Gallup Trump Weekly Job Approval 41% Disapproval 54% (- 3)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx



I see lots of folks bemoaning the fact Trump's approval is as high as it is. As long as the economy is performing reasonably well he is not going to see George W. Bush or Nixon numbers. The backdrop to Watergate was a recession.

A normal president, be it a Hillary Clinton or a Marco Rubio, would be enjoying an approval rating over fifty percent with this economy.

[redstatebluegirl]

1. I think we have to remember that very few Americans identify as Republican.

[Arkansas Granny]

4. And those who do identify as Republicans have convinced themselves that

the economic recovery is due to Trump alone. President Obama had nothing to do with it.

[Fred Sanders]

5. The R pond is shrinking...counting the same number of fish in a smaller pond means a higher %.

Are pollsters adjusting for this which could easily be done by including more Independents or unaffiliated?

I believe the polling is being skewed...90% of Republicans approve of Shitler??

Yes, true...but Only in a shrinking fetid swamp.

[unblock]

2. Agreed. His numbers are atrocious given the state of the economy and the stock market.

If we were in a recession he'd be toast.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. If he were a normal GOP president ...

If he were a normal GOP president our chances of flipping the House would likely be zero.

[unblock]

11. agreed. one of the things that's sometimes perplexing is how republicans can like him

given how utterly incompetent he is. i mean, i can understand liking his policies (even though i disagree with them strongly), but if i liked his policies, i'd be extremely frustrated and disappointed at how inept he was in delivering practically anything.

fortunately, though, that's what's saving the country. we'd be sunk if he were actually capable at delivering on his evil agenda.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The nihlistic burn it all down crowd like him.

That's the lion's share of his forty percent support. The rest of his support comes from those who are doing okay and couldn't care less out our civic culture.

[unblock]

13. fair point. for all their complaints about moral relativism,

their moral compass has become "if liberals like it, we're against it."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. They would eat their own waste if liberals had to smell it.

[unblock]

15. then let's offer to smell it!

[jayschool2013]

27. He's been very effective

at destroying the environment: NY Times story and jailing innocent children.

Since taking office last year, President Trump has made eliminating federal regulations a priority. His administration, with help from Republicans in Congress, has often targeted environmental rules it sees as overly burdensome to the fossil fuel industry, including major Obama-era policies aimed at fighting climate change.

To date, the Trump administration has sought to reverse more than 70 environmental rules, according to a New York Times analysis, based on research from Harvard Law School’s Environmental Regulation Rollback Tracker, Columbia Law School’s Climate Tracker and other sources.

The Environmental Protection Agency has been involved in more than a third of the policy reversals identified by The Times. Scott Pruitt, the head of the E.P.A. who spearheaded the administration’s agenda of environmental deregulation, resigned after facing a number of ethics scandals. Andrew Wheeler, the new acting chief of the agency, is a former coal lobbyist who also wants to roll back environmental regulations.

Rules targeted for reversal so far include key Obama-era efforts to curb planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, as well as broader air and water pollution controls and protections for threatened animals and habitats. The Trump administration has, in many instances, pared back these regulations in favor of more expansive energy extraction policies — often as a direct response to petitions from oil, gas and coal companies. Mr. Trump has argued that supporting the fossil fuel industry strengthens the economy.

[unblock]

29. many things will take a long time to repair.

even basics such as rebuilding our federal bureaucracy.

i suppose if dismantling and neglecting and destroying our environment, our infrastructure, our social fabric, etc. is the goal, then ok, he's effective, just not though actual legislation.

the good news is the executive orders and such can be quickly reversed by a democratic president. the bad news is that air and water can't be cleaned with the stroke of a pen....

[John Fante]

6. Clinton '98 is the closet comparison to Trump.

He oversaw no major wars and the economy was kicking mondo ass. He was also mired in a scandal that threatened his presidency.

The result: Clinton's approval rating in 1998 rarely strayed under 60%, pushing 70% by the end of the year.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Clinton wanted everybody to love him.

Trump seems to want everybody to hate him but his rabid base.

[0rganism]

8. i think he feeds off the hate at least as much as the adoration

and when he holds a rally, his cult of adoring manbaby minions can shower hatred on the haters, and he gets off double on that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. He is deliberately polarizing.

That is a departure from all his modern predecessors, including Nixon.

[0rganism]

10. he counts any damn thing as a win if he's the star of the show

the only thing that could really snuff him out would be people ignoring him altogether.

[unblock]

30. add that to the list of ironies -- they called *hillary* polarizing and then went for donnie!

[Elwood P Dowd]

16. Last week was his worse ever, and I keep seeing these 41 and 46 percent approval ratings?

How in the fuck can these numbers be accurate after last week?

As Vince Lombardi said......

&frags=pl%2Cwn

[ProfessorGAC]

18. The 46 Is Bogus Elwood

There's a thread here, today. I found two major demographic flaws and other posters found at least 2 more.

The sampling is not even close to representational on that poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Gallup is right in line with 538 poll of polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[ProfessorGAC]

20. I Didn't Look Up The Gallup Data

But, i did look up Rasmussen and the NBC/WSJ poll. Both grossly distorted their demographic. Age and race were both WAY off for both.
And 538 might have them centered, yet they only give Galllup a B. They give NBC/WSJ an A, yet just this morning i found several examples of flawed sampling.

