I'm starting to think Kavanaugh getting confirmed is the best possible outcome

[Azathoth]

Consider the two possibilities here.

1) Kavanaugh goes down by a hairline vote. What have we won? We kept a right-wing possible-rapist off the court. What have we lost? Everything else. The Republican base will be in full froth mode for the midterms, absolutely panicked and furious, negating much of our enthusiasm advantage. Our House prospects suffer, the Senate stays Republican, and two months from now we lose the court anyway when Mitch McConnell rams someone even more right-wing down our throats. Republicans spend the next two years erasing what little remains of our democracy.

2) Kavanaugh gets confirmed by a hairline vote, possibly with Pence having to break the tie. Conservatives relax, our base goes into orbit with anger. We still lose the court and the Senate likely stays Republican, but our chances of retaking the House skyrocket. Republicans get no opportunity for a do-over. They are stuck with a conservative majority on the court that is forever tainted, not only because two of them are likely sex criminals, but also because one of them was rammed through in a cover-up so egregious Hollywood will be making movies about it for decades. The political will for impeachment and/or packing the court will begin in earnest.

If we can't win back the Senate, I think #2 is our better outcome. We've lost the court either way, and if we lose the House as well, the country is finished.

[k-dub]

1. Interesting, but...

Who would be more right wing than this guy? is there ANYTHING he is remotely moderate on?

[calimary]

11. Welcome to DU, k-dub.

All I've heard is that he was a late arrival on the list compiled by the very CONservative Federalist Society. So THEY did the curating for trump. He just glanced through the list and was probably steered toward the Frat Brat by Don McGhan who's intent on putting his own legacy into CON orbit.

But there's a good point made here. If the bad guys get their way, that will appease the deplorables - UNLIKE what would be if Kavanaugh goes down. WE'RE the ones who need the wind at our backs. WE'RE the ones who need the momentum and the fired-up troops and operatives and grassroots energy.

[Cartaphelius]

47. Male entitlement, Rape....

Sadly, I fear that all is lost already.

With the assistance of Putin and company, be they Russian and/or Republicans, the odds that a fair election
will occur, is slim, at best. Lest we forget, Putin has been planning this for years now while Trump refuses
to protect our voting system or anything else, like our energy infrastructure.

With the "win at any cost" (i.e. lie, cheat and steal) Republicans, now in the pay of Russians, will not quietly relinquish control
of a government that turned them out after their fiasco, the Great Depression, they have constantly targeted the hard-won and
deserved rights of the the marginalized citizens of this nation.

Witness the fact, that they, rich "Republicans," are just as eager to throw poor, under educated Republicans under the same bus as the
rest of us. Proof? O.k.

Answer me this;

Who caused the Opioid crisis? (see: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/19/big-pharma-money-lobbying-us-opioid-crisis)
Who then tried to cover-up their complicity by protect the pharmaceutical companies from responsibility through legislation?

[easttexaslefty]

2. Unfortunately,

I agree.

[madaboutharry]

3. He is unfit to serve as a SC justice.

Some things are beyond politics.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. THIS.

[Little Star]

12. Yep!

[Garrett78]

16. And the message sent to survivors of sexual assault would be deplorable.

[mercuryblues]

75. As abd as that message is

think about the message sent to the sexual assault perps. The message sent to the judges that hear these cases.

[Azathoth]

20. I guess that will be some comfort next year when Rosenstein and Mueller are fired as Chairman Nunes

applauds.

[FarPoint]

29. Absolutely....

This about America's future.....

[Stuart G]

41. Yes..!!!!!!

[Tarheel_Dem]

53. +1. The o.p.'s argument reminds me of Susan Sarandon's statement that electing Trump would...

"bring about the revolution quicker". The "revolution" so far has given us Trump, Gorsuch, and quite likely...Kavanaugh. As you say, "some things are beyond politics".

