NYT: Ohio Special Election Results: 12th First results expected around 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

[riversedge]

Last edited Tue Aug 7, 2018, 09:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Polls just closed at 7:30 Eastern.....


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html



Ohio Special Election Results: 12th Congressional District

By THE NEW YORK TIMES Aug. 7, 2018, 7:21 PM ET
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Troy Balderson Republican 0 0.0%
Danny O’Connor Democrat 0 0.0
Joe Manchik Green 0 0.0





First results expected around 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

What to watch: Voters in Ohio’s 12th District are choosing a replacement for Representative Pat Tiberi, a Republican who resigned to work for a business group. The candidates are Troy Balderson, a Republican endorsed last week by Mr. Trump, and Danny O’Connor, a Democrat.

The race is expected to be close, and both national parties are spending heavily. But whoever loses will get a rematch in the regularly scheduled election in just three months.

—
Live Analysis by Nate Cohn Ohio Special Election Results: 12th Congressional District
regularly scheduled election in just three months.

[riversedge]

1. Steve K saying the early results will be leaning Dem by large amounts

[dalton99a]

2. Kick

[Meadowoak]

3. Fingers crossed.

[riversedge]

5. and my toes

[riversedge]

4. --Don't even think about the OH12 early vote tonight. It's going to be wild for O'Connor, and it's

Nate Cohn
‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn

--Don't even think about the OH12 early vote tonight. It's going to be wild for O'Connor, and it's not remotely representative
--A benchmark: if this is like prior specials, turnout would be appx 220k and Franklin Co. will be appx 34% of the electorate. Will be fun to compare

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

6. FIRST NUMBERS ON THE BOARD...

Franklin Co. early vote:

Danny O'Connor
10,878
80%

Troy Balderson
2,579
19%

Link to tweet

[riversedge]

11. Oh lets just cheat and call it now. te he.

[catrose]

76. Indeed!

[bearsfootball516]

7. I've seen a few tweets from officials saying turnout in Republican heavy districts was high.

We'll see if it was high enough to offset O'Connor's early vote lead.

[riversedge]

9. oh crap. I did not want to hear that.

[riversedge]

8. O ahead in Franklin cty...

County O’Connor Balderson Manchik Rpt.
Franklin
10,878

2,579

62
<1%

[Tiggeroshii]

12. That is a lot of percentage!

Fingers crossed they pull this off...

[LisaL]

16. But that's expected out of Franklin. That's the only democratic county in that district.

[liberalla]

10. thanks for the link!

[riversedge]

13. COOK: ****Here's my latest estimate of O'Connor (D) needs in each #OH12 county to win today's speci

Pinned Tweet
Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
11h11 hours ago

Here's my latest estimate of what Danny O'Connor (D) needs in each #OH12 county to win today's special election (2-party vote share):

Delaware: 47%
Franklin: 64%
Licking: 42%
Marion: 32%
Morrow: 31%
Muskingum: 42%
Richland: 43%

Link to tweet

[Tiggeroshii]

17. So... 80% so far in Franklin?

Not bad!

[LisaL]

19. For whatever reason, democrats in OH like to vote early.

In presidential elections, early results always favor democrats, then the rest of the votes come in.

[Tiggeroshii]

30. Looks like he's suprassing all required vote shares except for Muskingum where he's at 37%

Hope it holds!

[LincolnRossiter]

14. Great start to the race...

Almost 80% - 20% in the most populous areas. Obviously will be a nail-biter, but a still a great start.

[riversedge]

15. We're looking at a *big* urban/rural divide tonight. #OH12

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
2m2 minutes ago

Balderson wins Licking Co. early vote 50%-49%. So far doing 31% better there than in Franklin Co. We're looking at a *big* urban/rural divide tonight. #OH12
0 replies 2 retweets 13 likes

Link to tweet

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
9m9 minutes ago

Dave Wasserman Retweeted Dave Wasserman

Remember: this is O'Connor's best batch of votes in the entire CD. His % will only go down from here...needs ~64% in Franklin Co. w/ all E-Day ballots in. #OH12

[LincolnRossiter]

18. Any word on today's vote?

Trump won this county 62-33. If O'Conner can keep it even 55-45 that would be fantastic.

[bearsfootball516]

21. Not yet. Should be soon. O'Connor is up about 10,000 with the entire early vote in.

I may just be being pessimistic, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to hold on. Hoping I eat my words...

