Prediction: Kavanaugh won't be confirmed

[grantcart]

1) Trumplicans get more mileage as victims than victors. They will get more energy out of their sheep by screening a la Graham how terrible Democrats are and what an injustice it is than actually winning.

2) Republican leadership has to worry that the Kavanaugh story could continue to drip even or especially if he is confirmed.

They will try to put forth a less complicated but equally radical (think Gorsuch) candidate, probably a woman.

The inverse may also be true. A Kavanaugh confirmed may drive up Democratic voting by several percent and we might be able to get him removed when we have control of the Senate.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

1. Again, It Takes 67 To Remove A Justice

I tend to believe that the repub party is willing to go the distance, to get him on the Court, as is Drumpf. Even if that costs them more House seats, and even the Senate.

They'll have plenty of chances to get those back, but getting Kavanaugh on the court will pay them dividends for 3+ Decades.

[grantcart]

3. Not if he is convicted of perjury.

Getting any conservative on gives them the same benefit but without the political cost, think Gorsuch.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

8. He can be convicted of the Tate murders and he is still a Supreme Court justice until he's impeached

[grantcart]

11. It if he is in a federal facility

But the most likely outcome if he is found culpable is to trade office for a walk.

Before you tell me that never happens, that is exactly what happened to Spiro Agnew. He held the office of Vice President right up until they found out he was still taking bribes from Maryland developers. He was out of the office he was elected to with tens of millions of votes in 48 hours of his indictment.

[pnwmom]

13. There was a judge in a federal facility who insisted on keeping his job.

They had to impeach him and were able to convict.

How are you so sure that the GOP would help convict Kavanaugh?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. Sad but true... Rethugs will never vote with Democrats to impeach even a gang rapist.

[WillowTree]

9. Where did you get that idea?

[grantcart]

12. If he is convicted of criminal perjury and is sentenced to a federal directions facility

He won't be sitting in Chambers and voting on the docket.

If they get a criminal perjury conviction Federal prosecutors would push for resignation in lieu of time served.

Where did I get that idea from? The only other high official in recent years that faced imminent criminal prosecution, Spiro Agnes.

[pnwmom]

14. A convicted judge in Mississippi refused to resign and had to be impeached.

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/11/04/us/senate-convicts-us-judge-removing-him-from-bench.html

[grantcart]

16. Federal Prosecutors have a 90% record in getting defendants to

Accept plea agreements, just look at All of the guilty pleasure Mueller has gotten including hard cases like Cohen and Manafort.

More difficult than getting the plea is getting the conviction on criminal perjury on a material issue.

All of his lies about drinking and yearbook terms will not count. You also have to show clear intent that you know what how were saying was clearly a lie. His messanging about Ramirez before publication opens the door.

[pnwmom]

18. I agree. He lied not once but 3 times, claiming to be unaware of Ramirez's allegation

until the New Yorker story came out on the 23rd.

He lied twice on Sept. 25, in response to two separate questions in a telephone interview under oath. And he lied again about this on the 27th at the hearing.

If Kerry Berchem's texts are as the NBC reporter described them, he could be guilty of perjury.

[grantcart]

20. He lied viirtually every time he opened his mouth.

The only time he tells the truth is when he says, "I like beer".

They will make the movie first but then a comedic opera.

I can see the 2nd act closing with the lead tenor singing "I love beer"

With a booming chorus singing, "He loves beer, he really does, it's really the only thing he really cares for".

[uponit7771]

21. +1

[dchill]

2. I would agree - if Mitch McConnell wasn't such a...

Low-down dirty creep and a legacy-crazed moral black hole.

[RDANGELO]

4. If it's not this it will be something else.

They are easily manipulated, but it won't be enough. The Republican Party only makes up about 25% of the electorate. The Dems will take the house because they win the independents and Women.

[Quixote1818]

5. That would be the smart thing for them to do

If I were McConnell and looking out for Republican's I would for sure do this. They have odd egos though so who knows. I would say it's about a 40% chance they drop him because if they are good at chess, then it's the correct move.

