The Blue Wave Rises, Con't. Beto O'Rourke has a real shot against Ted Cruz, and this is why.

[sheshe2]

This is by far the best answer from a politician on exactly why NFL players kneeling is quintessentially an American sports movement, and Beto nails this.

“My short answer is no, I don't think it's disrespectful," O’Rourke said. "Here's my longer answer but I'm gonna try to make sure that I get this right because I think it's a really important question. And reasonable people can disagree on this issue. Let's begin there. And it makes them no less American to come down on a different conclusion on this issue, right?"

"Peaceful, non-violent protests, including taking a knee at a football game to point out that Black men, unarmed, Black teenagers, unarmed and Black children, unarmed, are being killed at a frightening level right now, including by members of law enforcement, without accountability, and without justice," he added. "And this problem – as grave as it is – is not gonna fix itself and they're frustrated, frankly, with people like me, and those in positions of public trust and power, who have been unable to resolve this or bring justice for what has been done and to stop it from continuing to happen in this country. And so non-violently, peacefully, while the eyes of this country are watching these games, they take a knee to bring our attention and our focus to this problem to ensure that we fix it. That is why they are doing it. And I can think of nothing more American than to peacefully stand up, or take a knee, for your rights, any time, anywhere, in any place.”

snip

The day after Cruz's rally, O'Rourke is in Hutchins, a small town in Dallas County. Though he and Cruz are roughly the same age—45 and 47, respectively—O'Rourke looks and talks like a much newer model. The fervor that greets him verges on the messianic. (A state representative speaking at the event invoked Nelson Mandela.) He feels like a candidate tailored for the moment.

His campaign's product—what Beto offers—is an opportunity for dispirited Democrats to take part in something hopeful. But as Election Day has drawn closer, the tone has slowly shifted. It's gotten more urgent and a bit darker. Our country is in peril, he tells the crowd in Hutchins, and if there isn't a change in 2018, things could get worse: The “slip that we took in 2016, if unchecked in 2018, could become a slide,” he says, and “we could lose the things that have made us who we are for 242 years and counting.” Time is running out. “No pressure, folks. The entire fortune and future and fate of this country rests on our shoulders,” he says. O'Rourke calls the 2018 election the “moment of truth.” There is not the slightest bit of ironic distance here, and the crowd loves it. Somehow, it's cathartic.

Read More: http://zandarvts.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-blue-wave-rises-cont_23.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ZVTS+%28Zandar+Versus+The+Stupid%29

…………………………………..

Our future is at stake. Stop with the petty differences and just get the hell out and vote DEMOCRATIC!

“No pressure, folks. The entire fortune and future and fate of this country rests on our shoulders,” he says. O'Rourke calls the 2018 election the “moment of truth.”

'Free Stuff' is never free. Nothing is free, there is always a price.

I love this man.

GOTV!

[Lobo27]

1. I dare say he reminds of a young guy

That made us dream again. Miss him.

[monmouth4]

2. I feel the same way. He is inspiring, young, handsome and smart. What a great combo..n/t

[sheshe2]

3. He was skateboarding the other night too!

Seriously, I like what he is saying and how he says it.

[monmouth4]

4. Saw that, has good balance too....LOL...n/t

[sheshe2]

61. Yep!

[George II]

14. Yes, in the parking lot of a Whataburger - a slap in the face of Ted Cruz!

Beto O’Rourke eats Whataburger, shreds parking lot with skateboard

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Beto-O-Rourke-Whataburger-skateboard-ted-cruz-13168491.php

[sheshe2]

28. I only saw the vid and not the article.

The guy is way cool!!!!

Thanks, George.

[Gothmog]

48. Here is more on the Whataburger issue

From the Houston paper https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-Beto-O-Rourke-Whataburger-spicy-ketchup-13144032.php?utm_campaign=fb-desktop&utm_source=CMS+Sharing+Button&utm_medium=social

Whataburger seems to inject itself into just about any conversation about Texas, so it was only a matter of time before the fast-food chain was dragged into the state's politics.

Ted Cruz's campaign issued a statement to the Star-Telegram on Thursday concerning the likeness of Beto O'Rourke's campaign logo and Whataburger's spicy ketchup.

As many social media users have pointed out, both black and white designs share some similarities.

Link to tweet

[George II]

53. Methinks Cruz bit (haha) off more than he could chew. Don't mess with Texans' burgers!!!

When he wins, will Whataburger have a "Betoburger"? We can start advertising the "Cruz to nowhere".

[Gothmog]

54. Agreed

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

67. Whataburger!!!!!!

[lagomorph777]

141. "Cruz to nowhere". AWESOME!

Print up a thousand bumper stickers. Nice one!