Link to tweet

[riversedge]

22. I have not heard. Pins and needles for me.

[riversedge]

20. Balderson (R) wins Muskingum Co. early vote 61%-38%. That's a sign he's getting a good hometown bonu

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
3m3 minutes ago

Balderson (R) wins Muskingum Co. early vote 61%-38%. That's a sign he's getting a good hometown bonus. O'Connor (D) will need to post big numbers in Delaware/Franklin to make up for it. #OH12

Link to tweet

[riversedge]

23. Early vote goes to O'Connor by 26.5 points. No surprise here (was expecting something near 30,

Nate Cohn
‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn
7m7 minutes ago

Nate Cohn Retweeted Nate Cohn

Early vote goes to O'Connor by 26.5 points. No surprise here (was expecting something near 30, see below from Sunday)

[honest.abe]

24. This is looking very good to me.

He winning bigger in places he should win and losing smaller in places he should lose... so far.

[riversedge]

26. kick 🌊🌊🌊 #FlipItBlue #BlueWave2018 #VoteThemOUT

[riversedge]

25. the swing county in #OH12, Delaware Cty, last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1916

delaware cty is shading blue 00--early count yet



Ben Jacobs
‏Verified account @Bencjacobs
1m1 minute ago

Worth noting that the swing county in #OH12, Delaware County, last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1916

Link to tweet

[honest.abe]

31. Yes... early but a very good sign.

fingers crossed!

[YessirAtsaFact]

27. Geez, the polls have been closed for 45 minutes

When will the vote total from early voting be updated?

[brooklynite]

28. Current OH-12 County shares for O'Connor

Franklin 80%
Delaware 60%
Licking 48%
Muskingum 38%
Richland 54%
Morrow 44%
Marion 36%

[riversedge]

29. Here is a very RED map of the 2016 election results............

http://maps.ohioelectionresults.com/internal

[riversedge]

32. This baby is...far from over. #OH12--only 2% of vote counted per nytimes...

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
4m4 minutes ago

Dave Wasserman Retweeted John Weaver

This baby is...far from over. #OH12

Dave Wasserman added,
John Weaver
@JWGOP
The Republican better see a significant turnaround in Delaware County same day voters or this baby is over.
0 replies 3 retweets 7 likes






Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
9m9 minutes ago

Our estimates said O'Connor (D) needed ~42% in Muskingum; he'll probably end up below that based on EV. But Balderson (R) was always going to get a hometown boost there (question was how much), so it's not a deal-breaker for O'Connor. Need to see *a lot* more precincts.

Link to tweet

[yardwork]

33. As an aside, this is a ridiculously gerrymandered district.

Clearly designed to dilute the minority and Democratic votes in the cities and boost the influence of red rural districts.

[brooklynite]

34. Numbers are staring to solidify in OH-12...18% reporting

O'Connor 52 - Balderson 47

[YessirAtsaFact]

35. Tightening, as expected

O'Connor is killing it in Franklin county and only 8% of the precincts have reported there.

Balderson is doing well in the smaller counties, but how many votes are in these counties? It seems like part of the tightening is that the smaller counties are reporting results more quickly.

[Evergreen Emerald]

36. Election is rigged

republicans will win.

[brooklynite]

37. 27% reporting: O'Connor goes up 57-42

Let us know when the rigging starts, will you?

[Evergreen Emerald]

40. My eyes are closed, and I am drinking heavily. You will have to check for me!

[bearsfootball516]

39. Don't be ridiculous.

[Evergreen Emerald]

43. ?

After day after day news on election rigging, I do not think it is ridiculous. I hope it is.

[riversedge]

38. Marion Co., is the first to finish reporting*** O'Connor (D) needed 32% --he JUST got it*****

Just happy he got what was expected






Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict

Marion Co., the smallest in #OH12, is the first to finish reporting. Balderson (R) wins it 67%-32%. O'Connor (D) needed 32% there...that's what he got.
7:50 PM - 7 Aug 2018


8 replies 43 retweets 121 likes

Link to tweet

Kim Sperk
‏ @KimSperk
1m1 minute ago

Replying to @Redistrict

My heart can't take this.