[Garrett78]

28. Look at the graphs at 538. His rating has been incredibly steady. It really doesn't matter...

...what he does or says. Cult45 doesn't care.

[marylandblue]

17. Backdrop also included gas shortages and US withdrawal from South Vietnam followed by continued war

World seemed like it was going to hell in a handbasket back then. To do something similar, Trump would have to invade Iran and lose.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Stock market is up another 1% today

OP is correct, the economy is holding up Trump's approval rating. If we desperately attempt to twist the polls and pretend they are wrong, we are wasting time and fooling ourselves.

This is not November 2017, when Trump was at lowest. He reached 35% in Gallup four times, the last being mid December 2017, exactly during the time frame of that Alabama senate race. If that Alabama senate race had been run in this environment nearly 9 months later, then Roy Moore wins and he probably wins by at least 3-5 points. A few people per hundred change their minds and shift from one side to another. That's all it takes. It is what James Comey did to Hillary.

I can live with 41%. I think we are okay toward the House at 41%. I'm not kidding myself that it can go markedly lower, not without that N-word tape showing up. I knew all along that it didn't matter how outrageous Trump continued to be, the nation would slowly become more accepting of it and the approval rating would logically change even if Trump didn't change. I posted that late last year, to quite a bit of objection here and elsewhere. But I've seen it with successful blowhard football coaches and similar. If people are happy with the bottom line of their lives they slowly lose distaste for their boss or landlord or whomever. Urban Meyer as a multi national champ can skate amidst lookaway. A middling coach with the same behavior would be thrown out of the 'shoe without second thought.

I really wish we could have pushed that button in November 2017 and frozen Trump's approval at 37.3% I think I remember that figure from the time. The 44 range is where I start to get nervous. We've had too many non-adjusted 44s in the mix recently.

[lagomorph777]

22. For most Americans, "The Economy" is not the stock market. It's the paycheck and the bills.

The Stock Market is that abstraction they talk about on those cable TV channels that nobody cares about. The paycheck and the bills are not moving in the right direction, and most of us are aware that a big tax hike (masquerading as a "cut" ) is looming.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Wages are stagnant but the economy isn't awful. We're not in a recession.

That's not to say that the gap between the haves and have less(es) isn't widening.

[Awsi Dooger]

35. I'm not talking about most Americans

This is all about small shifts in public opinion, i.e. something responsible for 41 approval rating instead of 37.

Let's face it, if the market drops 800 points one day next week then malaise is going to have a thread about it smack in the middle of this forum, and it's going to be bumped all day with dozens of chirping responses, and projections that we are in the early stages of a major inevitable collapse. Given that reality I fail to understand why an offhand convenient reference to a 1% gain today in the stock market is so out of bounds.

If you want me to use other economic indicators, that's no problem either. Here's one from a few weeks ago, including a chart:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-creeps-close-to-18-year-high-2018-07-31

"Consumer confidence creeps back near 18-year high"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Mueller has a lot of credibility. America loves a winner.

If he was to issue a damning report or a damning report leaked Trump could test his Charlottesviille and Roy Moore lows. I also believe his descent can be as unique as his ascent. He might never get the credit for "good times" other presidents did and thus his re-election might be a dicier position than other presidents running for re-election in similar environments.

[Garrett78]

25. The "a normal president" argument may cut both ways, though.

Maybe economic conditions simply don't apply in this case. Maybe that cult following wouldn't be swayed by a recession. Trump's approval rating has been incredibly steady; far steadier than any of his predecessors. And he's the most egregiously unfit president ever. So, we may have a situation where a recession wouldn't cost him more than a couple points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. 41%.

Even a few points bring him below 40%. As you know presidential re-elect numbers are tied to approval ratings. It will be hard for him to get re-elected with those numbers.

What if we had a repeat of the Great Recession ? No way can he stay above 40%, no way...

[Garrett78]

31. I'm certainly not arguing that 40, give or take, is good.

I'm just saying we may have a situation where both of the following statements are true:

A) Trump isn't nearly as high as other presidents would be with this economy.

B) Trump won't drop nearly as much as other presidents would if the economy turns sour.

We all talk about how his rating would be much higher if he wasn't who he is. Well, that may cut both ways. He may not be as impacted by a recession as other presidents would be.

Either way, we all recognize that even in the low 40s, he and his party are in trouble.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. I would be content for his approval rating to stay at 41% through 2020, if he's still pres.

[Garrett78]

33. And it might. Cult45 doesn't seem to care what he does or says, or about negative press.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. As long as it doesn't go up

I found this weird poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter is in trouble but his Mexican opponent is losing the Hispanic vote ?

[Hoyt]

36. I wish those who disapprove would be asked if they'd vote for him again.

That's the key.

Some of that 54% are people who are mad because he hasn't imprisoned and deported millions of immigrants; bombed Iran and N Korea; joined racist gun-toting white wingers marching in the streets, and worse.

The fact that only 54% disapprove after what he has done is despicable.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Even Rasmussen is coming around a little bit

538 just included a Rasmussen poll at 46% approve 54% disapprove.

But the 54% jumped out at me because I knew it was high by Rasmussen standards. So I looked at the prior three Rasmussen polls in Nate's compilation and sure enough, the disapprove number has climbed every time, from 49 to 51 to 52 and now 54

It's more evident here on the Rasmussen site itself, from 49% on August 14th and climbing slowly to today's 54% total disapprove:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history