General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDoes anyone here know what the pro choice movement will do if Roe is struck down?
Surely the ACLU, Planned Parenthood and NARAL have thought this scenario through and come up with their own strategies to keep abortion safe and legal.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)That means the battle moves to state legislatures, which is where the pro-choice movement will have to concentrate its efforts.
still_one
(92,224 posts)rights issue
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)still_one
(92,224 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Reversing the landmark case would not automatically make abortion illegal across the country. Instead, it would return the decision about abortion legality to the states, where a patchwork of laws already in place render abortion more or less available, largely depending on individual states' political leanings.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/07/10/627666535/if-high-court-reverses-roe-v-wade-22-states-likely-to-ban-abortion
still_one
(92,224 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That's what all the scholarship suggests. Could the Supreme Court give a fetus personhood ? Theoretically they could but they aren't going to find anything in common law or the Constitution to support such a position, and that's precisely why constitutional scholars on both the left and right believe it would go back to the states.
still_one
(92,224 posts)looking for precedent, common law, or the Constitution for support
irresistable
(989 posts)it would be challenged, and the Supreme Court could rule that it is constitutional.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)You might have something on the 20-week or fetal heartbeat issues, but even then, it might be a squeaker to get past the Supreme Court.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The only way abortion could be outlawed in all fifty states is if a constitutional amendment giving a fetus personhood is passed.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)that kind of amendment. Then pregnant women will be able to declare their fetus on their tax returns and there is NO WAY the cons will allow that. Abortion was legal in NY (and I assume other states) before Roe and will remain legal when it's overturned.
d_r
(6,907 posts)in reality the abortion rate would be no lower in states where abortion was made illegal than it would be in states where it remained legal. The only result would be that it would put such an undue burden on women in poverty. There would be dangerous back ally abortions again - it boggles my ind the very people who constantly say "if guns were made illegal, then only criminals would have guns" don't see this - and it would cause deaths among poor women.
If these people really wanted to reduce abortion, they would enact policies that reduced women needing them, but we all know that already.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)transport to a blue state (and likely a hotel room), they will go back to the alleys. It breaks my heart.
marybourg
(12,633 posts)and the enabling statute was not as liberal as Roe v. Wade, so would need to be amended to meet current standards.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)In a heartbeat.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)to privacy" in the constitution.
Perhaps Ruth Bader Ginsburg was right: we should have based our argument on "equal protection under the law."
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)What about Loving v. Virginia?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That decision is safe.
47of74
(18,470 posts)They'd probably come up with an excuse to invalidate that if their sugar daddies told them to.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)and tended to tie it in with Roe and Griswold.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)They might try to thread the needle in a way that allows states to restrict but not abolish abortion because they don't want riots in the streets or a perception that they are illegitimate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Most folks obey the law because they see it as legitimate and fear punishment for breaking it. We will be in a bad place if the law only derives power from the latter. The Supreme Court doesn't have an army. It relies on moral authority.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)in most cases unenforceable authority, they can't afford to do something a substantial majority of the people not only disagrees with (that's happened before) but believes to be so utterly wrong and illegitimate that either there are riots in the streets or the decision is just ignored.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Subsequent decisions stated it should be carried out with all deliberate speed. I went to public school in Volusia County, Florida in the 1970s. The public school I went to was still being desegregated under a federal court edict.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)and they got away with it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)still_one
(92,224 posts)TruckFump
(5,812 posts)lapfog_1
(29,205 posts)an abortion.
And those laws will also be upheld by the SCOTUS (now).
expect women to be arrested at border checks and airport.
I'm not kidding.
Cerulean Southpaw
(32 posts)No constitutional amendment, they just pass a law with something similar to the "transporting women across state lines for immoral purposes" thing in the Mann Act.
They could even try to say they can regulate it under interstate commerce. Interstate commerce gets used like a rubber stamp for almost anything.
