Republicans Really Could Lose That Tennessee Senate Seat
The Senate race in Tennessee between former Gov. Phil Bredesen and Rep. Marsha Blackburn has flown largely under the radar this year. It’s no wonder, given all the hype about turning Texas blue and how Democratic senators in red states might be imperiled by their Kavanaugh confirmation votes. But Tennessee could be one of the pivotal contests come November.
FiveThirtyEight’s model is slightly split on the race. The polls-only version says the race is a toss-up, but when you factor in the fundamentals — including fundraising and the political climate of the state — the race leans toward Blackburn. My boss, Nate Silver, wrote about this funny little split from the model’s vantage and included lots of juicy historical data. (Is there any other kind??)
But day to day, there’s also a visible strategic difference between the two campaigns. Bredesen, an avowed centrist in the old Southern Democrat tradition, is trying to keep things local and low key — no big-name endorsements, please, unless they’re from Republicans. (Tennessee’s outgoing Republican Sen. Bob Corker all but endorsed Bredesen: “I think he’s got real appeal — I don’t think it, I know it.”) Blackburn, meanwhile, is running a very 2018 game, hoping her fealty to the Trump agenda will earn her votes in a state that the president won with nearly 61 percent of the vote. While the race might be undercovered nationally, it’s one of the most important for partisans, holding outsized power to tip the balance of the Senate. So, best for us to get to know the two principals.
It’s no secret that Bredesen is at something of a disadvantage. Al Gore was the last Democrat to be elected to the senate in Tennessee, and that was in 1990, long before he got into beards and climate change. The last time a Democrat won the presidential vote in Tennessee was in 1996; Gore even lost his home state when he ran for president in 2000. Tennessee is a distinctly red state.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/
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