[GoCubsGo]

63. Yes. Thank you. n/t

[hlthe2b]

5. No... any benefit we get is short term. His appointment to SCOTUS causes lifetime damage

[Azathoth]

17. The court is already gone

We're probably not going to retake the Senate. And even if by some miracle we do, McConnell will still probably be able to ram someone through during the lame duck session. Either way, a Trump nominee is going to replace Kennedy.

If we're going to lose the court, I'd prefer to lose it to someone who is already tainted for life.

[hlthe2b]

24. Is your demoralizing post intentional? Quitters never win and we haven't lost yet.

[Azathoth]

31. There's a difference between optimism and delusion

I'm not saying anything different from what Nate Silver and every other professional is saying. I'm also not saying the Democrats should turn around and vote for this clown. But I AM saying that going down with the ship is not always the best option.

[hlthe2b]

35. The vote hasn't occurred yet, so take your naysaying (or intentional demoralizing negativity)

Some of us are still fighting and will win or lose, doing so.

[Amishman]

85. You can fight hard and still have realistic expectations

Flipping the Senate and saving the supreme Court is a wicked uphill battle and we will fight it anyway since upsets do happen. It's still important to stay grounded, it is easy for those who live in very progressive areas to forget how many conservatives there are. I have the opposite problem, living in a conservative area and still seeing Trump shit and awful red hats regularly is so depressing.

In Azathoth's defense, I wouldn't expect someone with a Lovecraft inspired screen name to be optimistic

[hlthe2b]

88. NO ONE and I mean NO ONE on DU has unrealistic expectitions. We just aren't willing to GIVE UP

nor do we appreciate those who come here to try to convince us to do so.

[bearsfootball516]

80. You're talking sense Azathoth, and it's much appreciated.

[orangecrush]

43. It's "concern".

[Hoyt]

6. Whoever got confirmed would be just as right wing. At least Kavanaugh will

lay low and MAYBE try to rehabilitate himself.

[Dave Starsky]

86. He's a raging, perverted, raping drunk.

No fucking way will he try to rehabilitate himself.

In fact, you can be 100% be assured he will get revenge on those who subected him to this.

[DUgosh]

7. This week I've decided

It’s best for my mental health to believe it’s the best outcome we could have had

[ProudDem314]

8. I completely agree with you

I would rather lose the battle and win the war, than win the battle and then lose the war. If Kavanaugh does get confirmed, the GOP will be voting in droves next month. I know so many Republicans who hated Trump but voted for him solely because of the Supreme Court vacancy. My biggest fear is if Kavanaugh does not get confirmed, we will have 2016 part II and blow a golden opportunity to at least take back the house. With Kavanuagh being confirmed, it will calm down the GOP base and not give them any major reason to vote this November. I have also heard from the across the political spectrum that Democrats are starting to take this too far. I can't help but agree. I applaud that they finally showed a backdown and fought, but at some point you have to draw the line somewhere.

Also, that is best possible outcome for mental health as well. I really can't take much more of this. Just vote already.

[calimary]

22. Welcome to DU, ProudDem314.

I think so, too. The last thing we need is the deplorable contingent all fired up again. Because taking back at least ONE House of Congress is urgent, mandatory, and critical! Otherwise there will be no other curbs on trump. There will be NO checks and balances whatsoever.

The Judicial branch of government will be rendered entirely corrupted and no longer trustworthy.
The Executive branch is already flushed down the golden trump toilet.
The Legislative branch is lost - for now. For NOW. November could change that. November needs to change that. November MUST change that.

[ProudDem314]

39. Thanks

Good to be here. I have done a lot of lurking over the months but have finally decided to chime in on things.

[grantcart]

42. I agree

Come back on the perjury

[Imperialism Inc.]

28. I'm curious, what specifically have they done that is "too far"?

Was it asking for an investigation? Or has something happened since then? If so what?

