Reality check - The confirmation actually helps Democrats

[realmirage]

Let's get real. The Supreme Court pick was lost on election day 2 years ago. But, rather than have some piece of shit slide in there quietly and unopposed, some piece of shit is going to be confirmed in full view, with a lot of angry women now very motivated. You think this guy is any worse than the quiet conservative judges who fly under the radar? Just look at their voting records. Yeah this one guy thinks sitting presidents should be untouchable, but he's just one guy of nine.

We have reason to hope that the midterms will be helped by this horrible confirmation. If not, then I expect the voting machines were hacked and then, well strap in your fucking seat belts because shit is going to get very real.

If the machines are not compromised, then this could actually be the best scenario we could have hoped for.

[BeckyDem]

1. No. We will need to look at impeachment of Kavanaugh because he is NOT

just any conservative justice.

[bearsfootball516]

2. They can impeach, but unless you can get 67 senators to convict, he's not going anywhere.

It's just a numbers game.

[BeckyDem]

6. Which begins with investigating him, a real thorough investigation when we take the majority.

Don't forget they denied our side documents on Kavanaugh before Christine Fords allegations were known.

[LonePirate]

34. Investigation needs to be thorough enough to merit criminal charges that will compel him to resign.

The fear of jail time is the only way he will exit the position.

[BeckyDem]

36. We must see all documents, there is a reason the Turtle refused our side to see them.

FBI has many people they did not speak with and perjury charges may be in order.

[realmirage]

3. And without a blue midterm wave, how does that happen?

Midterms first, everything else second. A GOP confirmation was always a given.

[elocs]

25. Until a Blue Wave happens, it hasn't happened.

The old counting your chickens before they hatch applies big time here.
There's no point in threatening to impeach Kavanaugh before Democrats even control the Senate.
Besides, impeachment is no guarantee of conviction and conviction is, in reality, all but impossible.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. There are too many women in

America who really love Donald J. Trump and their husbands are with them. I'll take a wait and see approach.

The House - Yes. The Senate no. And Trump wouldn't have been impeached prior to 2020 anyways.


We have to get through the next few weeks.

The Second week of November I'm going to pay attention to Tom Steyer and Michael Avenatti. Those are my top two picks for the Democratic Party in 2020.

[womanofthehills]

8. Way more women hate Donald Trump than love him

Do you see any women marching for Kavanaugh?

[JustAnotherGen]

23. There are just enough to put him in the white house

I love in a VERY red district in NJ. Extremely. These women - wealthy women who drive around in Ferraris? They love him. They love Trump.

Love him.

[Capperdan]

48. Look at their faces behind Dump at his rallies

There are plenty of them and I bet they don't drive Ferraris

[vi5]

10. And the best of Senate projections....

....leaves us MAYBE with control, and likely with Joe Manchin as the deciding vote.

And we've seen where his loyalties are and how much he is willing to stand up for what's right.

[WeekiWater]

15. It would give us the committees.

There is now downside or down playing that.

[realmirage]

18. So you'd rather the confirmation have been quiet

and democrats less energized than they are now? And how would that help us? A senate majority with manchin is better than a minority.

[elocs]

31. But Manchin as a Democrat counts towards them controlling the Senate and its agenda.

There's no point in biting off your nose to spite your face.
How many would prefer Manchin losing and a 50/50 Senate with McConnell still in control?

[Alpeduez21]

21. We have to get through to January

Not just till the first week of Nov.

[JustAnotherGen]

30. I don't want to go there

Seriously. But that said - I do think our House Majority members lives are at risk. I think when Trump throws his massive temper tantrum on the election night - it will literally include a call to arms.

I'm not being hyperbolic - they are blood thirsty savages - the Trumpians.


I'm a committee member. Very happy I live in NJ and we are most likely going to steal our Mayor and two council seats from Republicans.

I also believe Tom Malinowski is going to win.

[sam042955]

54. Civil War

I think this country is headed towards civil war. And it might just be time to stop thinking in terms of which democratic leaders can find their souls and save this country and start thinking about what other country might actually make more sense than this one. At the very least, it's definitely time to renew my passport.

[bearsfootball516]

5. Exactly. This confirmation was ALWAYS going to happen.

But any chance to GOP had to keep the house just went out the window. And the Senate probably just went up for grabs, while it was leaning GOP before.

[exboyfil]

9. Does Manchin's vote really help him?

I couldn't hold my nose if I lived in West Virginia.

[bearsfootball516]

12. I don't know if it helps him so much as it doesn't hurt him.

West Virginia is as red of a state as it gets, and it takes a fair amount of Republican support to win there as a Democrat.

Would he have lost his election if he voted No? I'm not sure. