(Analysis of NC) It's the turnout, stupid
BY THOMAS MILLS | AUG 30, 2018
... I spent .. the day reviewing turnout in elections over the past decade. The numbers give .. insight into what happened as Democrats collapsed. They also give a roadmap for Democrats to recover.
The .. answer to Democratic problems is turnout. When Democrats vote, they win. They haven’t turned out in significant numbers in North Carolina since 2008. Democrats .. need .. a message and communications program, but emphasizing field to take advantage of their enthusiasm this year should be the priority.
... In 2006 and 2008, Democrats and Republicans voted in equal measures. Thirty-nine percent of both parties voted in 2006 and 72% of both .. in 2008. Those .. were Democratic wave elections, so unaffiliated voters broke for Democrats. Still, even if unaffiliated voters had broken evenly, Democrats would have had decent election years.
In 2010, though, the bottom fell out for Democrats while motivated Republicans dramatically increased their numbers. Only 45% of Democrats voted while 51% of Republicans did. Only 33% of unaffiliated voters showed up but they broke for the GOP. That turnout gave Republicans the power to redraw district lines following the census and locked in their power in Raleigh ...
https://www.politicsnc.com/its-the-turnout-stupid/
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