[sheshe2]

65. Ha!

Beto is Spicy Ketchup.


Where as Cruz is milk toast.

[Gothmog]

49. Here is the skateboarding video

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

116. I want some Whataburger

Link to tweet

[George II]

11. I hinted that below before I saw this (post #9) - indeed!

[stopbush]

5. I would like to see Beto invited to join the Dallas Cowboy players on the sideline

for the opening game in Arlington. Let them take a knee in defiance of that asshole Jerry Jones and give the fans somthing to cheer about.

[sheshe2]

29. This!

[gratuitous]

6. O'Rourke is also campaigning at the retail level

He's already gone to every county in Texas, which is a pretty significant criss-crossing of the state. County map here:



Yeah, that's "Holy crap!" stuff right there.

That means going into a lot of little towns and talking directly to voters. You also get to talk to local media and give your story without the Fox News filter. Generate some excitement and buck up the often lonely folks in the remote corners of the state who have been fighting the good fight for years without much to show for it.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. It would be a helluva victory for justice Dems

Last edited Thu Aug 23, 2018, 10:06 PM - Edit history (2)

And Dems all around if he wins.


On edit: err just go with the latter portion of this message.

[George II]

10. Wha'? Justice Democrats didn't endorse him in the Primary or for the General Election

https://www.justicedemocrats.com/candidates

Of course, I would expect that as the race gets closer they'll consider endorsing him to jump on the winning bandwagon.

[sheshe2]

16. Thanks George.

I knew I wasn't crazy. I knew they hadn't endorsed him and came up empty when I googled. He, I guess just is not the pure shoe that fits....until he is a shoe in. Then endorse and claim victory.

[Cha]

25. Yeah, Beto's on his own.. he doesn't need

"justice democrats" horning in.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Wow thats a mistake on their part.

My error.

[NCTraveler]

138. In a long line of mistakes. nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

195. Mistake? I think they do things the way they do them for a reason.

They are mistakes and bad as far as I am concerned because i am a LIBERAL DEMOCRAT, but I think they do things that ...never mind

[Cha]

22. "justice democrats" Just NO. cenk uygur's brainchild until he got

kicked out for his sexist past.

[Tiggeroshii]

23. Well it's a nice idea

[ehrnst]

143. Why? (nt)

[Tiggeroshii]

146. Not taking corporate corporate contributions is a nice idea.

[ehrnst]

148. Sexism is OK, tho? (nt)

[Tiggeroshii]

149. No. Sexism is not okay.

Last edited Wed Aug 29, 2018, 03:20 AM - Edit history (1)

Not taking corporate contributions is. Um Where did I lose you in that sentence?

[ehrnst]

150. "Well it's a nice idea"

Last edited Wed Aug 29, 2018, 07:55 AM - Edit history (1)

was your response to:

"justice democrats" Just NO. cenk uygur's brainchild until he got

kicked out for his sexist past.

[Tiggeroshii]

151. Right. The "not taking money from corporations is a nice idea."

Again. Where did I lose you in that sentence?

[ehrnst]

152. You didn't answer my question about your response to "sexist past"

which was "nice idea."

Where did I lose you in that exchange?

[Tiggeroshii]

154. What part of "no sexism is not okay" did you not understand?

[ehrnst]

155. Um... you didn't say that in response to me when I said "why?"

You said, "Not taking corporate corporate contributions is a nice idea."

You said "Sexism is not OK" after I clarified for you what I was referring to, and accepted that, but you have been continually insulting since.

I get that you may have mistyped, or perhaps were thinking you were responding to another post. And while that's embarassing, I don't think it's really appropriate to take it out on someone who asked for clarifiation on what you were talking about.

[Tiggeroshii]

157. Sorry no intent to be insulting. That was what I figured your intention was.

I felt my intentions were being intentionally misconstrued since my responses seems obvious that I was not advocating sexism. Simply, "it was a nice idea without the sexism" might have been a better way to put it.

[ehrnst]

159. Thank you for the apology.

Accepted.

[Tiggeroshii]

160. Thank you.

[ehrnst]

85. That's one way to up a very poor record.. (nt)

[Eliot Rosewater]

103. Surely they support him NOW?

Seriously, if not why are they even ALLOWED to use the word
"Democrats?"

[sheshe2]

12. How so?

I see no where that, Justice Democrats, OR or Brand New Congress have endorsed him. I see you did a lower case for the title Justice Democrats. Why?

[Tiggeroshii]

21. I was mistaken

But he doesnt take corporate money and has spoken against PAC funds for his campaign which is the only reason i foolishly thought as much.

