Pollster says Kavanaugh's confirmation could drive down GOP enthusiasm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Pollster Michael Cornfield said on Friday that Republican turnout during November's midterm elections could be driven down if Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed by the Senate.

"If Kavanaugh is confirmed, perhaps Republicans will feel less of a need to turn out," Cornfield, co-director of the George Washington University Poll, told Hill.TV's Jamal Simmons on "What America's Thinking."

"What will keep them angry? What will keep them motivated? If he's turned down, they may surpass Democrats intensity," he continued.

"So, really, we have to hang on this every week," he said.

Kavanaugh's confirmation process in the Senate was roiled last month after three women accused him of sexual misconduct, though he has strongly denied the accusations.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/410123-pollster-says-kavanaughs-confirmation-could-drive-down-gop

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

1. They Got What They Wanted

A Fuckhead EXTREME repub for the next 40 years.

[Meadowoak]

2. Bullshit, it will embolden them!

[rampartc]

6. +1

"winning!" trump fans are the kinf of person who loves to kick people when they are down.

[grantcart]

3. Yep. 7 seats are now in play

Get the Senate

Investigate for criminal prosecution.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. I think that's true.

With K seated they'll get what they wanted, with the added bonus of pissing off the liberal feminist man-hating snowflakes. So now they can settle back and relax, satisfied that the world will turn the way it should because before long there won't be any more baby-killing or that nasty sex talk. But when people are angry because they're about to lose something they start acting. Dems, especially women, are going to be voting like their lives depended on it, because they do.

[Andy823]

5. I agree

The so called "base", the trump base, is going to vote for whatever trump wants no matter what. A lot of people who are regular republicans only wanted one thing from trump, put right wing judges in the Supreme Court, period. I really don't think a whole lot of them care about much else. It's not just Democrats that are hurting because of trump, but republicans like farmers, orchardists, and many others who are hurting because of things he has done that affect them, their children and grand children.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Sorry...winning lends to enthusiasm and more winning

If there's one thing I learned from living 24 years in Las Vegas as a sports bettor is that revenge is bullshit. Teams/individuals that suffer devastating defeats tend to become demoralized, while teams/individuals that somehow find victory out of nowhere use that as jumpstart to a surge of energy and determination. That is especially true of college sports, which carry great emotion.

We desperately need independents to stay on our side. That is everything in the midterm. It is beyond everything. Independents dictate our fate in one race after another. Independents decide whether we regain the House.

Republicans will be incredibly motivated. I warned of the same thing when I joined this site in 2002, because the situational landscape was similar to today. Everyone was assuming Democrats would be out for revenge after the Gore robbery of 2000, and that Republicans would stay home. Meanwhile I predicted that it would be probably play out in reverse, that Republicans would naturally use the incredibly fortunate 2000 win as energy to keep going to validate the 2000 result, while many Democratic blocks would remain stunned and demoralized. I used the sports comparison at the time.

I was called a troll and an idiot. For a month or two. Then suddenly after the election I was receiving PMs from posters saying I was correct, and that everything I said made sense, but they didn't want to agree with me in front of the entire board.

The 2018 election shares many similarities to 2002 in that Republican energy will be considerably higher than conventional wisdom allows. They are not going to devote all that time to birtherism and hatred toward Hillary to pull off a major upset, and then sit back and allow many of the surrounding benefits to be taken away without a fight.

However, independents shifted red in the 2002 midterm, probably due to 9/11 and national security concerns. In 2002, 46% who identified as an independent Democrat in 2000 voted Republican. The same share dropped to 38% in 2004. So you can see how powerful the situational pull was in 2002, toward yanking those left-leaning independents to the right. Our theoretical advantage in 2018 is that there seemingly is no reason for independents to shift red like in 2002. The likelihood is just the opposite, a move of independents toward our side compared to 2016.

As I mentioned earlier, that variable is the whole ball game. We will not win based on superior energy or turnout. Situational aspects decide one election after another, even if nobody pays attention or even understands it is happening. Right now every focus should be on that small but decisive block of independents, the ones that immediately moved away from Donald Trump in early 2017. If they stay on our side we win the House. If not, Republicans maintain the House, and our country is in unimaginable horror. The senate is not going to happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. 2002 was an anomaly.

Bush was still basking in the glow of his reaction to 9/11, Americans were legitimately shook, and they wanted him to succeed. Only the fiercest partisans were still waving the Bloody Shirt of the stolen 2000 election:






On 10/5/02 Bush had a 62.8% approval rating. On 10/5/18 Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 42.2%


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


Of course his party was going to do reasonably well and buck the mid term jinx. Here's the generic ballot from 2002:


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2002_generic_congressional_vote-2180.html#polls


If you're looking for parallels look at Bill Clinton's and Barack Obama's approval ratings at this point of their presidencies , and how their parties did in the mid terms.

The 2018 election shares many similarities to 2002 in that Republican energy will be considerably higher than conventional wisdom allows. They are not going to devote all that time to birtherism and hatred toward Hillary to pull off a major upset, and then sit back and allow many of the surrounding benefits to be taken away without a fight.

Trump received 46% of the vote. The data indicates 20% of his voters disliked him and Hillary equally but voted for him because he was the change agent. That suggest the number of voters who want to vindicate birtherism or misogyny is less than 40%

Teams/individuals that suffer devastating defeats tend to become demoralized

The world of sports is replete with examples of individuals and sports teams avenging devastating defeats from Louis-Schmeling to Ali-Frazier to Leonard-Duran to Lakers-Celtics to Spurs Heat to Red Sox-Yankees...

The Democrats played a bad hand as well as they could. If they didn't fight they would have demoralized their base. By fighting they energized the Republican base. Some times you have to fight, even when losing is inevitable, because not fighting at all is worse.