Follow Ohio 12th In Real Time Including Projection

[louis c]

New York Times Real Time Results in Ohio 12CD

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html#eln-forecast-section

[Roland99]

1. Wonder if Manchik got any conservative PAC money

[LincolnRossiter]

2. I still have PTSD from that goddamn needle on election night 2016...

Seriously.

But keeping my fingers crossed. I don't see the needle right now.

[louis c]

3. They are waiting for same day votes

All votes now in are early votes. NY Times needs same day voting data before making a projection.

[LincolnRossiter]

4. Gotcha. Not looking forward to it. lol...

That think is a heart attack meter.

[Blue_true]

5. The early vote seem to imply problems for Balderdon.

If Ohio is like Florida. In Florida, Black voters seem to be mostly Election Day voters. If that hold true, the big vote margins for O'Connor in Franklin and Delaware counties were derived from voters that should be more favorable to Balderson.

[LisaL]

6. No, that's not true at all for OH.

Democrats in OH like to vote early.

[louis c]

7. But the early vote for O'Conner is exceeding expectations

[Blue_true]

8. Ok. Thanks. nt

[grantcart]

16. Welcome to DU

I swear I would never look at the needle again


Now I am wearing out my mouse's battery hitting the refresh button.



Where is the needle?

[Stallion]

9. Most of the Big Republican Counties Are Already 50-70% Counted

[Blue_true]

14. I noticed that too.

Balderson seem to be running out of time.

[JCMach1]

10. Still looking like a nail biter

Which is good for a Red +30 seat

[joshcryer]

11. The blue wave is coming.

[Stallion]

12. 2nd Big Wave of Franklin County Votes Take it From 6 to 11%

[LisaL]

15. Franklin is where he has to make it big to have any chance.

The rest of the counties in that district are red.

[Blue_true]

21. If he keep it close in Delaware county at the end, he should win.

Balderson has a margin in two counties with vote still out, but both those counties account for around 26,000 votes out. Franklin still has 16,000 votes out and so far O'Connor is winning there 3:1, if that holds, he picks up ~10,000 more votes from there to give him a 21,000 vote margin out of that county. So Delaware county is where it will be decided, lots of votes still out there.

[Blue_true]

13. Balderson seem to be running out of his most favorable vote.

The counties where he has high margins have high report rates. The counties where he is losing big or is not building a sizeable margin still have a lot of votes out.

[louis c]

17. This election will be decided in Delaware County

Delaware County is wealthy, educated suburban republicans. Early votes and early precincts have O'Conner ahead here. Considering the lead and the outstanding votes, any win in this county, no matter the O'Conner margin, gives the Democrat the win.

All outstanding votes should either be a wash or a slight O'Conner advantage, outside of Delaware County. that's why I come to this conclusion.

[grantcart]

18. Still looking at 3% margin?

[louis c]

22. Still looking to win

I never, ever pick or root against Democrats.

It's just the way I am.

How about you?

[grantcart]

24. Almost all the Republican votes are in

I think your 3% is going to be good

[louis c]

25. I'm afraid of Delaware County

That was in O'Conner's column in early voting. Balderson has steadily won the precincts in same day voting. Now, I admit that I don't know what part of the county the precincts are coming in from, but Delaware County is the player in this game.

[grantcart]

44. You were right. that dump from Delaware put them ahead

[grantcart]

19. Damn Balderson up by 1,000

and 900 green votes

[Adrahil]

20. Balderson takes the lead in Deleware County...

That's not good news.

[Blue_true]

28. O'Connor appears to be headed to a 22,000 vote margin out of Franklin county.

With Licking county basically done, Balderson will need to win Delaware county by 70% to 30% the rest of the way to win. So far he has not generated a margin that big in Delaware county.

[grantcart]

23. Looking better Connors back on top

[Adrahil]

26. Lots of votes out in Delaware County....

Ugh... my stomach cannot take this.