[ProudDem314]

45. I personally do not believe they have

but speaking to a lot of people I know from fellow Democrats, Republicans and Independents feel that way. Granted, it is not a large sample size (maybe 20 people or so), but polling this week also reflects that. From the IBD/TIPP poll released today, as well as the Qunnipiac and Marist polls as well. The biggest concern was how big the gap has been closed with independents on support for a Democratic congress (dropped from 19 to 4 points). Overall, the Democrats advantage on the generic ballot dropped from 11 to 2 points according to the IBD poll. The Quinnipiac and Marists polls showed wider margins (7 and 6 points respectively) but they have been cut in half since last month.

[liberal N proud]

9. Except for the rulings he will move the court to the extreme right

Except the fact that he is openly partisan

PS. Except that he is a radical loose canon

[quadtetra]

10. Better to have a nakedly partisan justice

than one that hides it like Gorsuch. There is no advantage to a justice that is just as partisan as Kavanaugh but hides it and thus providing false legitimacy to decisions.

[calimary]

26. Welcome to DU, quadtetra.

Yeah, there is that. We'll have NO doubt where he stands. He's no stealth monster. He's right out there. With bells, lights, and sirens blowing.

[bahrbearian]

13. Then next year impeach him and Thomas

[Quemado]

23. My thoughts exactly

Win back the House, and impeach not only the both of them, but also Trump.

[Tarheel_Dem]

55. You do know that impeachment and removal from office are two different things, right? n/t

[Quemado]

74. Yes

The House impeaches.

The Senate votes to remove. Removal requires 2/3 vote.

In the case of Kavanaugh, Thomas, and Trump, getting 2/3 of the votes in the Senate is a really high bar.

[BigmanPigman]

14. Disagree.

He believes the president is above the law. Also, he will destroy the remaining part of the ACA and preexisting conditions. That will effect us all in real time!

Heitkamp's brother in ND said that the people there care about farmers and the trade wars/ sanctions and the ACA and preexisting conditions. He also said they will forget Kavanaugh in a week. He is a radio host and travels all over the state with "real" voters.

[techne7319]

15. And in the case of #2

With Kavanaugh’s confirmation the probable outcome, it will still be a battle in November. The Republicans won’t “relax.” Reports are that they’re angrier than ever and more likely to get out and vote. Dems may get some control and have the power to repair some damage after midterms, but until new congresspeople are seated, the Repubs still have the upper hand.

[calimary]

27. Welcome to DU, techne7319.

Just makes it that much more URGENT that we all get up off our asses and VOTE.

VOTE, DAMMIT!

[techne7319]

36. Thank you, and yes indeed!

1.The goal of preventing Kav’s appointment.
2. The Trump/Stormy Daniels scandal
3. Manafort
4. Cohen
5. The Mueller investigation
6. Trump’s tax evasion/ fraud scheme
7. Whatever “bombshell” report comes out next

All these previous issues seem to make up 90% of DU conversations. They all posses relevant and significant weight in demonstrating the serious illegitimatacies of the current administration. Despite all these scandals, our best recourse is to change the course of this nation by getting out to vote in November. That’s where and when our voice can be heard. That’s when we can begin to right this wayward and sinking ship that is currently our government. Chatting and hypothesizing about all the scandals is great but voting is what matters.

[HopeAgain]

18. Meanwhile...

Kavanaugh is the vote to overturn Roe, finish gutting the labor laws, legalize anything that you can put a bullet in, repeal LBGT rights and helps declare the President to be above the law.

[Squinch]

19. Why do we always give their "full froth" more credit than our

own "full froth."

There's some pretty mobilized rage in our more numerous side right now.

Also, of Bart gets on the court the unindicted co-conspirator gets a free pass for anything he does or did.

[Azathoth]

46. Two reasons

1) Republican voters are more reliable midterm voters.

2) Dems are facing a stiff gerrymandering obstacle.

We are facing structural disadvantages here. The last thing we need is the entire GOP base on fire like they were in 2010.

[Quemado]

21. IMO the best thing is to avoid firing up Trump's voters

I think if Kavanaugh fails to get confirmed, that will fire up Trump's voters more than if Kavanaugh gets confirmed.

Getting the House back in 2018 is the priority. That's where the impeachment process starts.

