**WHOA, NELLY ** (REDUX) Dems jump out to a eleven point generic ballot lead in second poll today

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on the generic ballot roughly two months out from November’s midterm elections, according to the American Barometer.

The survey, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company. found that 45 percent of respondents said they would cast their vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 34 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

Democrats have maintained their lead from the last American Barometer generic ballot poll, which was conducted Aug. 12-13.

In that poll, 43 percent of voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 32 percent said they would vote for Republicans.

The latest survey displayed greater enthusiasm among Democrats for their candidates compared to Republicans.

http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/404314-hilltv-poll-dems-hold-double-digit-lead-over-republicans-on

VOTE

[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. Cool. Been watching news and no one talking

About this ( that I have heard).

Ugh...just heard -45 coming to Texas. Hope it's close feel like getting ugly

[still_one]

2. While we all welcome this, I am not particularly sold on polls on generic ballots

[Awsi Dooger]

3. And 538 up 3% to 74.6% likelihood of taking House

It was below 72% earlier today. Seat projection up from 33 to 34

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Predictable with this slew of new polling.

[workinclasszero]

5. Big beautiful blue wave is coming!

[lindysalsagal]

6. Even if it's only 2pts/month, that puts him at a 15 point disadvantage for the election.

Great news. He may have finally reached the lowest information people: Those who live in log cabins w/o electricity.....or underground....

[Awsi Dooger]

7. It's not going to drop 2 points per month

This isn't a primary with free flowing opinions. Virtually everyone is locked in.

And regardless of this poll, it is not a true 11 point edge. The gap between 7 or 8 and 11 cannot be adequately described. Take the word massive and keep multiplying and you'll never get there. Just because one poll indicates 11 points doesn't mean it is real. If the vote were held today and a reputable spot put up 11 points as the over/under betting line, I would wager every available cent I have on the under. Literally every cent. And I would have countless fellow gamblers joining me. It would be a handout. I'd hold some back at 10, but none at 11. If I had to start over again at my age that would be fine. I would know I made an astonishingly advantageous wager.

Unfortunately the betting lines are not influenced by outlier polls like this.

[beachbum bob]

8. Need to hit 50% to have meaning