May I predict the Ohio 12?

[louis c]

I got the Jones election correct in Alabama and Lamb in Pennsylvania. I'm certainly not correct all the time, but I do OK most of the time.

Here's my reasoning. Balderson (R) hasn't budged in the polls since the middle of June. In fact he's gone from 48% to 46%, while nearly all the momentum, the undecideds and Independents are breaking O'Conner (D). This election is really coming down to a referendum on Trump and his approval rating is slightly under water in this district. This does look a lot like the Western Pennsylvania race, which was a Trump plus 19% in 2016. Ohio's 12th is Trump plus 11% in 2016. Although the twelfth is one of the whitest districts in Ohio, it is also among the most educated. The Rural, Suburban breakdown is 2 to 1 Suburban.

I don't think that Trump was any help to Balderson, but Kasich may have been, although the Governor may have diluted that with his revelation on Sunday that Trump wasn't invited in for that rally.

The enthusiasm for Democratic candidates in this election cycle, the revulsion of Trump by more educated voters, especially women, the bad stories about Trump recently and the historical trends make my prediction what it is.

O'Conner by 3%

[RhodeIslandOne]

1. I'll take it

Go Danny!

[TlalocW]

2. If you're wrong

What's your punishment?

TlalocW

[louis c]

4. May I suggest a spanking?

[TeamPooka]

20. Thank you sir, may I have another district?

[Stuart G]

3. Very positive outlook..and I hope you are right!! k and r..nt

[lapfog_1]

5. What impact will the Lebron smear have on this race

isn't Lebron a local hero there?

Picking a fight with him seemed to me to be a really stupid thing to do...

Go to a state and pick on their NFL or NBA stars.

OTOH maybe the racist rural areas hate Lebron and this attack motivates them??? (not saying that it is... just wondering)

[louis c]

6. LeBron is better liked in Nothern Ohio, around Cleveland

This district is more in the Columbus area, near Dayton. Much further South and much less urban.

[Ohiya]

12. there are a lot of LeBron fans in central Ohio...

Just ask my wife!

[RazBerryBeret]

14. Lebron is well liked

state wide. I live in 12, N Westerville.
It's hard to dislike a guy who does so much and gives so much to his community.

[louis c]

15. Jesus, no one said "disliked"

But LeBron is better known and has done more for the Akron area than any other area of Ohio. If 90% of the Cleveland area residents like LeBron and 80% of the Columbus area resident likes LeBron, that doesn't mean he's disliked, just better liked in the region he's from, the closest big city he played for, and the larger recipient of his generosity.

[RazBerryBeret]

18. ouch. touchy.

I wasn't trying to be offensive.
jeeezus.


chill, man.

[louis c]

36. I just don't like people putting words in my mouth

Last edited Tue Aug 7, 2018, 08:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I can speak for myself.

[True Blue American]

31. Columbus is on 170

40 miles east of Dayton. But the gerrymandered District stretches from Zanesville, south to Mansfield, north.

Because it is the State Capital, more Educated have moved there.

I have posted this before.

https://statehousegang.com/

Balderson joins the gang.

https://ohiodems.org/state-sen-troy-balderson-joins-the-statehouse-gang/

[Doitnow]

24. Stupid people don't know they're stupid.

[MineralMan]

7. Make it so, Ohioans!

[PearliePoo2]

8. Good thoughtful analysis. Is anyone else really excited for tonight?

Because of the profound implications and importance of this election, I'm on the edge of my seat, heart pounding.

Take it to the ReThugs, eat their lunch and kick their ass!

GO Danny!

[CrispyQ]

9. postcardstovoters.org had a big campaign for O'Conner!

I joined late, but I got about a dozen postcards sent out to OH. There are more races if you want to volunteer! It's relaxing, therapeutic, & fun. I stole a great tagline from DU for my cards:



https://postcardstovoters.org

They send you text that you have to use (name of candidate, date of election) & then a bunch of optional text.

[nycbos]

10. Don't jinx it.

Do you want to tempt the wrath from high atop the thing?

[tavernier]

16. Didn't see this episode.

Thanks!

[nycbos]

22. Here is another good one

[grantcart]

11. I think you are on track

Republicans have no addition, working on subtraction

DEMS working on addition.

[yallerdawg]

13. You may be right!

My Republican senator (Shelby) is tending to agree with me when I complain about the Dotard and his tariffs and foreign policy.

I haven't seen that in decades! Something is most definitely going on.

[sellitman]

17. GOP heads would explode.

Please make it so.

[gratuitous]

19. Balderson isn't covering himself with glory heading into election day

The video here is only a minute long, but well worth for a look at Troy Balderson's true colors:

Link to Daily Kos story and video.

Pretty sorry display by everyone in front of the camera.

[SWBTATTReg]

28. Thanks for posting ... all I can say is wow! What an idiot...nt

[TeamPooka]

21. I'll take O'Conner by .1% if necessary

GOTV OH D!

[keithbvadu2]

23. Especially want to see how Franklin County votes.

Ohio politician really screws up

Republican in Ohio Special Election Closes Race by Insulting One-Third of Voters

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/troy-balderson-franklin-county.html

[honest.abe]

26. I think we have a winner!

Only probably more than 3%.. more like 5%.

[Adrahil]

27. I'm reluctant to predict an O'Conner win.

I've been disappointed too many times.

But I have to say, your call feels right. It just FEELS like the momentum is in our favor. I just hope it's enough.

[sprinkleeninow]

29. This is COPACETIC!

I do accept this!

Go Danny, go! For the win! Do it!

💙🇺🇸🌊

[asiliveandbreathe]

30. Everyone is Danny O'Connor today.....3% - that would be just fine - in fact anything over

0.25% is a win....if this is true...

Recount rule.. Ohio: Automatic recount if the difference between the top two candidates is less than 0.25 percent.

[peggysue2]

32. I'll take O'Connor by any . . .

percentile. Not only would it give us a leg up in November but a win here would be a tremendous punch in the gut to Republican strategists who are trying to send the message: nothing to see here, move along. It would also bust the Trumpster's chops with his Red Wave nonsense.

Lips to God's ear, as they say.

Has anyone heard info on today's voter turnout in Ohio? That might give us an early clue.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

33. balderson(r) equals saccone(r),

just saying!

[beachbum bob]

34. Even a 10 point loss by O'Connor is a huge win when you look at

2016 OH-12 results and voter disparity between GOP and democrats in the May 8th primary for this special election.

An O'Conner win will blow GOPland

[D23MIURG23]

35. Sounds like a reasonable guess. I hope you are right. n/t