn't think Mueller knows about.

Could be he also fears for his life. He worked for Russia, remember. Russia really does kill people in other countries.

[Equinox Moon]

21. It blows my mind he would live a life like this.

Meaning, a person would choose to live this way and do that stuff.

[scarytomcat]

64. if pardoned he has to admit to his crimes

but he can't talk or he dies

[Mr. Ected]

22. This trial is about tax evasion, not espionage

That other trial is coming up in a couple months. By then, Paulie may be a convicted felon with decades of prison time ahead of him.

[wiggs]

23. same reason the gop is sticking w trump. They see a way through this. nt

[Equinox Moon]

24. Grand-Master Crooks if they can 'see' a way through such messes.

[wiggs]

27. McConnell 'saw' that delaying one SCOTUS pick would get him two picks. nt

[JI7]

30. the republicans are doing it because they don't want to end up like Mark Sanford

who is very conservative but he went against trump so he lost the primary.

[MaryMagdaline]

25. Better to die in jail than to die by Russian poison

[Haggis for Breakfast]

29. What makes you think he won't die of Russian poisoning in jail ?

[MaryMagdaline]

42. I have confidence in the deep state to protect him

[flamin lib]

32. One word. Polunium. Nt

[JHB]

33. Give me a P, give me an O, give me an L, give me another O...

**skip several iterations you can figure out***

What does it spell? POLONIUM!

[Snackshack]

35. I think...

3 Reasons

1.- He is more afraid of Russia than jail.
2.- He thinks he will get a pardon.
3.- If he was to flip and at the end needed witness protection...he has already seen Trump and the republicans out confidential informants...he probably figures he would not be safe in witness protection a valid concern IMO.

Going to trial and fighting it hoping for not guilty is his only good option.

[DownFromTheMountain]

36. If you haven't had your life threatened...

It really doesn't come to mind when you start thinking about: Why? But it does explain a lot if you imagine that at some point you get it put plainly that you, or someone close to you, will die if you don't do as told. Polonium...Novachuck...a high building..a suicide note...why else would these people do this and not, like, sail around the world, or go on permanent vacation..they're effing rich! Why? What's the motivation to get into so much obvious trouble?

[krawhitham]

41. Either he is afraid of Russians or he has nothing to give up

He might have been a Russian pawn and has nothing to give up

[Hulk]

44. Dead man walking....and he knows it.

He's fook'd, and there is NO WAY out for this traitor, coward. He can rat, and he'll be toast within a year. He can eat shit and bark at the moon now, cause that's all he has left.

[AlexSFCA]

45. he has no choice; putin will destroy him and his family if he reveals his actions

Manafort has been working for putin for years.

[aeromanKC]

47. I need a new dust filter for my Hoover MaxExtract PressurePro model 60 - can you help me with that?

Cinnabunn is hiring.

[DallasNE]

48. Manafort Has A Pardon In His Hip Pocket

So what risk does he face in going to trial? Other than Trump may not be able to deliver. Of course Trump could just open his mouth and cause a mistrial without a gag order on Trump.

[NewJeffCT]

57. he's also up on state charges

and trump cannot pardon him for those crimes.

[Orsino]

49. Any of a dozen billionaires could buy his silence.

And not all are American.

[beachbum bob]

52. boils down to entitlement and arrogance

[inwiththenew]

53. His life is effectively over now so it's about protecting his kids would be my guess

He's almost 70 years old. He has to figure he's had a good run and now he's going to have to go down with the ship to keep his family safe would be my guess. The people he was dealing with aren't the type to take betrayal lying down.

[NCTraveler]

56. Or.

With crimes that rise to the level of his, is a plea deal simply off the table?

There are people in life that prosecutors would like to roll but aren't willing to give up the farm. Specially if it is believed the individual will simply continue their life of crime.

What are they going to do, offer him ten years?

They have found their way so far up Manaforts ass that the only benefit he could possibly be is in testimony. That testimony might be as questionable as it gets.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

59. He's rolling dice for acquittals. Assuming conviction I think a deal comes prior to sentencing. nt

[ffr]

61. Someone, maybe even from here on DU, showed him some love.

[Equinox Moon]

62. In what way?

[UTUSN]

63. K&R good question