[sheshe2]

27. Thanks for your response.

Doubt he would want their help. Those groups will support anyone and they stated as much. OR just backed an Indie against a Dem. Both groups said they will back Republicans as well. Do you know of any Rep that is progressive? I don't… nor would I trust a GOP candidate if they said they were.

[George II]

34. Brand New Congress endorsed a republican in the Arkansas primary back in May....

....he lost.

They've also endorsed an independent in Tennessee's 2nd District who is running against a Democrat and republican.

[sheshe2]

35. Dark groups.

Not at all for Democrats. They have branched off on their own. I don't want anything to do with them.

I vote Democratic.

[sheshe2]

39. Thanks for the info, George.

Two groups have 'Democrat' in their group name. They aren't.

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Rep who is progressive-ish

They are few and far between obviously, but they exist. California has a majority republican supreme court but one of the more progressive in the country.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tani_Cantil-Sakauye

On edit: for the purpose of your argument i cannot think of any -and any republican should absolutely not be considered for any element of federal office given our current situation.

[sheshe2]

40. Agree.

Yet will also say that given our current situation and those GOPers that look away are complicit in allowing a hostile country to take over our house, senate and oval office. They willingly allowed our elections to be hacked. I will never trust one of them. Not ever.

The fact that the groups I mentioned are backing ANYONE other than a Democrat should be considered the enemy, especially now. We vote for and support Democrats on this board.

[Tiggeroshii]

43. I hear you loud and clear

We should definitely be looking at the candidates themselves as opposed to the groups that support them.
We are counting on a number of OR and BNC candidates to help us win back the house at this point, and I suppose we should be looking at the value those general election candidates will bring to us as oppose to the groups that endorse them.

[sheshe2]

50. No.

I believe it was you that talked about Beto not receiving pac money. That tells me that you are looking directly at who a candidate is supported by.

We should definitely be looking at the candidates themselves as opposed to the groups that support them.
We are counting on a number of OR and BNC candidates to help us win back the house at this point, and I suppose we should be looking at the value those general election candidates will bring to us as oppose to the groups that endorse them.

We do not know where OR. DNC and JD are getting their money , yet we do know they do not focus on Democrats. They support Independents to run against Democrats. They also throw their support behind Republicans. I will not support any group that puts their weight behind a Republican,,,,especially in this climate.

Democratic UnderGround Supports Democrats.

[Tiggeroshii]

55. I think you missed my point.

I dont think we disagree. Just because i pointed out that Beto does not take corporate campaign contributions or Pacs does not mean i wouldnt support him if he did. We need to support ALL GE democrats even if they happen to be supported by the groups you dislike. The alternative IS supporting a republican. You do not need to support the group to focus on the candidate.

[sheshe2]

60. Those groups have said they will and have endorsed REPUBLICANS!

I will question any candidate they put up. In the general I will support a Democrat. These candidates are from states not my own, though I hear they will support a few in my state. My choice is clear. Warren. Markey. Kennedy. Period.

[Tiggeroshii]

70. I respect that position

You might not like those groups -and you present many good reasons not to, but we need to stick together for the general election candidates. We can't afford otherwise.

[sheshe2]

75. I have never in my life not supported the DEMOCRATIC candidate in the GE.

Not ONCE!

Others failed that test in 2016 and we got trump. You are talking to the wrong person here. Talk to the ones that wrote in names, the ones that voted third party and the ones that just sat on their ass and just did not vote, because HILLARY!

[ehrnst]

86. So why do you think that the groups that support them take credit

for their victory?

[Tiggeroshii]

87. Probably because they help fund them.

And when they win it gives them a sense of credibility regardless of whether they are deserved.

[Gothmog]

96. I have been invited to at least two high dollar fundraisers for Beto by trial lawyer friends

Beto is getting a great deal support from the key groups who normally fund Democratic candidates

[Tiggeroshii]

100. Good!

[ehrnst]

129. The orgs suport candidates "because the orgs fund them?" Circular logic...

You aren't talking about Democratic Socialists of America are you? No, they don't fund candidates. They simply "endorse" candidates.

Again... why do you think those groups take credit when the candidate is elected, especially when they were endorsed by what some refer to as "establisment" groups like Planned Parenthood, EMILYs List and Onward Together?

[Tiggeroshii]

130. Oh right cause they endorse them.

[ehrnst]

131. ???

[Tiggeroshii]

132. Im as confused as you are.

An organization takes credit for when their endorsed candidate wins because they endorsed them. That's actually pretty straightforward.

[ehrnst]

158. But what orgs are you talking about that "fund" candidates?

I'm once again confused by your post...

To clarify (and don't get mad): You stated that orgs funded a winning candidate can claim that they "choose winners." I'm not talking about that.

