FL-27: Shalala's Flaws Move Race From Lean Democratic to Toss Up

[RandySF]

Retiring anti-Trump GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's Miami open seat should be a slam dunk for Democrats. After all, it voted for Hillary Clinton 59 percent to 39 percent. But this heavily Cuban-American district's politics are more complicated than those numbers would suggest, and Democrats now admit former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala is struggling against Emmy-winning former Univision journalist Maria Elvira Salazar.

This is simply a case of a bad candidate match up for Democrats: Shalala, 77, would be the second-oldest House freshman in history and suffered a stroke in 2015 shortly after becoming head of the Clinton Global Initiative. She's also seeking to represent a 76 percent Latino district despite not speaking Spanish. Meanwhile, Salazar is a well-known bilingual Univision/Telemundo reporter who has been savvy in attracting free media.

Some Democrats are still miffed that Shalala's late entrance pushed several well-funded Democrats out of the race, including promising Cuban-American state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez. Ultimately, Shalala won the August primary with a tepid 32 percent despite universal name ID (as the former president of the University of Miami, where she weathered numerous athletics scandals) and raising $1.9 million with the help of Clinton world.

Two GOP-sponsored polls in the past several weeks have shown Salazar leading by single digits. Democrats believe the race is tied and that Trump's rampant unpopularity in the district will ultimately tilt the scales to Shalala. But Democrats are now on the verge of frittering away what was once considered their easiest pickup of the cycle. In a stunning turn, this race moves from Lean Democratic to the Toss Up column.


DONNA SHALALA





https://donnashalala.com

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Shalala was immediately the elephant in the room

This is my district. As soon as I heard her name I said...that's it. She'll be the nominee and she'll win.

Name recognition and presumed connections and money that go along.

It was kind of like Hillary in 2016 and I guess there are other similarities, because Shalala struggled in the primary far beyond expectation, and now is facing a TV personality. That may be the one threat that many of us missed, that Republicans could nominate a Hispanic who they have grown to trust over the airwaves for decades, somewhat like that Apprentice bullshit.

Shalala's campaign is not lazy. She contacts me every day by email and I have received frequent mailers and a couple of phone calls. So far I have not heard from Nelson or Gillum or anyone else. I've been registered here for nearly a decade and only two Democrats have contacted me by phone over that period, a local candidate in 2016 and now Shalala. It is frankly pathetic and disgraceful compared to what I experienced in Clark County, NV.

I have no idea how she fares in terms of contacting and reaching people who are not registered Democrats.

I'll have to ask my neighbor about this race. It is a Hispanic family with three generations living under one roof. The grandmother does not speak English and watches Spanish TV all day long. The family votes Democratic now but apparently it was not always the case. The son will be able to inform me how his family members and other local Hispanics view Shalala and this race.