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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsElection Update: Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House
If Labor Day is the traditional inflection point in the midterm campaign the point when the election becomes something thats happening right now then Democrats should feel pretty good about where they stand in their quest to win the U.S. House.
Although it can be a noisy indicator, the generic congressional ballot is showing Democrats in their best position since last winter, with a handful of high-quality polls (including one from our ABC News colleagues) giving them a double-digit advantage over Republicans. Meanwhile, President Trumps approval rating as of late Tuesday morning, an average of 40.1 percent of adults approved of his performance according to our calculation, while 54.1 percent disapproved of him is the worst that its been since February.
As a result, Republicans are in their worst position to date in our U.S. House forecast: The Classic version of our model gives them only a 1 in 5 chance of holding onto the House. Other versions of our model are slightly more optimistic for the GOP: The Deluxe version, which folds in expert ratings on a seat-by-seat basis, puts their chances at 1 in 4, while the Lite version, which uses district-level and generic ballot polls alone to make its forecasts, has them at a 3 in 10 chance. Whichever flavor of the forecast you prefer, the House is a long way from a foregone conclusion but also a long way from being a toss-up.
There are three questions that we ought to ask about this data. First, why have the changes in presidential approval and the generic ballot happened? Second, how likely are they to stick? And third, how much do they matter?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-in-their-best-position-yet-to-retake-the-house/
Peakaboo
(12 posts)It can get even better.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Good move, IMO. The double digit gaps made no sense in recent polls but 538's generic model reacted far too quickly and strongly to them.
Nate posted a couple of days ago that he had conceded in the past that the House generic model was overly sensitive to quick shifts. Commenters below the article properly asked, "Then why in the hell don't you change it?"
It made so much sense that 538 responded quickly. Not only is the House generic model altered to a more smooth sensible model, but it was adjusted backward and now the entire plot line is more stable and reasonable. Public opinion simply doesn't change as much as the prior 538 model pretended, and even if opinion does change it's probably short and subject to reversion with the longer term view probably more representative anyway.
Here is Nate's article describing the new version. The bottom line is our House generic edge has dropped and is now a real-world +8.4. I posted a few days ago that I would wager every cent I could get my hands on at GOP +11. The likelihood of House takeover has dropped to 77.0% from 80.3% after the wild flawed adjustments. High numbers are nice to look at but we don't need absurdity.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-a-new-less-volatile-version-of-our-generic-ballot-tracker/