I wouldn't put it past them to try anything like that.
lapfog_1
(29,205 posts)Kav is on record as believing that these cause the loss of possible pregnancy.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)based on the Privileges and Immunities clause, which states, "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States." Freedom of movement has been recognized as a fundamental Constitutional right since the early 1800s. Even the extreme originalists couldn't, and won't, get around this.
I'm not kidding.
Freddie
(9,267 posts)I dont see how they could ban travel between states.
I see travel agents and motels, Greyhound, Amtrak, airlines profiting from this. Even advertising, whats to stop them? There *will* be civil disobedience and theres nothing they can do about it.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)And voters need to pay attention. Allowing a republican to be elected in a densely populated area is a loss, because that republican will vote with rightwing rural republicans to restrict women's rights. Any young woman doing a protest vote because the democrat is not her perfect candidate creates roadblocks for herself and other women.
greymattermom
(5,754 posts)you just take the boat. It goes out in the ocean a few miles, and it's perfectly legal.
nolabear
(41,987 posts)In Biloxi you had to go beyond the 12 Mile limit, then they decided you had to be out in the water, then the boat could be tied to the dock, then what was actually a boat could include multistory buildings somehow adhered to land...I dont know where the law stands now but theyre still referred to by the old timers as boats.
maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)it will mean flying women to the coasts.
It's going to be a nightmare, one of many sure to come in the next quarter century.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)and women who could afford it left the country. Others got illegal abortions, often with bad results.
maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)Because the Anti-Abortion activist networks will feel free reign to persecute women in the states that still allow it. There will be street battles.
And laws will get more punitive and draconian in the states that outlaw it.
Bettie
(16,110 posts)he should expect me to be driving women to places where they can get the health care they need, since it will likely be illegal in Iowa fairly quickly once Roe is gone.
47of74
(18,470 posts)This state is turning in to a shithole. I hate it.
Bettie
(16,110 posts)looking elsewhere when they are done with school.
SharonClark
(10,014 posts)Regardless of the status of abortion rights in the state?
Bettie
(16,110 posts)for a variety of reasons, all related to right wingers having control.
As the previous poster said, it's kind of a shithole.
Jobs? Not many here.
nolabear
(41,987 posts)Transportation, safe houses, protection, medical follow up care...this is some grim shit but we can do it. Older women can be extremely powerful in that way.
MousePlayingDaffodil
(748 posts)... each state would still have the option of allowing for abortion within that state. Some states would doubtlessly move to criminalize abortion, but many others no doubt would not.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)Invest in Greyhound.
NutmegYankee
(16,200 posts)This court isnt going to leave it to the states.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)because there are no federal statutes relating to abortion. They do have the power to tell states they can regulate or outlaw it without violating the Constitution.
NutmegYankee
(16,200 posts)And regulate it under the 14th.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The 14th Amendment refers to persons born in the United States:
NutmegYankee
(16,200 posts)I dont think people get the depravity we are up against. They intend to deprive women of their equal status.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)59% of Mississippians voted against giving a fetus personhood. Imagine what the numbers would be in the rest of the country. Anything is possible but not only would the Court being going against the popular will but they would have to invent a Constitutional law to do so.
They likely throw it back to the states.
*https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mississippi-anti-abortion-personhood-amendment-fails-at-ballot-box/2011/11/09/gIQAzQl95M_story.html?utm_term=.8ec8fd743427
Freddie
(9,267 posts)Popular vote doesnt mean a thing. The new SCOTUS is just the final nail in permanent minority rule.
still_one
(92,224 posts)challenging states rights to abortion I think are being naïve
Greybnk48
(10,168 posts)in the not too distant past that they would move to provide safe abortions on their reservations?
I think that's one thing that may happen.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Abortion was legal in NY before Roe and will be legal if it's overturned.