I'm talking about orgs/individuals that endorse a candidate that wins, and claims that it validates their own ideas. That may be true if they were endorsing that candidate from early on... That's the idea behind EMILYs list, is that if a candidate gets early money, that is often a tipping point for others to donate.

But what about an organization or individual that jumps in to support a candidate at the end of the campaign, after many other orgs and indivduals have endorsed, and after the polls showed the candidate was leading, claiming that it was that it was "their candidate" and won because of their endorsement?

It could be the org/or individual is seeking credit as "the reason" for the candidate win, by means of associating themselves with a candidate who was already out front. If candidates that latecomer org/individual endorsed from the start weren't winning very often, that would certainly be one way to bolster the case for their influence, only backing those very likely to win.

Much like a sub quarterback going in to a playoff game to replace the injured quarterback with 10 seconds on the clock, 7 points up, and takes credit as the player who "led the team to win the championship."

[Gothmog]

47. But he is doing high dollar fund raisers with major donors

I have been invited to several being held by the normal large donors including some major league Hillraisers.

[Gothmog]

46. Not in the real world

Beto is not part of Justice Democrats or Our Revolution

[herding cats]

8. Beto is the real deal.

I have never been this excited to work and vote for a local candidate ever in my life!

Watching him catch fire suddenly is filling my heart with joy and even hope.

He's not taking PAC money, so if you can donate we'd really appreciate it! Every little bit helps.


https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dw4betoo2018

In state sign up here: https://betofortexas.com/

[Gothmog]

192. Great editorial from one of my son's classmates

Link to tweet

[George II]

9. He certainly does connect with the voters - like a combination of Obama and Trudeau.

Go Beto!

[Gothmog]

45. Here is another town hall in another mainly white part of Houston

Link to tweet

[Cha]

13. It brought tears to my eyes when I saw it, she..

Link to tweet

Mahalo!

[sheshe2]

20. He wanted to get the answer right.

Bless his heart, he did, Cha.

[Gothmog]

44. I love the comment from Steve Schmidt

[Cha]

57. Yes, I stole it from

your thread on Beto.

Thank You! Sorry!

[Gothmog]

59. No problem

[mahina]

82. Me too.

So reminds me of Bobby, and lifts my heart. It’s poetry.

Imagine the Dotard trying to respond, even if he would.

Good luck Beto!

[SkyDancer]

15. I donated to Beto

Ted Cruz is a piece of crap. I am hoping he GTFO out of DC the way Eric Cantor did

[sheshe2]

41. Excellent!

[pamela]

83. I donated to Beto, too!

I swore after my last contributions to a candidate who deeply disappointed me *coughjohnedwardscough* that I would never donate money again. I've done GOTV stuff since but no money. Until now. It wasn't much but, Go Beto!

[McCamy Taylor]

18. In a fair election he would win. Texas has a lot of no paper trail e-voting and history of blatant

e-vote tabulation fraud. So, Beto will have to be well ahead in the polls with no third party splitter to whom the GOP can siphon votes. But ,yeah, this election it is possible. Cruz is such a loser. I see NO Cruz signs and lots of Beto signs (including in my front yard).

[Catherine Vincent]

19. Gosh I hope he wins

All the polls I see say he is 4% behind. Let's hope the polls are wrong.

#Beto

[herding cats]

26. That's extremely good for this point in the election.

He's just now doing ad buys and getting national attention. 30 something percent of people polled haven't heard of him yet in the state. That's about to change in a big way!

Even Ellen wants to meet him! That'll be huge boost for him!

I can't explain it, but once you meet him he has a magic about him that lures you into his focus and hope. He's extremely inspirational and genuine.

[sheshe2]

30. It ain't easy.

My bet is on Beto. He will do what he can. That he is only 4% behind in Texas is amazing.

herding cats. make it our win!

[herding cats]

33. I'm doing what I can down here!

We want him, and he's gaining which is good news!

Cross your fingers and spread the word. With no money from PACs we need all hands on deck!

[sheshe2]

42. With ya hon!

[herding cats]

66. I know you are!

I want you to know it is appreciated. I'm glad you're a part of our village!

[sheshe2]

69. Can't give money...

Yet rooting for the home team!

[herding cats]

72. You don't have to!

Just keep us out there and talk about us on the places you post. That's all I'm asking. Every person you mention us to helps. That's how this works! Beto is a strong candidate in his own right. We just need exposure.

[sheshe2]

76. We can do this!

[herding cats]

77. Yes, we can.

In this case we've went from a long shot to a toss up. The formal election season starts after Labor Day, but that's just for the people who aren't paying attention. Beto started doing town halls in January 2017. He's been working that long at this.

I think we're at like 34% of the local population were focusing on now. The unengaged ones who only show up at the end of a cycle. We siphon enough of those off and this can actually happen.

I've been down this road before in this state. We're in an extremely good position right now and the next 74 days are crunch time. It's do or die now.

[Gothmog]

64. Same here

[herding cats]

68. Oh, I know that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Your efforts dwarf mine, and I'm humbled by all you're doing and beyond greatful!

I can't recall if I've ever said this to you here before, but if not it's most definitely past time. Without people like you, and you specifically, out there volunteering doing the hard legal work to keep our elections functioning in this state, we'd never have a chance. Which isn't to take away from your other work you do here for candidates and the Democratic Party.

All the gains we do make in this state this year are a collaborative effort, but I want you to know I, personally, very deeply appreciate your dedication and hard work. You've helped make our progress possible.

[ismnotwasm]

24. K&R

[ucrdem]

31. It's been 15 years since Texas had a Dem senator

the last being Robert Kreuger, who appears to have finished Lloyd Bentsen's term in 1993, but they had plenty before that (27 out of 34 total) so this one looks doable. Go Beto!

https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Texas

[sheshe2]

32. 15 years.

We have a shot. Come on voters, you can do this. Beto is for all the people.

Turn that seat BLUE!

[Gothmog]

51. It has been 25 years since last Texas Democratic Senator

I remember for Senator Bentsen and Bob Kruger. My mom graduated from the same small high school as Senator Bentsen

[ucrdem]

73. bv golly

so it is. And 30 years since Bentsen demolished that birdbrain Quail, wow. Does tempis fugit or what??

[Gothmog]

78. No problem

I remember these campaigns

[Gothmog]

36. This event took place in a very conservative and white part of Houston

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

38. Wow.

Beto talked passionately about things that I've never heard any other politician talk about.

[Gothmog]

52. Here is another town hall in Fort Bend county

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

56. The man in the picture with Beto is Art Pronin who was a delegate with me to the National Convention

Art did a great job of organizing this town hall for Beto

Link to tweet

[Cha]

58. Good to know! Gracias,

Goth!

[Gothmog]

63. Art has built the Meyerland club into a powerhouse

[Cha]

74. Just What We Need!

[Gothmog]

62. The four minutes that crystallized @BetoORourke's appeal

This is a great article about the NFL answer

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

71. Okay.

This made me weep, tears of joy.

As the plaudits piled up, two stood out to me. One came from former Republican consultant Steve Schmidt, who tweeted, “Take a minute to watch a political leader with conviction and integrity address a divisive issue.”

The other one came from Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, a devout Christian and unabashed social conservative.

I would have expected Warner to balk at O’Rourke’s defense of the national-anthem protests. But Warner posted the clip and tweeted that O’Rourke “hit the nail on the head & he did so not by dividing the 2 sides but by joining them together.”

then this!

Of course, the issue is not whether you stand for the anthem yourself, but whether you respect the rights of others to refrain from standing. Cruz is smart enough to understand that distinction. But in the era of wedge politics, the wedge is his friend.

https://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/gilbert_garcia/article/The-four-minutes-that-crystallized-O-Rourke-s-13178607.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS%20Sharing%20Button&utm_medium=social

[Gothmog]

79. I also really liked this article

[Gothmog]

80. Beto O'Rourke's defense of NFL national anthem protests draws support from LeBron James

this is a great endorsement

Link to tweet

[duforsure]

81. Beto is a leader, a statesman,

Cruz is a liar, and no one that lies that much that isn't corrupt. Just a matter of time for Cruz if it comes out he's involved ,and if he's taken any money from putin, funneled to him , for his campaign. I think Cruz could be in a world of trouble if he has . I don't see Cruz winning unless putin has his hackers rig it for him . The KGOP are a criminal organization , and hate groups now. Cruz also will continue to vote against the working people , and they want to destroy Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Beto doesn't. Easy choice.

[ehrnst]

84. Lord a politician who isn't trying to promise the moon.

Good on Beto!

[sheshe2]

88. Good to see, isn't it ehrnst.

I like this man who has traveled to every district in his state working for Texans.

Brilliant.

[Gothmog]

89. Beto ask for a moment of silence for Senator McCain

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

90. Love this man.

How I want him to win.

[Gothmog]

92. Here are more of Beto's comments about Senator McCain

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

97. Beautiful.

Gothmog, do you have any recent poll numbers?

[Gothmog]

102. Beto is within 4 points

It is hard to poll Texas because Texas is so large. There are four major media markets in Texas and ton of ground

[George II]

110. A nice tribute, especially what he said after the moment of silence...

...a good man.

BTW, I've seen a few videos of him the last few days. I see he allows the press into each of them.

