If Kris Kobach ends up winning KA-GOV-R, COOK POLITICAL moves the races to "TOSS UP"
"This race is in a holding pattern while final absentee ballots are counted, the canvass is conducted, and quite possibly a recount takes place. After the votes were counted in the August 7 GOP primary, Secretary of State Kris Kobach was ahead of Gov. Jeff Colyer by 191 votes. As of August 9, Kobach’s lead had dwindled to 91 votes out of the 311,109 ballots cast. There is no automatic recount law, but Colyer can ask for and pay for one. The problem is that as Secretary of State, Kobach supervises and even determines the cost of recounts. He has said that he isn’t required to recuse himself and therefore won’t. His decision has created terrible optics. If the already controversial Kobach is the nominee, he has handed Democrats yet more fodder with which to attack him (really, the ads write themselves). On the Democratic side, state Sen. Laura Kelly won the nomination with 52 percent of the vote in a five-way field: former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer placed second with 20 percent. Kelly’s message focuses on restoring funding for education. Once the general election actually gets underway, voters are looking at a competitive three-way race with Greg Orman, a businessman who is running as an independent. Orman ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014, giving GOP U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts a competitive race. While Orman could siphon votes away from Kelly, he might also takes some away from Republicans, especially if Kobach is the nominee and some Colyer supporters look for an alternative. The race is currently in the Likely Republican column, but the rating will change once there is a GOP nominee. The question is whether it moves to Lean Republican or Toss Up."
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