NutmegYankee
(16,200 posts)And that new legal argument will give them grounds to either ban it nationally or allow such a law from Congress. That is their goal. This back to states stuff is just wishful thinking. These savage and depraved opponents of a the right to privacy won't stop on their own volition.
lark
(23,108 posts)I lived in a state where abortion was illegal and even birth control pills were illegal unless you were married. As a Senior in high school, a bunch of us started helping any friend who got pregnant and didn't want to keep it. We'd all give the person $$, even if it was only a few $$. We'd make arrangements to get them to appts. and to the airport and back, if they didn't have transportation. We talked to women all around town and found a few dr's who would refer a pregnant unmarried girl to NY for an abortion and prescribe birth control pills for afterwards and shared this information as needed. Prior to RvW I think there were 8 of us that I now had an abortion utilizing our own underground railroad. I'm sure there were lots of other cases where I wasn't personally involved. So, if that horrible thing happens, while we are working on getting the laws passed in the states, I hope we will again support women that need help.
nolabear
(41,987 posts)If were looking for power, we can find some in helping our younger sisters be safe and protected.
My daughter is the GM for a co. that hires lots of young women, I'd talk to her about this and am sure she'd be totally onboard as well.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)Scenario A: Court says that states, not feds, regulate allowable medical procedures. Most likely outcome is abortion is illegal in about 30 states outright; legal in about 10 under specific circumstances; legal as-is in about 10. Groups on both sides will continue to fight at the state level.
Scenario B: Court says life begins at conception, and that Roe was decided in the absence of knowledge and technology we have now. All abortion and some forms of birth control become immediately illegal. Only a CC or rebalanced court could remedy that situation.
avebury
(10,952 posts)pro-choice people to then fund programs to allow for women to make it to port cities where they can board freedom ships to sail out into international waters where they can tell the Rethugs to eat shit while they have their procedure.
bdamomma
(63,877 posts)Abortions are legal in Bermuda.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Theoretically the Court can do what it wants but usually the decisions are not totally unmoored from the Constitution.
avebury
(10,952 posts)women to safe haven states to have their abortions. Perhaps a pro-choice millionaire/billionaire could buy a few large boats that could be sailed out of anti-choice states so that women could have the procedures done in international waters (for those who have passports). There could be a program where poor young women could apply for funding to obtain their passports as soon as they reach the age of 18 (always be prepared).
roamer65
(36,745 posts)It will set up a polarity between the states not seen since the days of slavery.
It will be legal in Canada as well.
The real fun is if the states that pass bans try to prosecute women for getting it done in legal states.
That would harken back to the Fugitive Slave Act days of the 1850s.
irisblue
(32,982 posts)Last edited Fri Oct 5, 2018, 01:45 PM - Edit history (1)
Transports to NY state, California, Massachusetts. Passing the hat among women and a few good men to get the money to travel & have the.proceedure.
Self induced abortions & septic shock patients in ERs again. Womens deaths, like the "good old days" the radical RW so fondly remembers.
I remember those not so good days for women.
ck4829
(35,077 posts)Roe v Wade said there was a right to privacy and due process... yes, they can ban abortion, but when I also see today's conservatives talk about "white genocide", Trump admin officials crowing about Trump having "good genes", seeing the 'other' as animals, wanting to get rid of "anchor babies" and Muslims, and the whole fact that the same people who were screaming about Obama becoming a dictator being just fine with Trump suspending elections as well as the sordid history of eugenics in this country already; that is another reason to be worried about Roe v Wade being struck down.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Which we have already started to see since Trump was elected. We will get back at the ballot box what we lost in court.
yardwork
(61,650 posts)The loss of Roe v Wade as a wedge issue could be a huge net loss for the Republicans. Many evangelicals who currently support Republicans would lose interest in politics.
I don't think there is another issue that would have the same emotional appeal.
It might be too late by then, though. We might not have the vote anymore.