Getting the Senate back is also a priority, and so is the White House. But the House is the most urgent of the priorities, and that will be more difficult with a fired up Trump base that shows up to vote next month.

[EleanorR]

25. I've seen this floated multiple times now

Not buying it.

[FreepFryer]

30. There are political upsides to such an ill-considered strategy and nominee... but better...

...would be to hold the line and keep the seat vacant - somehow - until we peel their claws from the levers of power.

[Azathoth]

48. We can't keep the seat vacant if we don't have the Senate

The simple fact is that Kavanaugh would already be on the court if Ford hadn't courageously come out of the blue.

[FreepFryer]

50. It's not all about Ford. We'll see where this goes. (n/t)

[Azathoth]

54. Yes, it was all about Ford

The most Democrats had was Booker's Spartacus show before she came forward. Everything we are talking about now, including Kavanaugh's other accusers and his temperament issues due to his testimony, are a result of Ford.

[FreepFryer]

58. Flatly incorrect. Remember Cory Booker's "Bring it!"

Neither she nor her letter are even mentioned once in this NYTimes piece detailing those events from 9/6. Your oversimplifications may be comfortable, but they are not accurate.

The disclosure on Thursday of dozens of previously secret emails involving Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh provoked pointed new questions on the third day of his Supreme Court confirmation hearings, as Democrats pressed him to explain fresh disclosures on abortion rights, affirmative action and previous testimony to the Senate.

Much of the tumult surrounded one quotation from an email that Judge Kavanaugh wrote as a lawyer in George W. Bush’s White House concerning the landmark abortion decision Roe v. Wade: “I am not sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/us/politics/kavanaugh-confirmation-hearings.html

[mobeau69]

32. In hindsight, we might've been better off not to give cover for the moderates with this

one week of "investigation" sham. Just let turtle ram the drunkard judge through and go on from there. Hell, we had a better chance of stopping him a week ago than we do now.

[Azathoth]

66. Agreed.

We've let the GOP put us in the position of having to condemn the investigation we called for in the first place.

[EffieBlack]

33. We often soothe ourselves with this kind of thinking - and I not only understand it

But often engage in it myself.

The problem with assuming something bad is really the best outcome in the long run is that it rarely is. It just gets worse.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

34. Oh good grief - I m still waiting for people to get fired up and revolt cos Reagan was elected in

1980. Yall been having that exact same fantasy since then!

No, it is NOT good if a far rw republican operative sits on the Supreme Court and serve to further consolidate power into single party dictatorship. No way, no how is it a good thing.

[Azathoth]

49. You think Trump's next choice will be less right-wing?

If the GOP outperform in the election, and God forbid they keep the House, they will ram someone to the right of Ann Coulter through just to spite Democrats.

[Solomon]

52. Thank you! I'm reading the responses in this thread and pulling my hair out.

To hell with this shit. How 'bout we keep this asshole of the court AND take the house and maybe the Senate by getting out to vote. I don't freaking care how riled up they get, if we come out and vote, we win.

I don't understand this don't win because we will piss them off way of thinking. Winning has a way of generating more wins. Haven't we watched the Orange asshole do this over and over? Yet we are scared of winning. I can't believe I'm seeing this.

[lindysalsagal]

37. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

I'm just saying.

[FreepFryer]

51. +1 (n/t)

[brettdale]

38. In terms of Justice

It will be horrible if he gets confirmed.

In terms of the midterms, it will be good for the dems if he gets confirmed, because
the base will be so so fired up to go out and vote.

[Charlotte Little]

40. This is giving in to the bullies

We do not have a clear chance of winning the senate. It's an uphill battle all the way.

And we also shouldn't allow ourselves to be bullied. We outnumber republicans. Every single one of them could vote and we could still grab the House by simply getting 90% of our folks to the polls.

Kavanaugh will be a very solid nail in the coffin of our democracy. And that's not hyperbole.