[ananda]

91. K&R

If people who haven't voted historically turn out,
O'Rourke can win.

Getting out the vote won't be easy. I think it can
be done, but it will take a massive effort.

[sheshe2]

93. I so hope them come out in record numbers and the GOP stays home.

Texas can do this, Ananda!

[Gothmog]

99. Navasota is not a Democratic stronghold

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

104. Brilliant strategy.

Pretty amazing man...that even Navasota he pulls in a large crowd.

[Gothmog]

94. From Wendy Davis

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

106. From your link.

Beto O’Rourke is a prolific, prodigious sweater. We’re talking shirt-soaking, chin-dripping sweat, most visible as he takes questions from the audiences that have gathered to see him across Texas. When I first saw pictures of O’Rourke, the El Paso congressman currently vying for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, soaking through his blue dress shirt at the Houston Juneteenth Parade, I thought: This is the most Texas thing I’ve ever seen.

Rather than recoiling, his supporters see it as a badge of honor — proof of how relentlessly he’s campaigning to win over every voter in the second-largest state in the union. “You’ve got to work to sweat!” one captioned a photo on Instagram. “Ted Cruz don’t sweat like Beto does!”

When O’Rourke speaks on the stump, he punctuates his points by moving his left hand up and down, like he’s directing traffic. His voice isn’t particularly melodic; he’s Lincoln-lanky; he lacks the preacher’s cadence that marked former president Obama’s speeches. But O’Rourke’s energy is palpable, infectious; his sweat is the physical evidence of that energy leaving his body. And it seems to be working. Even as he struggles with a continued lack of name recognition, in a state that has consistently voted Republican for the past three decades, recent polling places O’Rourke just two to six points behind Cruz. Among volunteers, there’s cautious yet barely contained glee: Could O’Rourke pull off an upset that, just six months before, seemed impossible?

[Gothmog]

107. Wendy Davis would have been a great governor

[sheshe2]

109. I was following her back then and I agree.

One amazing woman.

[oasis]

95. The kind of Democrat we can all get behind 100%. One who

"Takes care of biz where he is".

[sheshe2]

101. I like him more everytime I see him...

and listen to his words.

Oasis.

[Gothmog]

98. This is from Huntsville which is not know to be a Democratic stronghold in Texas

Link to tweet

[peggysue2]

105. Absolutely agree, sheshe

O'Rourke's answer to the the NFL question, the nature of 'taking a knee', was clear, passionate and unequivocal in his position. Yet, he answered the woman with respect. More than I would've had frankly.

He also shattered that false, Republican/Trumpster framing that the act of kneeling is all about disrespecting our veterans, flag and country by dipping back into our history, evoking the Civil Rights Movement, MLK, Rosa Parks, etc and the importance and impact of peaceful protest in support of basic human rights.

It was a powerful, effective moment, an argument done better than anyone else thus far. No weasel words, no slipping and sliding nor tap-dancing elements. Just straight up truth.

Facts do matter despite the ongoing propaganda. And honesty is a virtue. O'Rourke gets high marks in both departments which is why he has a surprisingly good chance of unseating the odious Cruz.

Btw, I read that Cruz has requested Trump's help in campaigning for him. After the Trumpster insulted his wife and disrespected his father. Smells like desperation to me!

[sheshe2]

108. I am in awe of the man.

This is going to be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

Also the debates?! Sounds like Cruz is hesitant and wants them held on Friday nights. Less people watching?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Will-Ted-Cruz-and-Beto-O-Rourke-debate-next-13181534.php

I hope we pull this off.

GOTV Texas

[Awsi Dooger]

111. Interesting 538 discussion on what it takes to flip an unlikely state

This Beto/Cruz discussion is from April but it applies overall and I think analytical types will appreciate it, even though the more emotional types might not.

There is plenty of talk regarding changing states and what differentiates them, whether it's a one-off switch or something more logical and long term.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-does-it-take-to-flip-a-state-from-red-to-blue-or-blue-to-red/

Overall Texas is described as a meaningful Demographic switch but Nate believes it is probably unlikely for Beto. I agree completely with Nate's summary of the terrain, described here:

natesilver: So the way I see it is something like this: Texas has a 12-point Republican lean, but the national environment favors Democrats by, say, 9 points, but then Cruz has like a 5-point incumbency advantage (slightly less than normal). So that would put Cruz ahead by mid-to-high single digits. That’s my prior, anyway.