Johnny2X2X
(19,067 posts)Here's what people don't get about, "It will go to the states." The states already have laws on the books that would be in effect, so many states would go back to illegal abortion immediately, some would surprise you. Michigan, for instance, would be illegal. It would be up to state legislatures to then pass laws to make it legal, and the Republicans control a lot of these state legislatures.
I think you will see horrific events if Roe v Wade is overturned. The protests will be violent and extreme, and the country will be ripped apart even further.
quadtetra
(46 posts)People say that it just goes to the States. But what's to stop Congress from enacting a Federal law banning it in all States and overriding State laws?
Azathoth
(4,610 posts)They could decide that regulating abortion falls under the Tenth Amendment and is a power reserved to the States. If I had to guess, that would be the likely approach.
MichMary
(1,714 posts)50 state-by-state battles. And that may turn out to be a good thing for our side. Nothing will bring out the Dem vote like having choice on the ballot in all those states. I predict that lots of red legislatures will flip to blue, and that will mean good things for redistricting.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)But the nation would be ill served by a patchwork of laws on a right as basic as controlling one's body.
Dale Neiburg
(698 posts)Abortion had been illegal, and a proposal to enact Roe-like provisions into state law was turned down by the legislature. Next election, that was a major issue and when the dust cleared we had a significantly different legislature and the legalized abortion.
eleny
(46,166 posts)Hekate
(90,714 posts)Well, iirc, a couple of reasons. With the advent of reliable contraceptives and medications that can cause early abortion or clean up a natural miscarriage, there has been less need for the procedure.
And, just as you might expect, the anti-choice forces have been hard at work tainting it as exclusively about abortions. So medical students in OB-GYN have shied away, not wanting to get caught up in the controversy.
It is a procedure that will always have a place, though. An incomplete miscarriage can cause continuous bleeding for months (happened to my mother, and she was too poor to return to the doctor). Can also cause hemorrhage and lead to sepsis and death. A D&C scrapes out what needs to go.
The procedure can also be deadly in the wrong or inexperienced hands. That's a very sharp curette there, operating in a confined space by touch.
Damn shame about the OB-GYN students. I very much hope this particular trend can be reversed.
eleny
(46,166 posts)I'm just remembering how it was "back in the day" before legal abortion. No D&C option? Back alley option.
elleng
(130,974 posts)if we're smart.
It really depends on 'HOW' Roe is 'overturned.'
Hekate
(90,714 posts)There's more. Many states never took their old laws off the books, and they will revert. Still other states (like Texas) have been chipping away at the full range of women's health care for years, and that includes contraceptives. Some states have only one abortion clinic left in the entire state. Some locations have had to build bunker-like structures and hire guards.
As a Planned Parenthood supporter I try to keep more or less current. Yes, I am sure PP and the rest have plans -- but there is probably little they can do if a particular state outlaws abortion entirely and calls it murder under the law.
The tragedy is that women will still have abortions. They always have. The restrictions strike hardest on the poor, the rural, women with no transportation, women who have to explain why they went to the Big City and were away overnight, teenagers.
The wealthy will have no problem. They never have.
DFW
(54,410 posts)Or else a lot more flights to Canada.
And if any state enacts a law that lets them try any woman who gets an abortion out of state for murder, those states will lose some population, and rightly so.
Hekate
(90,714 posts)CrispyQ
(36,478 posts)as it violates a women's 13th amendment rights. Why the choice movement doesn't use this argument is beyond me.
2010
Forced Labor, Revisited: The Thirteenth
Amendment and Abortion
Andrew Koppelman
Northwestern University School of Law, akoppelman@law.northwestern.edu
I. The basic argument
The Thirteenth Amendment reads as follows:
1. Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
2. Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
My claim is that the amendment is violated by laws that prohibit abortion. When women are compelled to carry and bear children, they are subjected to "involuntary servitude" in violation of the amendment. Abortion prohibitions violate the Amendment's guarantee of personal liberty, because forced pregnancy and childbirth, by compelling the woman to serve the fetus, creates "that control by which the personal service of one man [sic] is disposed of or coerced for another's benefit which is the essence of involuntary servitude."6
Such laws violate the amendment's guarantee of equality, because forcing women to be mothers makes them into a servant caste, a group which, by virtue of a status of birth, is held subject to a special duty to serve others and not themselves.
