Trump Voters Don't Believe Democrats Can Win House

[RandySF]

A source who has seen recent polling, conducted by the Republican National Committee, told me the data show that a majority of Trump voters don't believe the mountain of evidence that Democrats will win back the House in November.

By the numbers: 57% of strong Trump supporters believe it's unlikely Democrats win the House, according to the source, who wasn't authorized to share findings from the RNC poll with the media. (The survey of 800 registered voters — 480 via landline calls and 320 via cellphone calls — was conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2 and has a margin of error of 3.5%.)


https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-internal-republican-polling-529a22f5-e333-4241-bff3-db39ca47cda4.html

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Good. I hope this makes them complacent and less likely to vote.

[Blue_true]

3. I doubt it. They will vote, they always do.

I think that they are convinced that democrats don't have their act together enough to overwhelm them. We have to ignore the distractions and show them loud and clear that we do.

[dchill]

10. Trump voters have only voted once. Each. Presumably.

[ProudLib72]

2. That's what happens when your fat, orange leader continually shouts "FAKE NEWS"

I will be so happy to see this bite him in his big, fat ass! He's going to get rolled by the biggest blue wave ever!

[Grassy Knoll]

4. Trump Is Cold Product..Fuck Off...

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Well lets make sure we dissapoint them

Mobilize, organize, vote. Oh and donate. That is important too.

[luvallpeeps]

6. they don't believe in climate change either

but Florence tried to explain it to them.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. "Democrats might win a few seats"

I see and hear that rationalization everywhere from right wingers. They point to 2016 and assume the conventional wisdom and polls are wrong again this time.

But I finally found a way to counter it. Gad, has this been effective. Silence or stalled threads. Nate Silver recently posted a chart in which he projected the number of House seats swinging to Democrats based on the House popular vote. Republicans want to believe Even means Even, etc.

Not exactly. I pointed out to them that Democrats figure to net at least 7 seats even if the national House vote is Even, let alone the 8+ estimates of right now:

POPULAR VOTE MARGIN........PROJECTED SEAT GAIN.............CHANCE OF WINNING HOUSE

14-15 point lead........................+66...........................................>99%
13-14.......................................+61...........................................>99%
12-13.......................................+56...........................................>99%
11-12.......................................+51...........................................>99%
10-11.......................................+46...........................................>99%
9-10.........................................+41...........................................>99%
8-9..........................................+36............................................98%
7-8..........................................+32............................................92%
6-7..........................................+27............................................78%
5-6..........................................+24............................................56%
4-5..........................................+20............................................29%
3-4..........................................+16............................................11%
2-3.........................................+13.............................................. 3%
1-2.........................................+10.............................................<1%
0-1..........................................+7..............................................<1%

[RandySF]

8. What I've been hearing

Democrats will have failed if they do not pick up more than 40 seats.

[Lucky Luciano]

9. Good. Stay the fuck home until Christmas. nt

[hurple]

11. We need to help the Republicans

Stay home and not vote!

Instead of GOTV we need to create a Republican DGV (Don't Go Vote) campaign.

Who wants to design the leaflets?

[SCantiGOP]

12. They believe that they can't lose

And when they do, he will tell them it didn’t happen.
That the Dems cheated.
And they will believe him.

[MFM008]

13. Imaging how smugly

Self satisfied im going to be the night of November 6.
VOTE!!!

[mnmoderatedem]

14. trump voters also think trump embodies conservative family values

so much for trump voters.

[TeamPooka]

15. And when we do win they will claim we stole the election

[OnDoutside]

16. Forget Trumpers. The most important Reps are "normal" Republican voters and Independent Rep voters.

Trumpers will get out, but Independent Republican voters might be turned off this time.