Yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to win back the Senate

[fleur-de-lisa]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/yes-democrats-do-have-legitimate-path-win-back-senate-n907446?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_np

The takeaway from the trio of NBC/Marist polls we released this week is that, yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to retaking the Senate in November. Given the Senate map, it’s probably not the most likely outcome. But it’s a real possibility — more than most people might think.

snip

Here’s another way to look at the battle for Senate control: The Cook Political Report identifies eight total toss-up races — five held by Democrats (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia) and three held by Republicans (Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee). To win control, Democrats will need to win seven of these eight toss-up races.

Is it the most likely outcome? Probably not. But is it more in play than most think? Yes, especially since toss-up races traditionally do break one way.

And do note: Democrats winning the Senate could have a bigger impact on President Donald Trump and 2020 than if Democrats just win the House. Why? Because it would mean that the GOP lost states that Trump won in 2016, including places he won by SIGNIFICANT margins two years ago.

[marylandblue]

1. Also important for taking back the Senate

He gets no more extremist judges.

[bearsfootball516]

2. Best chance is to pick up a seat in Arizona, Nevada and Bredesen pulls it off in Tennessee.

That gets you to 52 and gives you a tiny bit of wiggle room. Manchin is the clear favorite in West Virginia, Donnelly has been consistently ahead in Indiana by 5-6 points. Hopefully, Gillum carries Nelson in Florida. Then you cross your fingers and hope that either McCaskill or Heitkamp can pull out one more win, because you only need one of them to hold the majority at 51.

It's honestly a fairly realistic scenario, but it all starts with Bredesen beating Blackburn. If that doesn't happen, Dems can't afford a loss anywhere else.

[dameatball]

3. Your Gillum comment is important. Nelson will need a robust Democratic turnout to beat Skeletor.

[qazplm135]

4. If I had to rank them in order of least to most worrisome (or most likely to least likely D)

1. West Virginia
2. Nevada
3. Indiana
4. Arizona/Missouri tied
6. N. Dakota
7. Tennessee
8. Florida


I just think Skeletor is going to win Florida. I really hope I'm wrong but that state is crazytown and he's the mayor.

[fleur-de-lisa]

7. Ha ha! Skeletor! I think he looks like a demented Mr. Clean. n/t

[Scurrilous]

5. K&R

[BannonsLiver]

6. You will probably be shouted down by people addicted to pessimism

But I have been saying that for a while now, the senate is in play. +1

[fleur-de-lisa]

8. I know. I have had to put some of the more pessimistic folks on 'ignore.'

I think some of them post some great stuff from time to time, but right now, I can't handle the Debbie Downer shit.

[sarcasmo]

9. Sadly the Democratic party has to be plus 3 for real control. No confidence in

Doug Jones and Joe Manchin.