GOP struggles to put away vulnerable Dems in Senate battlegrounds

[DonViejo]

Control of the Senate is a tossup five weeks from Election Day.

By JAMES ARKIN 10/04/2018 05:06 AM EDT

The Senate majority remains up for grabs five weeks before Election Day, with Republicans struggling to put away nearly half a dozen Democratic incumbents they had expected to beat and Democratic challengers remaining surprisingly resilient in three Republican-held seats.

At least six Senate races — three currently held by Democrats and three held by Republicans — are too close to call, according to a dozen senators, strategists and pollsters in both parties interviewed by Politico for this story. That means even a slight shift in the national political environment between now and Election Day could be the difference between a slim Democratic majority and firm Republican control. And another handful of races on both sides are not yet out of reach.

Republicans still have the inside track to defend their 51-49 majority, with Democrats on defense in most races and the map tilting heavily toward states President Donald Trump carried in 2016, including the key states of Florida, Indiana and Missouri. But the GOP had expected to finish off more red-state Democratic senators like Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri by this point, while Democratic candidates seeking to flip Arizona and Tennessee have proved more resilient than expected in public and private polling.

Neither party is willing to concede that its most vulnerable incumbent — North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Democrats and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller for Republicans — is doomed, and both parties are still spending millions to keep those races in play and hoping for a poll-defying victory.

more
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/04/midterms-senate-gop-vulnerable-democrats-868016

[oberliner]

1. What do you think?

Will we take the Senate?

[Meadowoak]

2. If we GOTV.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. My predictions

We lose:
ND,
We pick up:
Ariz, NV
Everything else remains status quo.
That means a net pickup of one and a 50-50 Senate with GOP keeping control with Pence tiebreaker.

I really want to say that Tenn or Tex will flip. But, I think we barely lose them.
I’m also very worried about Fla, Mo, and Indiana ...but think we barely hold them.
We would lose WVA but the gop is running a TERRIBLE candidate vs Manchin.