[MarcA]

44. Definitely an evil of two lessers.

Last edited Thu Oct 4, 2018, 09:03 PM - Edit history (1)

If they don't get Kavanaugh they will get some other oligarch worshiper.
They could pull a false what's-best-for-women ploy and nominate Barrett,
Eid, Grant, Larsen, Ryan or Sykes (especially theocratic Barrett - read her
views on women).

[H2O Man]

56. Er, no.

[Grasswire2]

57. that's what some of the smarter strategists on TV are saying...

...the party that loses this fight will ultimately profit more.

[Goodheart]

59. No, it's not, but I'll add this:

This utter disgrace of a nomination has shown a lot of people who didn't vote that their laziness and apathy have real consequences.

[MaryMagdaline]

60. No. He will do irreparable harm to the balance of powers

Fifty percent of America does not need to look up at the bench and see a person who hates us and has vowed to take revenge.

Let the Barrett woman take the bench. We’ll fight her on roe vs Wade but maybe she doesn’t like babies in cages. Maybe there will be a waitress suing the corporation she works for overtime or sexual harassment and Barrett sees her as a human being

Absolutely no good comes of Kavanaugh on the bench.

[Azathoth]

61. Barrett? Are you nuts?

Barrett's a fucking Scalia-level Catholic fundie.

Roe and Obergefell would be gone by the end of the year. You're not going to "fight her on abortion" once she's on the bench.

[MaryMagdaline]

62. How is that different from Kavanaugh?

[Azathoth]

64. Kav isn't as publicly nuts as she is

The most he's said was that Roe wasn't "settled law" because a large part of the country doesn't accept it and the Court can reverse/modify their opinions (which is frankly true). Barrett is an overt Catholic warrior.

But even if they are both identically bad on the issues, you're making my point for me. We're gonna get a nutcase on the bench one way or the other; the only questions are whether that nutcase is perceived as legitimate and whether we end up paying a price during the election.

[MaryMagdaline]

65. Yes. We will have a nut case. I don't want one who has assaulted women.

Sorry this whole exercise is puke-inducing, even trying to figure out who is the least disgusting of the candidates.

To quote RFK citing GBS “I dream of things that never were and say ‘why not’?”

Going to have to dream of winning the election and waiting for 2021 appointment by Democratic President.

[renate]

67. I agree... rationalizing, perhaps, but I agree

The Supreme Court is going to be conservative for a long time, whether it’s Kavanaugh or anyone else nominated by Trump. I’d prefer it if there were a permanent asterisk next to his name.

Also, once Republican voters get the Supreme Court they’ve been dreaming of, they may be less inclined to go to the polls, whereas we are fired the f* up.

Yeah, I’m just trying to look on the bright side of a shitty situation....

[Quixote1818]

68. I have been leaning this way too. If we lose the house things could get WAY worse! nt

[Awsi Dooger]

69. We need to keep independent voters

I tend to believe a Kavanaugh defeat is a better result in that regard. Otherwise Trump and the GOP are going to exude confidence toward the midterm, and that type of thing can be an attractant.

If Kavanaugh is defeated then Trump and Co. will be outraged and ugly and entitled. That attitude is not going to bring independents back to their side, IMO.

[Azathoth]

70. I think the independent vote is already baked in

Trump et al have been ugly and entitled since the day they took office. Independents made up their minds about him long ago.

Whether or not independents have made up their minds about Democrats is less clear. I've talk to a few people who consider themselves "independent minded," and they all have given me some variation on the notion that they're not sure about Kavanaugh, but they also think it's unfair and over the line to dredge up 40 year old incidents from high school. I have no idea whether that sentiment is widespread and strong enough to drive them back towards the GOP in any significant way, but it's a potential factor.

That said, our real problem is that we're facing structural disadvantages. Republican voters turn out more reliably in midterms, and the GOP have gerrymandered us into a corner. I think this election is going to come down to turnout, and turnout in a midterm is all about enthusiasm. If the GOP turn out in gerrymandered districts the way they did in 2010, we are in trouble.