[riversedge]

42. Correction: Numbers just updated, O'Connor (D) got 31% there. BUT the real story is weak turnout amo

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
2m2 minutes ago

Dave Wasserman Retweeted Dave Wasserman

Correction: Numbers just updated, O'Connor (D) got 31% there. BUT the real story is weak turnout among Rs there. More in next tweet.

Link to tweet

[bearsfootball516]

44. This isn't a bad thing. It means although he got the percentage, R turnout is really low.

Similar to what happened with Roy Moore in Alabama. He hit his percentages, but not the raw vote total.

[riversedge]

45. Breaking: all precincts are reporting in Marion Co. (smallest, most R county). Good news for Balders

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
3m3 minutes ago

Breaking: all precincts are reporting in Marion Co. (smallest, most R county). Good news for Balderson (R): he won it 68%-31%. But the bad news for him: it's at only 41% of '16 turnout, which is *really* weak turnout there if those numbers are final.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

41. We're up to 32% counted...O'Connor 53- Balderson 46%

[riversedge]

46. The big question mark right now: Delaware County. #OH12 the Swing county....

-
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict

The big question mark right now: Delaware County. #OH12

[dalton99a]

47. Only 2% reported?

[oswaldactedalone]

52. Pubs trying to figure out how many votes

they need to flip the race?

[bearsfootball516]

48. If O'Connor voters come out in Delaware County...it's going to be good night for him.

He's getting what he needs to right now, low turnout in rural areas.

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

49. Halfway there...O'Connor still leading 52-47

[bearsfootball516]

50. Nate Cohn believes Balderson has a very slim edge right now.

Link to tweet

[Drunken Irishman]

51. Looks like Balderson will eke out a win. Bummer.

[riversedge]

53. Delaware Co. E-Day votes will decide this race. #OH12

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
42s42 seconds ago

Breaking: all of Morrow Co. is in. Balderson (R) wins it 70%-29%. We estimated he needed 69%, but same story as Marion Co.: turnout is at only 46% of '16, which is really weak rural R turnout.
0 replies 8 retweets 24 likes





Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
3m3 minutes ago

Latest Franklin Co. batch: O'Connor (D) 9,104, Balderson (R) 6,196. That's actually a positive batch for Balderson. #OH12 still very much a Toss Up.
5 replies 53 retweets 78 likes
Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
6m6 minutes ago

Here's what we know: O'Connor (D) exceeding his targets in Franklin Co., Balderson (R) exceeding his targets in Zanesville/Newark areas. Turnout in rurals relatively weak. Delaware Co. E-Day votes will decide this race. #OH12
14 replies 104 retweets 198 likes

Link to tweet

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
9m9 minutes ago

Dems have to like the fact O'Connor (D) is hitting 64% of the *Election Day* vote in Franklin Co. so far. He won 80% of early ballots & needs ~64% there overall. #OH12
11 replies 99 retweets 306 likes






Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
13m13 minutes ago

The big question mark right now: Delaware County. #OH12

[riversedge]

54. Delaware is really the big question. Historically, this is a very GOP county. The early vote was als

Nate Cohn
‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn
5m5 minutes ago

Delaware is really the big question. Historically, this is a very GOP county. The early vote was also really strong for O'Connor. One possibility, a ton of GOP left. The other: O'Connor will outperform in a well-educated area. Just can't say yet.




Jonathan Gelling
‏ @HoldemPokerTips
3m3 minutes ago
Replying to @Nate_Cohn

Delaware was Trump +16 in 2016.
0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

cameron mulder
‏ @mulderc
2m2 minutes ago

Replying to @Nate_Cohn

is the lack of reporting from Delaware suspicious?

[Johnny2X2X]

55. Balderson now leads

Any chance?

[Drunken Irishman]

56. Small chance.

[D_Master81]

57. Well the heaviest Dem county is only 65% reported it looks like

and its less than a 2000 vote difference last i saw. Gonna be a nail biter it looks like.

[brooklynite]

58. Nail-biting time...

75% reporting

O'Connor leads by.....0.8%

[Dopers_Greed]

59. There will be one of two M$M reactions tonight

Repub wins: "Massive win for GOP"
Dem wins: "Result doesn't mean much, seat is up for re-election in November"

[riversedge]

60. Breaking: Latest batch of 46 Franklin Co

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict

Breaking: Latest batch of 46 Franklin Co. precincts gives O'Connor (D) a 9,955-6,816 margin. That might *not* be good enough for him there. #OH12

Link to tweet

[Tatiana]

61. I'm really irritated that a Green candidate is running.

Best of luck to O'Connor -- he can pull this out. His campaign has had amazing energy and engagement down the stretch.

