Trump did play a big role in the result in Ohio -- but not the one he wants you to think
By Philip Bump
August 8 at 7:00 AM
It took President Trump very little time to assume credit for Republican Troy Balderson’s apparent victory in Tuesday night’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.
“When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good,” Trump wrote on Twitter a bit after all the precincts were counted. “After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting.”
Most of that is obviously untrue. The early vote was always expected to favor Democrat Danny O’Connor by a wide margin; he won it by about 27 points despite ending the night down a point in the overall vote. No turn for the better in that regard, given that Trump claims the margin was 28 points when he arrived. (It’s not clear how the votes actually broke down. Ohio only offered data on the party composition of the voters returning ballots.)
Nor was there a turn for the better in the polling. Two recent polls showed O’Connor and Balderson within a point of each other, both polls being completed before Trump’s appearance on the scene. It was also not necessarily true at the time Trump wrote his tweet that Balderson would emerge the victor. He’s likely to win, but the race hadn’t been called given the narrow margin.
Trump’s role at the end of the race, though, is a central concern for understanding what’s likely to happen in November’s midterm elections. His pitch is that there is a red wave building, pushed forward in part from sheer enthusiasm for his presidency. Trump last month suggested that he might campaign every day of the week to boost Republican candidates; after all, prior to Tuesday he’d gone 11-for-his-last-11 endorsements. In an election year where Democrats are said to have huge energy propelling them forward, Trump believes that the energy of his base can push right back.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/08/08/trump-did-play-a-big-role-in-the-result-in-ohio-but-not-the-one-he-wants-you-to-think/
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(I know I didn't really need that, but it's getting harder and harder to pull off sarcasm these days