[Blue_true]

30. Balderson will need to win that by 70% to 30% to stand a chance.

So far there, he does not have that type of margin.

Update, I missed the big Licking county for Balderson result. But still to win Balderson has to win an amount north of 50% of the remaining vote there, so far it seems to be 50-49 there.

[grantcart]

34. But that isn't helping Balderson

[Adrahil]

40. I hope you are right! I want this one SO badly! NT

[grantcart]

41. I imagine there are some Republican Congressmen that are hoping Balderson loses

If Balderson wins by 1 vote Trump will be off the leash for the rest of the mid term season claiming he pulled off a miracle.

If Balderson loses they may think that they can get Trump to shut up.

[grantcart]

29. now plus 1400

[beachbum bob]

27. Delaware county is almost all white, educated and $100,000

Median income. Difficult to predict but O'Connor needs 48% of the vote here to have a chance. The slow reporting is killing us.

[grantcart]

32. basically tied in Delaware

[louis c]

33. He's been doing better in Delaware County in the most recent 30 precincts

The new votes from Franklin County and Delaware County have increased his lead to 1,600

[FBaggins]

37. The problem is that Delaware is much like Licking... only larger

If it's almost tied there with half the precincts reporting, it's going to be hard for the remaining half not to have 5-7,000 extra red votes. Not much left in Franklin to offset.

[Stallion]

35. Connors Still at 48.7 in Deleware County

[SWBTATTReg]

31. Thanks for posting real time results! nt

[grantcart]

39. ouch down to 155 vote difference

[lapfog_1]

36. O'Connor by 1338

with 7 percent yet to go in Franklin (heavy Dem)
and 48 percent to go in Delaware (near 50/50 split... but leans R)

[lapfog_1]

38. crap - now O'connor leads by 155 votes - n/t

[oswaldactedalone]

42. Down 1000

Same day voting in Delaware breaking the wrong way.

[mr_lebowski]

43. Shit Balderson now up by over 1000 votes with Delaware at 66%

Delaware killing us ...

[roamer65]

45. This one will be repeated in November.

If O’ Connor loses it this time, he will win it in November with the higher blue wave turnout.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

58. There Should Have Been Blue Wave Turnout Tonight

There are just some districts that apparently are unwinable.

[Awsi Dooger]

62. That's not the way it works

If Balderson wins narrowly this time he'll win larger in November.

Three months of being viewed locally as the winner. That'a massive in a situation like this. Some people in the district will deny they ever voted for O'Connor in the first place.

Let's just win the damn thing. But my instinct all along has been a narrow loss. August 2018 not quite as friendly as November 2017, given Trump's uptick in approval rating by a few points

[grantcart]

46. Very possible that we lose this by the margin of the damn Green votes.

[Takket]

48. will people ever learn?

[UTUSN]

50. Crap, the Repuke just flipped ahead.

[grantcart]

59. back on top lol

[Takket]

47. my 3 favorite counties...

Franklin Licking Marion

I'm 12

[Stargleamer]

49. Forget it, Jake, it's Ohio

the state that seems to always mess up

[oswaldactedalone]

51. Balderson looking good at the moment.

Hoping we can get at least in recount territory.

[grantcart]

56. recount .5%?

[krawhitham]

52. Up 201 votes

[grantcart]

53. Back on top

[Takket]

54. delaware is holding count back to "get the count right"

oconner is out of voted in franklin

[honest.abe]

60. Something suspicious about the votes coming in from Delaware

There was an odd extreme bump up for Balderson about 30 mins ago. I hope that is investigated.

[uponit7771]

73. See, this is some bullshit ... it seems like red counties are always doing some shit like this

[Stallion]

55. 99% of Frankin County-Connors take Small Lead

but that's it going to have to win it in Delaware County

[unblock]

57. we're back in the lead! but balderson will pick up another 1400 or so with the rest of delaware co.

looks likely that balderson will have the edge by around 1200 votes before the counting of the provisional votes and recounting and all that fun stuff.

hopefully we can pull it out in extra innings....

