Do Republicans Have the Votes to Confirm Kavanaugh?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Christine Blasey Ford will speak about her sexual assault allegation against Brett Kavanaugh before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday. Less than 24 hours later, the committee will vote on whether to endorse Kavanaugh, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has told senators to stick around Washington, D.C., over the weekend so they can work to ram through a confirmation vote early next week. But, with new developments in the story seemingly every day, do Republicans have the votes necessary to confirm President Trump’s latest pick to sit on the Supreme Court?

Republicans hold 51 Senate seats. Democrats hold 49. This means that, assuming every Democratic senator votes against Kavanaugh, two Republicans would need to vote “no” for the nomination to fail (Vice President Pence would break a potential 50-50 tie). Heading into Thursday’s testimony, the GOP appears to be a few senators short.

Link to tweet

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), who joined the Senate earlier this month following John McCain’s death, has also declined to commit to voting in favor of Kavanaugh until after Thursday’s hearings. So, too, has Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), “I want to see what happens in the hearing on Thursday,” Rubio said this week when asked by Politico whether he was still a “yes” vote. “I can only vote based on the information before me.”

Barring an unforeseen development, only four of the Republican senators yet to commit are seen as legitimate threats to Kavanaugh’s confirmation: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/will-brett-kavanaugh-be-confirmed-729348/

[dchill]

1. I'ma say no.

[Garrett78]

2. Do we know for sure that every Dem is a no?

[Amishman]

4. Unfortunately no

I worry about heitkamp. Polls are really not going her way lately and I wonder if she will break ranks in a desperate move to save her seat

[Garrett78]

5. If voting yes increases your chances of winning, those aren't people you want to represent.

A yes vote is inexcusable.

[jaysunb]

6. A yes vote won't be a seat saver.

Her seat was already a toss up before the Kavanaugh business.

Let's just hope she votes her conscience.

[Cosmocat]

9. Kavanaugh is so toxic at this point

it is at the point where even a red state dem SHOULD be able to do the math and see that:

The number of votes he/she would pickup from Rs or "indies" for voting to confirm him (very few) would be MUCH < than the number of votes he/she would lose from dems/sane people.

But ...

[Garrett78]

10. Not to mention doing what is right. No excuse for a yes vote. None, zip, zero.

[Cosmocat]

14. lol

the doing the right thing is pretty much the way to go in an situation.

But, politicians, gotta politician.

[C_U_L8R]

3. Doubtful.

They have to be worried whether more incriminating evidence will come out after they confirm. Either way, the GOP is looking pretty pathetic right now.

[Bettie]

7. I don't think any Republican

cares if they put a rapist on the SCOTUS, as long as he will continue the destruction they signed on for.

If he will shred civil rights for anyone who isn't a rich, white, male, they are 100% in favor of anything he has done or will do.

I remember a time when I thought Republicans were wrong, but not completely without morals. That time has passed.

[Garrett78]

8. I keep saying we aren't dealing with folks who have a different take on, say, the role of gov't.

We're dealing with horrible, horrible people. Corrupt, racist, sexist, fact-denying, greedy monsters.

[Bettie]

11. Have they always been this way and they just felt the need to hide it

before their Dear Orange Leader told them to let the masks drop and become the worst possible versions of themselves?

Is that what all those Trumpkins out there want? People devoid of anything resembling humanity making decisions that affect all of us?

I'm anxious all the time, afraid of the future my kids will be facing and frankly, my kids will do relatively well in TrumpWorld, being white and male. But it isn't about MY kids it is about everyone's kids, everyone's parents.

Every one of us deserves better than these poisonous traitorous assholes. Even the most awful of the MAGAts deserves better than what they want to do to all of us.

[Garrett78]

13. I think they've gotten worse and worse over time.

It started with the reaction to civil rights legislation and the Southern Strategy. Then along came the Moral Majority people. And the Powell Memo. Then Reagan dog whistling, such as kicking off his campaign talking about states' rights less than 10 miles from where 3 civil rights workers were murdered. Then right wing media exploded. Then a Black man was in the White House for 8 years, which made people positively apoplectic. A woman then tried to become POTUS, but the father of the Birther Movement made damn sure Republicans knew it was not just okay but necessary to be overtly bigoted.

[Cosmocat]

15. I have heart burn my entire adult life

The moral majority thing was really taking root when i got out of college, and one day I was at the gym in 1993, instead of blaring the band Rush, they had this bloviating idiot who made absolutely no sense rambling over the radio. I wasn't some great world travelor or anything, but I had no idea what he was talking about with the limosean liberals, and all that shit, I never met anyone as vile and disgusting as he said.

But, I looked around, there were to people who ate his shit up with a spoon. I still remember that to this day.

All that talk radio, bullshit, Hannity was coming out about then, and the pukes in congress, they had these focus group tested talking points. It was complete bullshit, but hard to argue with, quick and snappy. They stuck to those mostly, I knew they were full of shit, but they stuck to the script to make it about the beloved constitution.

Then W, and 9-11, and they got lazy, and just used terrorism as a stick to beat everyone over the head with.

Then, BHO, they got in the morning, saw the worse thing they could find on cable TV and screamed about him, then Hillary (see, Benghazi).

BHO was so smart, so charming and so buttoned up, they had to create a world completely separated from actual reality - the final step to enabling Trump to take the whip from the GOP and take over the party.

Its been a nonstop, and increasingly exponential slide into what is now nothing more than a liberal troll party obsessed with looting the country like the Sorpanoes in the "Bust Out" episode.

Hillary got blasted for calling them deplorables, BHO for saying they were bitter - they were dead accurate, and frankly should never have backed down.

[Garrett78]

16. They were being generous and diplomatic. Way more than half are deplorable.

[Cosmocat]

12. It isn't his style, but I can see that in this instance Turtle might play chicken with them

Any R who does not vote for any SC nominee at this point will spend the rest of their lives in misery from their insane zombie base.

Turtle NEVER puts something up that he does not know he has the votes, but he may play chicken on this one.

My gut is telling me that there are some of these Rs who really don't want to vote for the scumbag at this point

BUT, if put the test, they still are spineless shit heels ...

[lame54]

17. It may be up to Pence...

Of course he will vote yes

A stain he may not be able to get out