[sheshe2]

112. I hope we prove Nate wrong.

[Awsi Dooger]

113. I wish it were an open race

If you look at Nate's summary, virtually all of Cruz' advantage sources from incumbency. That's what makes it so uphill and unlikely. If this were an open race then Beto would only need a 3-5 point candidate-to-candidate edge, instead of the exponentially more unlikely 8-10

[Gothmog]

115. Ted Cruz is not liked in Texas

[Awsi Dooger]

174. Balanced overall but very high disapproval numbers

Somewhat like Trump. People who hate Cruz really hate him. No need to ask why.

Here are some numbers from Texas Politics. They poll the state every year and not merely in regard to political races, so I trust their sampling and overall findings. This is from June:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/201806_poll_uttt_toplines.pdf

Q22. Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable
nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Ted Cruz.

1. Very favorable 23%
2. Somewhat favorable 18
3. Neither favorable nor unfavorable 10
4. Somewhat unfavorable 8
5. Very unfavorable 34
6. Don’t know/no opinion 7

Q23. Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable
nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Beto O’Rourke.

1. Very favorable 22%
2. Somewhat favorable 15
3. Neither favorable nor unfavorable 16
4. Somewhat unfavorable 8
5. Very unfavorable 16
6. Don’t know/no opinion 24

***

But here is the main problem Beto faces. I look at ideology at least tenfold above any other variable. There are simply too many damn conservatives in Texas, equating to very, very, very low margin for error for someone like Beto in a federal race, since voters treat federal races like a mini presidency.

From the same link:

LIBCON. On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4
is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself? [Wording on scale: (1) “Extremely
liberal,” (4) “In the middle,” (7) “Extremely conservative”]

1. Extremely liberal 10%
2. Somewhat liberal 13
3. Lean liberal 8
4. In the middle 26
5. Lean conservative 9
6. Somewhat conservative 18
7. Extremely conservative 17

***

That's the reality, the 13% gap between Texans who label themselves some type of liberal (31%) and the ones who self-identify as conservatives (44%).

Texas is stubbornly not changing in terms of percentage of voters who call themselves conservative. This 44% number is the same from the 2016 exit poll. I always quote that 44% in regard to Texas. It is the reason I am not a believer in Texas' transition away from a red state. I have followed this closely since 1992 and every truly shifting state -- either way -- first demonstrates a move in ideology. The dominant side starts to drop. In Texas not only is that not taking place, but a full 35% still call themselves either Extremely or Somewhat conservative. Those are not the weak categories.

Maybe it will drop below 44% in this year's exit poll. Probably will, in a decisively blue year. But unless that 44% drops to 40% or lower in the exit poll I think it is mostly a blip and will bump up to at least 42% in 2020.

Arizona is next on the flip list in terms of presidential level. Texas is so far behind it is not worth mentioning the two together.

[Gothmog]

183. For this thread

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

186. I'm a numbers guy and foundational variables guy

Those things point to Cruz. Obviously in this case I hope the short term variables and passion prevail.

But if I had to wager -- and I might -- it would be on the other side

[Gothmog]

119. Ted Cruz has never stopped running for POTUS

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

126. Uuugh!

[Gothmog]

114. is Ted Cruz the Zodiac Killer?

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

117. Thanks for keeping my post kicked, gothmog.

[Gothmog]

118. I'm from Texas!

Last edited Mon Aug 27, 2018, 09:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

120. Junior is an asshole.

Ya know what won't fly in Texas? Pigs like him.


………………………………

I just posted this to you elsewhere....

Beto.

[Gothmog]

122. Junior needs to go to prison for a while

[sheshe2]

123. yep!

[Gothmog]

136. Look at the crowd at this event

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

121. What is Carnival Cruz afraid of?

Link to tweet

[ehrnst]

124. I LOVE that name for him! (nt)

[honest.abe]

125. Looks like Bobby Kennedy.

I have a very good feeling about this guy.

[sheshe2]

127. I do too, abe!

[Gothmog]

128. New polling

Link to tweet

[MBS]

133. I also love Beto.

and I think he's going to win.
First, he deserves to.
Second, we need him.
Third, so far, he's doing EVERYTHING right in his campaign.

[sheshe2]

134. I agree with you...

wholeheartedly.

Thanks, MBS!

[Gothmog]

135. Beto has an article in Houston paper talking about his youthful indiscretions

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

137. Carnival Cruz is having issues in fundraising

Link to tweet

[Scurrilous]

139. K&R

[LanternWaste]

140. Beto and Wendy Davis have put the step back into the Texas Democratic machine.

After his county-by-county tour, it's almost impossible to live in TX and NOT know who he is.

[Gothmog]

142. Beto O'Rourke video gets him an audience with Ellen DeGeneres

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

144. Cruz Allies Sound the Alarm

This makes me smile https://politicalwire.com/2018/08/28/cruz-allies-sound-the-alarm/

“Republicans are sounding the alarm about Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s closer-than-expected reelection contest, with an influential conservative group racing to his aid,” Politico reports.