[Persondem]

64. +1 Exactly what i am thinking now. Those votes could make the difference. nt

[riversedge]

62. UPDATE: can confirm many of the 25 Delaware precincts in are heavy R rural precincts like Radnor, Po

drats. not good for Oconner



ts Tweets, current page. Tweets & replies Media

Ben Jacobs Retweeted
Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
13m13 minutes ago

Dave Wasserman Retweeted Dave Wasserman

UPDATE: can confirm many of the 25 Delaware precincts in are heavy R rural precincts like Radnor, Porter, Harlem, Concord Twps. Still awaiting most of Delaware's high-college burbs, which are better for O'Connor (D). #OH12

Dave Wasserman added,
Dave Wasserman
Verified account @Redistrict
First 25 Delaware Co. E-Day precincts: Balderson (R) 3,954, O'Connor (D) 2,466. We don't know where in Delaware yet, but encouraging for Balderson. #OH12
12 replies 141 retweets 295 likes
Ben Jacobs
‏Verified account

Link to tweet

[JoeOtterbein]

63. One thing is certain at this point. If the fix is in,

it lives in Delaware Co.!

[George II]

65. As of 9:35 NYT has O'Connor ahead by 433 votes, but the freaking Green candidate has 1,005!

I hope this isn't deja vu all over again.

[honest.abe]

66. Looks like more Oconnor votes remaining than Balderson

Will be very tight but I think Danny wins it.

[brooklynite]

67. 81% in...O'Connor by 0.8%

[bearsfootball516]

68. Up by 0.8 with 85 percent in now.

[Jersey Devil]

69. Absentees - Are they included in the totals?

Anyone?

[bearsfootball516]

70. 0.1 percent lead...virtual tie with 85 percent in.

[Tiggeroshii]

73. He's now ahead by 155 votes

85% reporting

[alp227]

71. If you're trying to avoid the NY Times paywall meter...

WOSU public radio out of Columbus has a live election tracker here sourcing the Associated Press: http://radio.wosu.org/post/ohio-12th-congressional-district-special-election-results

As of 9:37 ET:

O'Connor, Danny
82,911
50.10 %

GOP
Balderson, Troy
81,573
49.29 %

Grn
Manchik, Joe
1,006
0.61 %

[Takket]

72. basically tied right now..............

so... wtg third party voters!

[Tiggeroshii]

75. ...

[workinclasszero]

78. Is the damn Green Party going to get the win for the GOP again?

[riversedge]

74. So close, but here's the simplest way to explain it right now. Delaware is 50% in, Rs are +2500 on e

Link to tweet

Nate Cohn
‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn
1m1 minute ago

So close, but here's the simplest way to explain it right now. Delaware is 50% in, Rs are +2500 on eday there. D+1400 overall, so if Rs doubles up in Delaware they'd just slightly pull ahead. Obviously, Ds could do better in Del. Or kill it in Franklin. Still soooo close

[beachbum bob]

77. 2016 race, 220,000 GOP votes, 112,000 democratic votes...you see why gop

Is scared shitless about these results..

[dalton99a]

79. Yep.

[bearsfootball516]

80. Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohen are making it sounds like Balderson is really in the drivers seat now

O'Connor just fell behind and is running out of votes.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Doodley]

81. I am too weak to look any more.

[KevTucky]

82. 13 precincts left in Franklin a bunch in Delaware

I think we pull it out, but it is going to be close!!!

[mobeau69]

83. Franklin 99% reporting.

Unfortunately it's all down to Delaware.

It'll be close but probably no cigar.

[iluvtennis]

84. 1000 vote difference between O'Connor and Balderson

---------------------------
O'Connor killing it in Columbus area - college town. Don;t think they'll be able to call this one until absentees are counted.

[alp227]

115. OSU is actually in Democrat Joyce Beatty's district

But OH-12 (formerly of Pat Tiberi) does extend close enough to campus from the map I found on Wikipedia.

[kevink077]

85. Green Party voters are horrible

These fools would rather have a far right nut in the office...

[Steven Maurer]

91. But not as horrible as Republicans

Never forget that.

Don't fool yourself into thinking that kook leftists are worse than the authoritarians. They're effectively just non-voters is all.