[Blue_true]

64. I am guessing Balderson will have around a 750 vote lead.

If things in Delaware county don't get worse for O'Connor. Once again, the Greens are not our friends. I am hoping that Balderson perform weaker in Delaware county the rest of the way and provisionals give the race to O'Connor.

BTW, what are the rules for doing a provisional vote in Ohio, and which party do they favor? Also, where are most of the provisionals from, what county and by how much?

[unblock]

66. don't know. grew up in columbus but left before i could vote.

[grantcart]

65. down by 700

will be decided by the provisional ballots.

[Blue_true]

72. Does anyone know how provisionals break out your party and where the lion share are? nt

[Snellius]

61. Will someone please stop me from hitting refresh all the time? nt

[grantcart]

68. step away, release the mouse, no no no go back hit it again, faster.

[Takket]

63. are absentees already included in this count?

[grantcart]

67. Kornacki just said that we should expect about 3,000 provisionals which lean Democratic.

[FBaggins]

70. Not enough

They would have to all be blue to pull it out

I think we lost by ~2,500...

[uponit7771]

71. I wouldn't be shocked if the KGOP is paying the green party

[FBaggins]

74. It does look like they'll get 1,200 votes

Not out of the question that the margin will be close to that. Delaware county keeps shocking.

[grantcart]

69. Isan't this like the third time they have been separated by 741 votes?

[Takket]

75. more blue voters will be out in november. O'conner will flip this seat then

[LisaL]

76. Yep, considering how red the district is, it's a great result.

And the best part, the election is in November and he can still win then.

[Legends303]

77. O'connor can still run towards november

Balderson may have the seat for 3 months and its going to most likely at this point.

[grantcart]

78. Hes already on the ballot

[Jersey Devil]

83. Also, in November the Reps won't be able to pour in the same amount of support and money

They will be spread all over the country trying to save seats instead of just one.

[former9thward]

91. The same fact applies for the Democrats.

[Jersey Devil]

92. GOP groups outspent their Democratic counterparts in the race by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ohio-special-election-too-close-to-call_us_5b6a5c94e4b0fd5c73deb2c9

[former9thward]

93. Not what the Washington Post says.

Republicans $4.7 million, Democrats $3.5 million.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/live-updates/midterms/live-primary-election-results/democrats-and-republicans-spent-8-million-on-ohio-special-election/?utm_term=.f11ace8a94da

[LenaBaby61]

79. Looks like O'Connor ....

Will come up a bit short unfortunately.

[Stuart G]

80. Please think about this one fact............If Dump won by 36 percent in 2016,

and this fellow wins by less than 1 percent..today, then how much have the pukes lost in support in the last 20 months..due to who?..

[Iwasthere]

81. So if there are 3000 provisional, and the margin is about 2000, still doable right?

[Stuart G]

82. Yes, if the provisionals are overwhelming for O'Connor..it is doable..not likely but possible

[Blue_true]

86. Would need to pretty much run the table.

Hopefully Dems study the results and find out whether vote were left on the table for the Dem. Repugh vote seemed to have maxed out.

[krawhitham]

87. Not historically, Dems are +17 in provisional so he would put up 510 votes

3000 * 41.5% = 1245
3000 * 58.5% = 1755

1755 - 1245 =

[roamer65]

84. David Jolly on MSNBC is saying the Repuke party will have to throw some overboard for November.

Limited dollars and they will have to defend more solid Repuke districts.



This is a disaster for Repukes.

[LisaL]

85. This is a very solid republican district. At least it's used to be.

[krawhitham]

88. we lost in 2016 by 36.71%

[Blue_true]

89. Has anyone said where the 4% left in Delaware county is?

Is it close to or away from Columbus?

[krawhitham]

90. Its in, it didn't help