The numbers - take Fla out for Mitt and add in Wisc

[underpants]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Start with the 191

IF.... IF Romney/Ryan can take:
Wisc 10
Ohio 18
Mich 16
Virginia 13
No. Carolina 15

You get 263

They still have to win either Minn 10 OR Colorado 9 OR -- Iowa 6 AND Nevada 6 -- to get to 270
The President is separating in Pennsylvania but I needed a map so I used this one.

They have to win all 5 key battleground states above without Florida and the conventional wisdom (which happens to be the obvious) will be that Florida is off the map with the Ryan pick.

They better get to purging if they have any chance.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Let's see

Add 10 for Wisconsin,

Subtract 29 for Florida,



And the GOP thinks it's a win.

[HereSince1628]

2. I'm not so sure I'll see my Wisconsin go red just to support a 'son'

Ryan is as polarizing a figure here just as he is nationally.

[underpants]

7. I know but I wanted to show that with even that assumption 270 is going to be hard to get to

I agree with you Wisconsin is still a toss up.

[Scuba]

3. Romney/Ryan can win Wisconsin only if Diebold/ESS/Sequoia help them.

[Panasonic]

4. Don't count on Romney winning any states

that are purple or bellweather - it just all went to Obama with the Ryan pick.

The usual red states will vote for Romney, but it won't be enough.

Unless the baggers finally realize with Ryan, that the GOP doesn't give a flying fuck about them.

Then they'll just either stay home or vote anyone but Romney.

Right now it seems to be ABR mood for the Republicans....

[Honeycombe8]

5. Why would the Ryan pick cost FL? Because of the senior and hispanic vote?

The Ryan Medicare plan leaves things as if for current older voters. The Cubans in FL are mainly Republican.

[Panasonic]

6. Actually it's not what Ryan supports

He wants to remove Medicare completely as well as ACA (aka Obamacare).

Ryan is already an hypocrite of the nth degree. He joins other idiotic Republicans who are "me-first" 'tude ass-wipes.

[underpants]

8. "He wants to get rid of Medicare"

Everyone in Florida will go to sleep with that in their heads from the relentless campaigning that will start....right....now

[Honeycombe8]

11. But he's not going to end Medicare....for ME. Only future generations.

I think that matters. Most people care about themselves.

[grantcart]

10. Because he wants to change Medicare

Once you say that you are willing to decrease benefits for future recipients then current recipients start to get very very worried because they know that if the budget is in a pinch and you still want to cut taxes that current recipients will be next.

After all if they think it is a good move in the future, why wait.

No just hinting at changing medicare for the worse at some future point in time is a huge landmine.

Besides they will spend the rest of the campaign explaining taxes and how they are going to change Medicare.

Really an amateur move by a bonehead politician.

[Freddie]

12. And despite the "seniors are selfish"

thing that the Repugs are banking on, the majority of them realize how valuable Medicare is (in its present form!) and want to keep it that way for their children and grandchildren.

[grantcart]

9. No polling indicates that Ryan helps him win Wisconsin

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/how-romneys-pick-of-a-running-mate-could-sway-the-outcome/

Another of Mr. Romney’s potential choices, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, drew more mixed reactions. Although Mr. Ryan should win his home district, pollsters who tested his numbers throughout Wisconsin found more tenuous results, with 38 percent of voters giving him a positive rating and 33 percent a negative one.