“The Club for Growth, a Washington-based anti-tax group, is drawing up plans for a major TV ad campaign boosting Cruz — the first such intervention by a Republican outside group in this race. The move comes as Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, an online fundraising behemoth who has attracted national support, continues to narrow the gap in polling.”

[sheshe2]

145. Hot dayum.

Go Beto. Go Texas.

[mcar]

147. I really like Beto

Cruz is such a small, nasty little man by comparison.

[workinclasszero]

153. Go Beto!

GOTV Texas dems!

[Gothmog]

161. Carnival Cruz tried to use Beto's band against him

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

162. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

163. Carnival Cruz' classmates really hated him

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

164. Can someone explain this Carnival Cruz ad for me?

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

165. A county GOP thinks that this helps Carnival Cruz

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

166. Tough Guy?

[Gothmog]

167. I am so confused

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

168. Could Texas finally flip blue?

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

171. THIS!

Poll of the week
A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/?ex_cid=story-twitter

[Gothmog]

169. Trump is coming to Texas to campaign for Carnival Cruz

This is great news for Beto and shows that Carnival Cruz is worried

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

170. With Donnies approval rating plummeting...

He may not be that much help!!!!I so want to see him crushed!

[Gothmog]

172. I just got my first e-mail from the Texas Democratic Party on this

The Texas state Democratic Party will have fun tying Carnival Cruz to trump

[Gothmog]

173. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

177. I like this idea

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

182. That would be fantastic!

[Gothmog]

181. From David Hogg

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

184. From my twitter feed

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

175. O'Rourke: Texas should lead the way on true criminal justice reform [Opinion]

It seems that some non-democrats are trying to make a big deal about Beto. Beto is a three term congressman. The info about his DWI was known in El Paso and Beto is not hiding it. This editorial was printed in the Houston paper on August 22, 2018 https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Beto-ORourke-Texas-criminal-justice-reform-jail-13181472.php

Twenty-three years ago I was arrested for attempted forcible entry after jumping a fence at the University of Texas at El Paso. I spent a night in the El Paso County Jail, was able to make bail the next day, and was released. Three years later, I was arrested for drunk driving — a far more serious mistake for which there is no excuse.

But those mistakes did not ultimately define me or stop me from what I wanted to do in my life or how I wanted to contribute to the success of my family and my community — as a father, small business owner, city council member, and congressman. The chance that I had, and which I have made the most of, is denied to too many of our fellow Texans, particularly those who don’t look like me or have access to the same opportunities that I did.

On Wednesday, I toured the Harris County Jail with Sheriff Ed Gonzalez and met men from this community who have made a mistake from which they may or may not recover. Men who don’t have the resources to post bail. Some of whom got arrested on purpose to get the treatment and care they need, care they won’t be able to afford or access on the outside. In fact, the Harris County Jail is the largest provider of mental health services in our state, a state that is the least insured in the nation. Of the 10,000 inmates in the Harris County Jail, one quarter of them are being prescribed at least one psychotropic medication. The jail has more people receiving psychiatric treatment every day than the nine state mental hospitals in Texas combined.

Beto is open and honest about this incident I like the fact that he is working for reform of the criminal justice system

[sheshe2]

176. Did you post this as an OP?

If not you should.

I heard all this from you originally and then saw the OP you refer to.

[Gothmog]

178. Yep

I posted this in the editorial section

I guess I could post it as LBN since it only 23 years old

[Gothmog]

179. The Beto Song

This song is great

Link to tweet

[sheshe2]

180. That was awesome!

[LAS14]

185. Am I right that on top of it all he's tall??? nt

[Gothmog]

187. I have met Beto several times including at the National Convention

He is tall

[Gothmog]

188. I love this mobile billboard

Link to tweet

[Quixote1818]

189. Beto looks like a Texan. It may sound trivial but he has the right look and demeanor to him

I have a lot of relatives in Texas and he just reminds me of the clean cut kids I see in Dallas and Fort Worth. Cruz would look out of place anywhere on the planet.

[sheshe2]

190. Thanks, not from Texas, yet know some people there.

Yes, he looks to be about Texas...and as someone said above, he sweats like a Texan.

He is good people, I hope he wins for Texan's sake. He has been all over that state. To me it shows he cares.

[Gothmog]

193. Go Beto

Link to tweet

[R B Garr]

191. Great thread, she! He is exciting. nt

[Gothmog]

194. Read @BetoORourke's story of his DUI... and what it taught him about criminal justice reform.

The TDP had Beto put this a couple of weeks ago

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

196. From Ellen-I think you'll be hearing a lot more from @BetoORourke.

Link to tweet