Gulf of Mexico folks - keep an eye on this

[malaise]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward across Hispaniola. Although strong winds aloft are located
just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is
expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico
while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[malaise]

1. Up to 70% now watch this folks

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018



1. A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[malaise]

2. 80% now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php




1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad area
of low pressure is centered near the coast of Honduras. This system
is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from
Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to
Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly toward the northwest and north. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America, and these
rains should then spread over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[greytdemocrat]

3. Yep

The season runs thru the
end of November.