We were never going to own a double digit generic edge. Always apply logic to polling. That's why I never hesitate to condemn polls that don't make a fleck of sense.
Nate Silver put out a very poor senate model about a month ago, one that gave Democrats a 34.3% chance at retaking the senate. That is the only thing I would quarrel with this cycle. That 34.3% was not real world and made no sense in relation to other mathematical models or the betting markets. Today that 34.3% on 538 is all the way down to 23.5%.
Fox News had a flurry of polls yesterday that were awful for our senate hopes, in particular the one with Bredesen trailing by 5 points. Most polls have had Bredesen leading, although he has always been the betting underdog. Fox polls are generally reliable, despite the network itself, and cannot be dismissed as biased. Nate Silver gives them an A rating.
This Kavanaugh stuff will settle and within a couple of weeks we'll know where we are. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. That means virtually no chance at retaking the senate. Proper conventional wisdom entering this cycle was that Republicans would gain seats in the senate, given the terrain. I believe that is likely.
I check the House forecast on 538 multiple times per day. It is vital to keep that percentage at 75-80% and not drop toward 70% or below. I do believe we are in an American version of Shy Tory with right wingers less inclined to speak to pollsters. If there is a polling error it should be in that direction again. But as long as we maintain the 75-80% range even some polling error should narrowly allow the House to fall our way.
A party that relies on minorities, young voters and single women is not going to maximize potential in a midterm. That should be obvious from a big picture perspective from miles away. Those blocks simply do not vote in dependable numbers, regardless of anything that is happening politically.
I really wish we could switch more of these governorships to the presidential voting year and not the midterm. IMO, our party would benefit from that change more than anything else I can think of.
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