***WOW*** A RATED QUINNIPIAC POLL-Gillium 54% DeTrumpis 45%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, crosses the key 50 percent threshold and leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 54 - 45 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a too-close-to-call outcome in a September 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, showing Mayor Gillum with 50 percent and DeSantis with 47 percent.

Women and independent voters are the main drivers of Gillum's lead:
Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men are divided, with 51 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Gillum.
Independent voters back Gillum 56 - 40 percent. Republicans back DeSantis 90 - 9 percent. Gillum leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.
Black and Hispanic voters also contribute to the Democrat's lead, as black voters back Gillum 98 - 2 percent and Hispanic voters support him 59 - 41 percent. White voters back DeSantis 53 - 45 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2573

[uponit7771]

1. Nice, QU poll of likely voters ... lets hope he has coat tales

[Scurrilous]

2. Good news!

[Wounded Bear]

3. I always love when these pre-election polls top 50%...

that seems to make it much more likely that victory will come in November.

When a pre-election poll only shows a plurality of support, the margins seem to get much closer.

Let's hope all these folks actually show up and vote.

[irresistable]

4. I'll bet that the women to men ratio will be higher than normal in this election- nationwide

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Normally that ratio is lower in midterms than presidential

Females are typically 52.5-53.0% in presidential years but it drops to 51-51.5% in midterms. Young single women typically don't show up in midterms, so not only is it fewer women but the block of females that drops the most is the block that is most Democratic.

If we can keep it at 53% or nearby this time that would make a huge difference in tight races

[irresistable]

8. there is nothing typical about this election cycle

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Adjustments normally don't fully pan out

There are reasons the long term trends become long term trends.

I'll be rooting for millennials and young women to show up in the percentages we hope for, but I doubt it will happen.

I'll be very surprised if women are 53% of the electorate.

BTW, some states have slightly different tendencies. Wisconsin, for example, is always in the 51% range for women whether it is midterm or presidential. That's one of the reasons Walker continues to be an annoying survivor and the presidential margin underperforms. We really need women to show up there.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Hard to believe Gwen Graham would be polling like this

And I voted for Graham in the primary.

IMO, misogyny is more real than racism from a voting perspective. I'll continue to assert that we have nominated too many females. The swing independent voters seem reluctant to support women. I posted that link months ago, a study that concluded female candidates lose 3% support among independents compared to an equally qualified male. This 56-40 edge with independents is the largest I've seen in any competitive race this cycle.

This is one of the few recent polls in which the percentages by category make sense.

[workinclasszero]

6. Great!

Go Gillium!!

[Garrett78]

10. Only 1% undecided with 6 weeks to go?

[mcar]

11. Coat tails, baby!

[Hortensis]

12. Thump, thump, thump. Deep breath.

Wonder what percentage of Florida's conservatives still identify Republican, and for that matter what's been happening with that number nationally in the past few weeks?

Wouldn't think there's much more room to drop. An expert on hard-core/mostly all the time "authoritarian followers" estimated their numbers at roughly 20%. Authoritarianism can be very fluid, of course. What the Republicans could use right now is a big terrorist attack. And, of course, plenty of so-called independent conservatives will still vote Republican.

[DeminPennswoods]

13. This last batch of Q polls have really been outliers

Notice the near complete absence of undecideds in all their recent poll releases.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Gillum is going to blow desantis out of the water by November

I predict at minimum he wins by 9 points and pulls Nelson with him.

[BeckyDem]

15. I am so happy about this. Gillum is going to win it.

[book_worm]

16. I assumed if Nelson was doing as well in the Q-Poll as he was yesterday that Gillium would

also be doing pretty well. I think this is almost an exact result.