General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict that
Kavanaugh will be turned down (or withdraw before the final vote).
I think Flake, Manchin, and Murkowski will vote no and that there is a high probability that Collins will also.
Anza404
(34 posts)I say he is in with 52 votes.
berksdem
(595 posts)Looking at the reality of the situation and he is appointed. Sad day for America if abs when it happens... GOPhers will not cross the party and vote no....
Separation
(1,975 posts)Some people were just gushing that he reached across the aisle and said, "I want an investigation." Sure, he reached across the aisle, he also in the same breath said that if he wasn't up for reelection he would have never done it. There is nothing to gain, he says.
k-dub
(97 posts)I think it ends 50/50 with Cleric Pence casting the deciding vote.
mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)would spare Pence being put in that position.
It would totally end Pence's career after Trump.
SCantiGOP
(13,871 posts)Pence is as adamant as he can be that he supports Kavanaugh and wants him on the court. Cant understand why you think him voting that way would do anything but enhance his standing with the Trump Party.
mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)He would be the one who would always carry the blame and that would not help him get any votes except from Trump stooges. He would have those angry crowds of women focusing on him. I think they might want to spare him that. I know how he would vote.
avebury
(10,952 posts)Collins is up for re-election in 2020. If she votes yes, they will be gunning for her and a victory for her is questionable at best.
Alaska has been very clear to Murkowski that they expect a No vote. If she votes no they will have her back and her re-election chances are pretty good. She lost her last primary race and had to run as a write in candidate. If she wants to remain a US Senator she can't piss off the people.
While Flake wants to vote yes, he is probably one of the few Senators to publicly admit that there are consequences to putting Kavanaugh on the bench and joint conservative beliefs might not be enough to pull Flake over the line to a yes vote. I hope Coons continues to talk to him so that the Rethugs can't beat a yes vot out of him. I really can't predict how Flake will come down on the vote. It might come down to his future plans. A No vote sets him up to take on Trump in 2020 when hopefully the Mueller probe will have come to a conclusion and we know what Trump is facing.
Manchin just may be the weakest link but he is not getting any cover from Heitkamp.
spooky3
(34,456 posts)on Obamacare. But she also knows that most independents and Democrats who may have supported her in the past will NOT vote for her if she votes "yes" on Kavanaugh. She has to win in the general, not just the primary.
It is concerning that she views the FBI report as "thorough" given what media reports have indicated since the middle of the day--that many witnesses were not contacted, etc. But while that sounds as though it is projecting a "yes" vote, it could be the opposite. There could be some facts negative for Kavanaugh, that have been confirmed in the report, despite the GOP spin. So she may feel she has enough information to support a "no."
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)I agree Murkowski would be a no. Collins will vote to confirm. Than there's Flake who knows with him.