The Return of the Southern Democrat

[DonViejo]

The South may not be Democratic territory, but a crop of competitive races means Republicans can’t take it for granted anymore.

By Susan Milligan Senior WriterOct. 5, 2018, at 6:00 a.m.

IN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, young, African-American Democrats have a credible shot of winning governorships. In Texas, a charismatic, skateboarding Democratic candidate for Senate is speaking to overflow crowds, last week appearing at the largest single-candidate rally since the 2016 presidential campaign. Virginia reinforces its blue bona fides with each passing election, while Tennessee could elect a Democratic U.S. senator for the first time in 30 years.

The South has been like a political Mason-Dixon Line for the Democrats, who watched the demise of the conservative "Dixiecrat" in the '80s and have stood by helplessly as the GOP uses it as its own firewall in presidential elections. But a new kind of Southern Democrat is emerging, one who can attract younger voters and shake up the electoral map, experts say.

"The South as a sort of cohesive political unit may be fading," says Western Carolina University professor Chris Cooper, author with H. Gibbs Knotts of the 2017 book "The Resilience of Southern Identity: Why the South Still Matters in the Minds of Its People." The region is becoming more of a "two-South idea," with states like Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas remaining solidly conservative, while the states long the Eastern Seaboard are providing openings for Democrats, he says.

Virginia, for example, has virtually established its identity as a blue state, largely because of young professionals in the area bordering Washington, D.C., and an influx of Latinos, says Seth McKee, a political science professor at Texas Tech University who has done extensive research on demographics and migration in the region. The Old Dominion – which voted in 2008 for a Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, for the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 – elected a Democratic governor last year and gave Democrats in the state House of Delegates their biggest pickup since 1899.

In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams could become the nation's first black female governor, running neck and neck with GOP nominee Brian Kemp in the polls in her race. Florida Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum could become his state's first African-American governor as he battles Republican former Rep. Ron DeSantis for the governorship.

more
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2018-10-05/the-return-of-the-southern-democrat

[JI7]

1. because of growing minority populations

[BumRushDaShow]

3. The minority populations have ALWAYS been there

There are non-black "minorities" that may be "growing" but the southern states were literally considered "the black belt", with from 20% - 37% black population, and this was basically because they were "the slave states".









I think part of the problem "reaching" these folks is literally regional, i.e., in many cases, no matter what race/ethnicity, people may identify more with their "region" first, and then other criteria after that.

[JI7]

5. yes. but the white majority was strongly against them

with changes in the states the newer minorities and liberal whites who move there can add to the existing minority population to help win elections.

and i would love to see decendents of the longtime oppressed minority communities start to win top leadership positions there.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Well yes

IMHO, there is a generational PTSD thing going on there due to the proliferation of lynchings and assassinations and the KKK running rampant, that has been entrenched for generations, and kept people in a state of fear. The primary focus of the Voting Rights Act was due to the restrictions continually imposed on southern blacks.

What is a bit of a shame is that while they mention Abrams and Gillum - I suppose because they have the best chance, you also have Mike Espy running for the Senate in MS -

New poll: Espy, Hyde-Smith in dead heat, McDaniel within striking distance in Senate race

Geoff Pender, Mississippi Clarion Ledger Published 2:57 p.m. CT Oct. 2, 2018 | Updated 3:51 p.m. CT Oct. 2, 2018

An NBC News poll released Tuesday shows Mississippi U.S. Senate candidates Mike Espy and Cindy Hyde-Smith neck and neck, with Chris McDaniel remaining in striking distance and a large number of undecided voters.

Both Democrat Espy and Republican McDaniel viewed the poll as welcome news, coming on the same day President Donald Trump planned to hold a rally in support of Republican Hyde-Smith in Southaven.

The poll showed:

Espy: 25 percent
Hyde-Smith: 24 percent
McDaniel: 19 percent
Toby Bartee (Democrat): 4 percent
Undecided: 27 percent

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/02/poll-mike-espy-chris-mcdaniel-cindy-hyde-smith-donald-trump-mississippi-visit/1500466002/

Mississippi is a state with a 38% black population. I remember back when Obama was first running in 2008 and one of the debates was held there and they had reporters asking residents about voting... and there were literally clueless people and those who were like "why bother"?

[beachbum bob]

2. The influx of educated northerners AND professionals relocating to south

and why republicans are pretty much anti-education....add that to a growing number of minorities now STANDING and voting.

big problems in the southland and they aint going away

[BumRushDaShow]

4. THAT is the other side of the coin

There a number of northerners who have moved south for -

1.) Cheap housing/cost of living
2.) Banking industry/University system
3.) Climate & usual retirees/snowbirds

I have a number of my relatives (we are black), born and raised and multi-generational northerners, who moved down to Atlanta for similar reasons - notably cost of living and for "cultural" reasons, along with a step-grandmother who had moved to Florida. I have co-workers who have moved to/retired in North Carolina (Smokey Mountain area).

So there is a different dynamic going on there that finally reached a "boiling point" where the hardcore stereotypical racists have been rattled by the influx and cultural shift, and have started to assert their disgust.

[dalton99a]

7. +1. Example - one Texas county: