Kavanaugh betting odds

[Kilgore]

Last edited Tue Sep 25, 2018, 09:24 PM - Edit history (1)

I dont beleive its a secret that I enjoy wagering from time to time. The Scotus vote is no exception.

The latest odds favor confirmation. Read about it here;

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-chances-odds-supreme-court-updated-scotus-trump-september-21-2018

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/entertainment-props/odds-brett-kavanaugh-will-be-confirmed-as-the-next-supreme-court-justice/

Anyone else putting down a wee bit of coin? Covering both sides?

Here is the place to do it. https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/business-politics/

[W_HAMILTON]

1. I don't know much about odds...

...but there's apparently a 29.4% chance that Rand Paul will vote NO on Kavanaugh -- yeah, I'd bet everything I own and take out mortgages for additional cash to bet on that NOT happening.

[magicarpet]

2. I bet the whole planet Senator Susan Collins approves to confirm Kcraven-naughty too.

[Ccarmona]

3. This Is a Railroad Job

I’d put the odds at $-650 he gets approved. McConnell, Assley, and the GOP Senators don’t give two shits about anything but getting this done. The SCOTUS new session starts Monday and they want the 5-4 majority from Day 1 so there’s no chance they don’t get the rulings they want.
Items up for review include the future of the ACA, voting rights including gerrymandering, double jeopardy (State v Federal charges) and other issues that have the right wing drooling; Not to mention the Unitary Presidency and DT’s future.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I have been wagering on Predictit

I took Yes on Kavanaugh being the next confirmed Supreme Court Justice. I have many prices and they average 44 cents to win 56 cents. So I have it as an underdog price, which I consider a major bargain.

I took advantage of the overreaction the other night when the price dipped below 40. It is now at 54 which I believe is still too low

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/12469/Will-Brett-Kavanaugh-be-the-next-confirmed-Supreme-Court-justice#data

I also need Ford to testify by Thursday. I played that for a lesser amount, also at 44

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/12508/Will-Christine-Blasey-Ford-publicly-testify-before-Senate-Judiciary-by-Sept-28#data

[Kilgore]

5. I like your strategy

My potential willings are committed to steaks and wine with the wife

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Bouncing all over the place today

Kavanaugh dropped below 50 and remains there but I don't think it got to 44, which is my average price.

I might have played too much on that confirmation as opposed to Ford simply testifying tomorrow, which obviously holds far fewer variables.

Ford to testify is up to 71 cents.

This is weird for me because Predictit actually shows you a cumulative Gain/Loss atop the screen based on whether the price has moved in favor of your position or against it. I was huge positive but now much less so.

I'm not used to that type of dollarly evaluation before kickoff. In Las Vegas it was more...okay I got -6.5 and now it's up to -7.5

The comments on Predictit are incredibly partisan. That's what surprised me. I thought it would be more like a betting atmosphere with people evaluating the market and trying to make money. There is some of that but mostly it is a political discussion with everybody slanting in their preferred direction. Lots of ultra right wing nutcases who indeed seem to think we're on the verge of a red wave. I don't mind laughing at them in reply.