This Raw Story article seems to back you up: https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/kavanaugh-nomination-brink-maybe-falling-apart-prompting-wsj-op-ed-washington-post-reporter/

[Quixote1818]

6. You know they are having this discussion right now. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I don't like to out think situations

Republicans when they have the numbers

[Algernon Moncrieff]

10. They have the votes

We'd have to flip 2 Republicans and not lose any Dems. I think best case is we flip 1 Republican (Murkowski). Collins has hinted all along she'll support, and I think Flake will say the FBI report found nothing.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Have a bad feeling Manchin will vote "aye" regardless of the outcome...

hope not... hope he's more reliable and does the right thing.

[drray23]

30. as i posted earlier manchin never ever voted to give a deciding vote for the GOP

His Schtick is to appear bypartisan to his right wing voters. So, when the GOP already has the votes he votes yes, if they dont he votes with the democrats. It is very unlikely he would be the deciding vote.

[DFW]

15. I think Flake only votes no if one other Republican does

I think the vote will be 51-49 or 52-48 one way or the other. Flake will not buck McTurtle alone, and have the next two and half months of his life be miserable. If he has company, I think he'll vote his true sentiments. If not, he remains a true flake and bows down to McTurtle once again.

[grantcart]

19. I can't see Murkowski voting yes

She was primaries and had to win a write in vote

That campaign was lead by native tribes who Kavanaugh ruled against.

Native American women are flying to Washington to personally lobby.

I agree about Lake he goes with a group.

On the other hand I don't see Collins not going with Murkowski.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. If Sasse (who is on the Judiciary committee) decides to be true to his speech

and goes with a "nay", then Flake can link up with him and have a cover with someone else on the committee. Only thing is that I don't know what if any relationship exists between Flake and Sasse.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. That would be awesome... but, don't expect it from that Sasse-hole.

[grantcart]

36. Well correct on Murkowski

[betsuni]

17. I agree.

[Lifelong MA liberal]

23. Let the GOP commit political suicide by confirming a rapist

And then WE will win by impeaching Kavanaugh, Thomas, Trump and Pence

[YessirAtsaFact]

32. Over 1,000 law professors don't think he's fit to serve

Retired Justice Stevens doesn’t think he’s fit to server.

Numerous classmates and acquaintances have already come forward stating that he is lying about his alcohol use and blackouts.

I truly don’t know whether it’s better for him to be defeated or seated and then be prosecuted for perjury.

A lot of light will be shed on how corrupt the repugnant goons are if he’s seated AND the Democrats get a majority in the house

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

33. Should be announced that's the action plan on Day 1 of the next Congress.

[Dopers_Greed]

24. I'm really afraid we are going to lose both chambers of Congress in the midterms due to this

The right is fired up now.

Nothing gets them angrier than challenging white male privilege.

Get ready for another "white-lash"

[grantcart]

25. The House is ours by a lot

If Be to beats Cruz we take the Senate

[RealityChik]

53. Not so fast...

The Dems are not putting much time and effort into another likelihood that Repubs will flip close elections that we win but still lose.

The state of Georgia is the poster child of stolen elections. Candidates have to be convinced to stand strong and not concede. They'll need us to donate funds for court fights but we need to convince them to fight, not be nice and give in.

Expect Repub dirty tricks. Check voter registration websites to make sure you are legally registered. Prepare to challenge if you are not.

Provisional ballots are like not voting. In states where elections are run by Repubs, provisional ballots are NEVER counted.

[qazplm135]

29. If they beat us at our most motivated

Then this really is a right wing country, do you actually believe that?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

34. I don't... but, then again, these deplorables came out in sufficient numbers to

elect the Nazi-in-Chief.

[Dopers_Greed]

35. It's always been tough to motivate non-RW'ers to vote

I'm having to pull teeth to get my friends to update their voter registration info, while I know that every RWer I know is already set up to pull the lever for Cruz.

[bucolic_frolic]

26. They can screw themselves now or screw themselves permanently

They can't decide which has more mileage, or which has more pitfalls. Pollsters can't tell them. Money can't tell them. It's every man for himself.

I actually do think he'll be confirmed, but the vote will be delayed until next week. But what does it say it will be a narrow very partisan majority, with impeachment already being a lasting part of the dialogue, as well as lingering issues such as perjury, $200k credit card debt, 100,000 unreleased documents. This nomination has been a wound on the body politic.