[John Fante]

101. They're worse than non-voters.

They took the time to vote, and pissed it away.

Green Party types spend far more time bashing Democrats than reich-wingers.

[kevink077]

111. I think they are worse

“Leftist Green Party voters ” who sabotage the dems so the republicans can win are worse then republicans. They can rot in hell.

[mobeau69]

86. Danny up 200+ votes now.

[lancelyons]

87. Looks like O'Connor might lose narrowly. Down to the wire

[riversedge]

90. If Troy Balderson (R) pulls this out, he'll have Gov. Kasich (R) to thank, not POTUS. Delaware Co. c

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
10m10 minutes ago

If Troy Balderson (R) pulls this out, he'll have Gov. Kasich (R) to thank, not POTUS. Delaware Co. coming through for him, rural Trump base not. #OH12

[Ellipsis]

88. Nail biter!

Pulling for you Ohio.

[forgotmylogin]

89. OMG up by .1%!! (n/t)

[forgotmylogin]

93. Argh, now down .4% (n/t)

[bearsfootball516]

92. Balderson up by 741 votes with 95 percent in.

Hell of job from O'Connor, but at the end of the day, I think it's just going to end up being too red of a district.

[Dopers_Greed]

94. Going to be so close

Will probably be decided by the fraction of a percent

Once again, the spoiler party might spoil it

[JoeOtterbein]

95. Recount? n/t

[riversedge]

100. only if 0.5% difference

[JoeOtterbein]

104. Thanks!

[Takket]

96. only delaware voted left. ballgame over

convenient that the red county, with far less people, was the last one to be counted, giving the GOP just enough time to see how far down they were when Franklin wrapped up.

[bearsfootball516]

102. If that was the case, they wouldn't have lost Alabama and PA-18.

This was a deep red district, and O'Connor did a phenomenal job. Sometimes, you just don't win.

[beachbum bob]

105. Delaware is 2nd largest county in oh-12...and strong republican.

[lancelyons]

108. maybe near the edge of Franklin the precincts are blue. Hard to tell. Not sure which precincts are

maybe near the edge of Franklin the precincts are blue. Hard to tell. Not sure which precincts are in.

[riversedge]

97. Breaking: 26 precincts in Delaware Co. just reported, Balderson (R) retakes lead by 741 votes (0.4%)

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
5m5 minutes ago

Breaking: 26 precincts in Delaware Co. just reported, Balderson (R) retakes lead by 741 votes (0.4%). Still 28 precincts left there. We're in territory where provisional votes could matter. #OH12

Link to tweet

[Persondem]

98. Once again D + G beats R .. I hate it. Effing Green party. nt

[budkin]

99. Looks like the Green party screwed the pooch for Democrats

Fuckers.

[pangaia]

103. When ego gets in the way of reality...

[Squinch]

106. At this point we all have to admit to ourselves that's intentional.

[JoeOtterbein]

109. Yep. Massage the votes in just one County and wait for the Cities to vote...

...all you need to do is flip a few votes and Bingo!

[Drunken Irishman]

107. That's just silly.

You assume every Green voter would have voted and that they all would have voted Democrat. The amount of Green voters in this election is so minimal that it would take a massive amount of those same voters to not only still vote but vote Democratic. Fact is, that's unlikely. We'd have a better argument if Green votere made up 5,000+ of the vote.

[alp227]

116. also, Balderson has 50.1% as of now

So the combined "liberal" (Democrats + Greens) votes still would not win.

[iluvtennis]

110. Looking that way.

[wishstar]

112. Kornacki on MSNBC says there are still thousands of absentee ballots not counted

and most of them are not military and many of them could be early votes that broke strongly for O.Connor, so this race will not be over until all the absentees are tallied

[JoeOtterbein]

113. CNN's John King said that either way lawyers will be involved. n/t

[JoeOtterbein]

114. Close enough for November! n/t

[iluvtennis]

117. Agreed. And no network should be calling shit until the absentees are counted. BTW, if this

ones slips by, with a little more outreach, we can flip this blue in November when these two will run against each other again. The winner of this special election get 3 months in office and then the Nov election

[JoeOtterbein]

118. At this time no one is calling it yet....

...still too close to call.

[iluvtennis]

119. But we may need to wait 10 days for absentees to be counted if what MSNBC reported in correct