This argument makes available two responses to the standard defense of such prohibitions, the claim that the fetus is a person. The first is that even if this is so, its right to the continued aid of the woman does not follow. As Judith Jarvis Thomson observes, "having a right to life does not guarantee having either a right to be given the use of or a right to be allowed continued use of another person's body -- even if one needs it for life itself."7
Giving fetuses a legal right to the continued use of their mothers' bodies would be precisely what the Thirteenth Amendment forbids. The second response is that since abortion prohibitions infringe on the fundamental right to be free of involuntary servitude, the burden is on the state to show that the violation of this right is justified. Since the thesis that the fetus is, or should at least be considered, a person seems impossible to prove (or to refute), this is a burden that the state cannot carry. If we are not certain that the fetus is a person, then the mere possibility that it might be is not enough to justify violating women's Thirteenth Amendment rights by forcing them to be
mothers.
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)No matter how much they whine about abortion, the GOP and the right wing think tanks know for a fact that if Roe was ever overturned, it would be doomsday for republicans. More than two thirds of the country supports Roe vs Wade, and the GOP is well aware of that.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)And the Supreme Court, which only pretends to be apolitical, is very aware of public opinion.
rampartc
(5,413 posts)perhaps technology has progressed past the coat hanger days.
aren't feticide pills available?
https://www.plannedparenthood.org/learn/abortion/the-abortion-pill
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)rampartc
(5,413 posts)but until that wall is built along the canadian border ,,,,,,,
d_r
(6,907 posts)Charge women who use it with murder, so I would guess it will replace some back Ally abortions but won't be uses through the mail for fear of prosecution.
rampartc
(5,413 posts)termination will be restricted to those with the wherewithal to travel.
i can also see a requirement for ultrasounds before and after crossing borders.
That's some dystopian nightmare stuff. Or h c g levels.
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)I don't see that happening.
samnsara
(17,622 posts)I will open my house for housing...some of us need to become midwives so at least the surgery will be done by someone other than a back alley henchman. We can get an underground rail road established.
pstokely
(10,529 posts)nt
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)The Right absolutely does not want to outlaw abortion due to the HUGE backlash. They will continue doing what they have always done--picking away at it but never quite reaching their (stated) goal of outlawing it. Because once it is outlawed, Right to Life stays home and Everyone Else votes.
Right to Lifers are total dupes of GOP corporate greed. They are being used. Must suck to have such low IQs. I'll bet they are easy prey for all kinds of scam artists.
obamanut2012
(26,080 posts)And God knows what else -- they have a literal runner stamp.
dembotoz
(16,808 posts)The pills will be reclassified and outlawed. Anticipate a war on drugs folks will go to prison bringing them in.
Would imagine fetuses would need to be put into a system somehow...so they feds could monitor their continued presence. Miscarriage will be looked into.
All kinds of stuff if the evangelicals have their way
Volaris
(10,272 posts)We had better damn well start screaming our heads off about universal healthcare, daycare, and public education.
'but but but that's cradle to grave soshulism'
Well, YOU FUCKERS forced the cradle, didn't you?? Now be good christians and OWN that shit.
Then watch them stammer, yammer, AND LOSE.
If roe is overturned, it will help destroy the Republican party...it will be tantamout to a national-level defibrilation event, where the shock to the heart starts it beating correctly again.
saidsimplesimon
(7,888 posts)been arrested protesting at the Capitol. They have been there for what a year now? Any Senator who votes for Kavanagh should be challenged or donations withheld during their next run for office. imo
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)be coming from the congress if it would be possible, now it it is not