**IPSOS** Likely Voter Generic Ballot- Democrats 50% Repugnants 38%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Washington, D.C. – With just a little more than a month away from the midterm elections, the Democratic candidate (50%) is still the preferred choice over the Republican candidate (38%) in the generic congressional ballot question, which asks likely voters who they would vote for if the election for U.S. Congress were held today in their district.


https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-10-03

[triron]

1. Where did that Kavanaugh bounce go?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's just one poll. OTOH the Kavadrunk bounce was based on one poll.

Better to look at the average.

[Dirty Socialist]

3. Good News!

Great Timing! We needed that.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. The timing was from 2 days ago

Notice the October 3 date. I was wondering why this poll hadn't been posted here. Apparently it was intentionally withheld to boost morale in case of a Kavanaugh confirmation.

We shouldn't be playing games like that here. The recent polling trends have been in the wrong direction and the Kavanaugh situation figures to make it worse.

Check the generic ballot on 538. The gap is now 7.8% after being above 9% three weeks ago. Three weeks ago was when the Kavanaugh situation started to dominate the news. Polling has been steadily worse from that point:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The poll was released on 538 today

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[Blue_true]

4. One poll says one thing, a second says another.

What it amounts to is that we need to ignore polls and damn vote. Vote early and make sure that our vote is tabulated. Don't wait until Election Day to mail in a ballot, or stand in line at a polling station that purposely has too few machines, VOTE EARLY and get our vote in.

[0rganism]

7. IPSOS must be using an interesting LV model

this result is entirely consistent with their previous LV poll
at first, i thought last week's poll might be an outlier, but now i'm thinking they're expecting a HUGE Democratic enthusiasm surge and the model they're using reflects that expectation. if they're correct, we have a slim chance to rescue the nation from within.