Betting markets on probability of tRump leaving office just shot up.

[ffr]

41.32% chance as of today. (live graph linked)
http://odds.watch/trump

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Betfair in agreement with Predictwise on House percentage at 64%

http://odds.watch/democrats-house

As I mentioned when it debuted, I believe Nate Silver's model was way too high at 75%, although it has dropped to 71% subsequently. There has been a drop of 4% in the past three days:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

He was also much too high on the average seats gained at 35. I would have made a major bet, if that had actually been a bettable prop. Now down to 33 and I suspect it will drop to 30 or high 20s eventually.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Perhaps signs of rump leaving office would be to issue ...

pardons for a lot of his buddies (mob bosses etc.)? If this starts happening, how far will Congress allow him to issue possibly an unlimited amount of pardons?

Scary thought...

[oberliner]

3. 36.76 as of last check

[Awsi Dooger]

4. It will continue to drop

Last night carrying into today was overboard hysteria

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Now 34.72% and plummeting

Never wise to overreact to day to day developments.

Ignore today. That's great advice for any handicapper. Always ignore today. Let others write the long ridiculous dissertations on what a game changing development it was