[andym]

71. Some Democrats have taken the Supreme Court for granted

for a long time. While there is a group of Republicans that are obsessed with the Supreme Court, because they want to use it against expanding civil rights and to rescind Roe V Wade. Perhaps a partisan on the bench might awaken some awareness of how important the Supreme Court is for Democrats who often do not vote and encourage them to vote.

[Azathoth]

72. I tend to agree

Roe v. Wade created an outright cult in conservative legal circles. They have been grooming young Republican law students to be future conservative SCOTUS warriors for decades. The entire movement has been built around playing a very, very long game. There's really no equivalent apparatus on the left.

Maybe it's time to swap sides. Let the left feel outraged and hungry and facing a long game for a change. Maybe that will finally give them a magic issue that can reliably force the Sarandon types out of their fantasy worlds the way it used to force the assorted flavors of rightwing nutjobs to come together.

If there's going to be pain, maybe we can at least channel it to our advantage.

[JonLP24]

73. Courts can hurt us

Or be the last line of defense for some really bad policies.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

76. Ditto

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211230536

[janterry]

77. A loss is a loss is a loss

That's not good.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

78. Let's see, overturning Roe v Wade is a best possible outcome.

Hmmmm. Let's think about that.

And let's not even bother to think of all the repulsive right-wing agenda items that will be upheld by a court that includes Kavanaugh.

Yea, best possible outcome for Republicans. Not for sane, normal people.

[disillusioned73]

79. I see where your going..

but, man.. that is a tough one - this guy is THAT bad..

The "look at what they are doing" tactic of campaigning needs to be shelved at this point - how many failures does that strategy need to produce before there is a shift in message & tone. Pelosi already said impeachment wouldn't be in the cards - talk about shooting oneself in the foot..

[beachbum bob]

81. I can't disagee, with kavanaugh confirmed, democrats can use this to motivate even MORE

female voters to come out and vote....

[d_r]

82. Thats the thing

They have another one in line right behind him, and another and another. Might be better to have a prep school piece of shit than a anti abortion true believer on a holy crusade.

[d_r]

83. One thing is

Constitution doesn't say how many justices to put on court. Nothing to stop us adding 2 or 3 more.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

91. False dichotomy - a judge (conservative or whatever) who acts like a judge is preferable to a

republican operative

[d_r]

92. I get your point

[Azathoth]

93. If they both are going to vote the same way, I'd rather have the Republican activist

At least that calls into question the legitimacy of the rulings.

If the right is going to run roughshod over the country, I'd prefer they do it with the least credible people possible.

[OnDoutside]

84. I had created a thread with your exact contention, but only saw your thread now. Yes, I agree.

If we agree that by hook or more likely, by crook, either Kavanaugh or A.N.Other RWNJ will be on the SC come January, then the "positives" of it being Kavanaugh are

1) It will enrage the left ahead of the Midterms, while the right can bask in their divine victory.

2) No guarantee of winning the Senate back, but it has to help to some extent.

3) It exposes Collins especially to what she really is, and will result in serious targeting over the next 2 years.

4) Democrats can investigate what went on here, and destroy Kavanaugh's last vestige of credibility.

5) It will put massive pressure on John Roberts, who, as an institutionalist, must be horrified at the expectation of another sexual harassment justice, but also someone who has shown massive bias and hatred towards the Democrats/Liberals, in his "speech" last week. He must be concerned that the Roberts Court will go down in history as a tainted court.

[Tipperary]

87. This reminds me of those who thought tRump getting elected would be a good thing.

Cause a revolution and all that, donchya know.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

89. Yup electing Reagan, and then Bush 1&2 was supposed to be good too - still waiting - wake me when

the uprising starts.

[NewJeffCT]

90. Does a Kavanaugh defeat fire up Republicans?

Somehow, I don't think so

If Kavanaugh gets confirmed, that excites Republicans because they think it means Roe v Wade may get overturned, Trump gets protections, etc and they go to the polls.

If he's defeated, they'll have to wait until McConnell tries to jam somebody through during the lame duck session. maybe they get discouraged because they have the majority and still couldn't get him through.