[Charlotte Little]

38. I wish everyone...

...would stop repeating this myth about him being impeached.

It isn't so easy to impeach a SCJOTUS or a POTUS. It's damn near impossible.

For some reason, folks keep telling themselves that it's a remedy, when in fact it is yet another constitutional crisis.

How much more can this country sustain before ripping at the seams?

[Charlotte Little]

37. While I'm praying you are right

I don't believe you are.

Kavanaugh will be confirmed.

And it will now be our fight (for many, it will be their remaining lifetime) to try to find a way to keep him & the far right-wing fanatics from completely destroying this country. 30 years is a long time.

But again, I'm still praying Collins and Manchin somehow vote no.

[grantcart]

39. Be careful what you pray for

It is possible that a Kavanaugh defeat drives up Republican turn out

A Kavanaugh appointment could depress turn out

A Kavanaugh defeat will mean they appoint and seat an alternative conservative, probably a woman.

A Kavanaugh appointment may give us the chance to remove him when we have the Senate

[Charlotte Little]

43. Nope

- I don't let the bully talking points affect my decision based on what is the right thing to do. The nasty Trump base can turn up or not turn up. Not of any concern to me. What I AM concerned about is getting out the vote for the DEMs and independents, both of whom are polling as highly disapproving of the current adiministration. So, this worry about republican turnout is moot, IMHO.

- We will more than likely have a conservative on the court no matter what, but Kavanaugh is the fix for Trump. I've been saying this over and over again (and I'm not alone in this assertion), but it seems to be falling on deaf ears for those who think he's just not any worse than any other conservative judge. Kavanaugh will protect Trump and there are many ways he can do it. And he's said he won't recuse himself from the Mueller investigation. So, if the end game is get control back in the hands of the dems, great. But if Trump remains, the institutions will continue to be under attack and, I believe, eventually be destroyed. And Trump could, in fact, walk away utterly untouched by justice. Kavanaugh is that horrific when you look at it from these terms. His debt was paid off for a reason by someone and he will be expected to provide payback.

- Impeaching a sitting SCJOTUS is damn near impossible. I find no solace in this line of thinking.

[grantcart]

46. Incorrect on all three points

1) Your use of the word moot is incorrect.

To begin with moot doesn't mean 'immaterial to the facts' which is a common usage and probably what you meant, it actually means "unsettled"

subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty, and typically not admitting of a final decision.

What you probably intended to mean was that it was moot in the sense that a legal motion can be rendered "moot" if it is found not to be material to the question and doesn't need a ruling.

In any case neither you nor I decide whether the issue is moot, only the voters will decide. You can choose to ignore it as a factor, which you obviously have.

What could be the factor?

These races are currently statistically tied:

Nelson FL +1
Bredsen TN -5
Donelly +2
Sinema +2
McCaskill +3
Heller -4
Tester +4

So the question is if a loss on Kavanaugh reinforces the current trend of increased right wing turn out is it worth it to block Kavanaugh and lose 7 Senate seats?

Giving the Republicans the Senate for 2 more years carries a high risk that another justice may be incapacitated during that time giving them a) either another democratic seat or b) replacing an elderly Republican with a younger one.

Ginzberg age 85
Breyer 80
Thomas 70 ( I wouldn't put it past Thomas to resign simply to give the ability to control the seat for another 40 years)

So the Hobsian choice we might be faced with is

1) A seat held by Kavanaugh or some other equally repugnant right wing apparatchik but we get control of the Senate

or

2) Loss of the Senate in which case the seat will still be filled by a right wing apparatchik but they could also then confirm one or two more justices in the next 2 years and control the Senate.

Don't get me wrong, if Kavanaugh gets voted down I will celebrate but I am also aware that the cost could be unbearable and me declaring it "moot" doesn't make it moot to the voters in TN, AZ, MT, NV or FL.

2) You and I agree that Kavanaugh is a 'fix' for Trump. What I find difficult to understand is why you don't also think that the next nominee (or two or three) won't also be a fix for Trump. Who ever Trump nominates is going to believe that the President is untouchable.

3) "Impeaching a sitting SCJOOTUS is damn near impossible" Really? How about removing an elected Vice President of the United States that received 88 million votes? It would be obviously more difficult to do the latter but it took only 10 days to remove Agnew after it was discovered that he had taken a relatively small payment of $ 10,000 that had nothing to do with his job as Vice President.

If a criminal conviction against Kavanaugh was brought on either the perjury (which seems strong on the Mendez allegation) or on any of the sexual assault charges and looked like it would result in a criminal conviction with time served the prosecutors would offer and Kavanaugh would take the same deal that Agnew took. How strong are either of those cases? Nobody knows but IF he faces a conviction then removal would not only not be impossible, not just likely but almost certain. The question is are the assault charges strong enough to prosecute (I assume it would come down to Mark Judge) or whether his texts to get his friends to back him up on Mendez charge fall within the narrow legal discussion of perjury.


If Kavanaugh is blocked I will take a day off of canvassing for Sinema and celebrate.

If we lose the Senate because of it I will regret it for the rest of my life.

[Charlotte Little]

50. I'm not writing a novel back to you but

- I meant moot as it is defined in the dictionary. Take that and spin it as you please.

- Everything else you wrote is conjecture since neither you nor I can tell the future.

- If you want to keep playing the "if this," "then that" game when it comes to the midterms, that's your deal. But unless we live in different countries, last I checked, Trump is the illegitimate POTUS, put in place by the help of the Russians. Nothing has been done to safeguard the next election - the midterms. The only thing any of us should be focused on is getting out the votes. Worrying about GOP enthusiasm vs. ours is a waste of time.

- Kavanaugh will protect Trump at every turn if given the opportunity and Trump is doing irreparable damage to our institutions. None of this will even matter if all three branches of government are compromised and complicit. I'm afraid we're just about at that point.

Lastly, Agnew resigned. If this latest debacle with Kavanaugh is any indication of how he'd respond to an indictment and/or impeachment, then we're looking at a man who will double down and refuse to step down - just like Trump will. We can't base the outcome on a past era. We're here now and shit isn't normal. Please, stop pretending that precedent matters anymore. It doesn't.

[Mr.Bill]

52. One thing I would like to add regarding turnout

is for the last decade or so, republicans have not won elections so much with a big republican turnout so much as suppressing our turnout. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it would be a major change in strategy for them and they actually would be treading on unfamiliar ground. At least in recent times.

[bucolic_frolic]

40. Collins and Manchin

only get us to 50, I think

[Charlotte Little]

44. Flake...

...could un-flake if Collins, Manchin, & Murkowski all indicate this afternoon that they are a no.

But I don't think that's happening. I still pray though, since I can't be in WA protesting.

[k-dub]

41. He will be confirmed

This is the 11th hour to "save the republic" from immigrants, uppity blacks, bra burners, science geeks and atheists. They are going all in....advancing a corporate theocracy (not sure if that's even a thing honestly) where the EPA is banned and bibles are forced reading. Roe gets overturned while rape is "freedom" for men. Further consolidation of the media markets continues, and the ever encroaching influence of dark money will further cloud our political system.

Our system of democracy is absolute shit. There will be four justices on the SCOTUS who are exceedingly right wing, all of them nominated by two presidents who did not even win the popular vote. What a sham.

[grantcart]

42. Except if Kavanaugh is votrd down they have time to vote another in

[William Seger]

45. If you're right, you can make some money on predictit.org

I bought shares on "49 votes or less" at $0.32 before Ford and Kavanaugh testified, and they're down to $0.22 right now, but I'm holding and thinking of buying some more.

[grantcart]

47. I would never wager money on what Collins would do, esp if it requires her doing the moral thing

Could Gardner be a wild card?

[William Seger]

48. Well, you were right about the Collins prediction, and shares down to $0.05 now

[murielm99]

49. Sorry, but I just got a little news bulletin from CNN.

Collins is a yes. She announced it live.

[samnsara]

51. remember the health care vote went this way up until the very end

[PDittie]

54. Did not age well

[Sherman A1]

55. Agreed

I had no doubt after the theatrics, he would be confirmed.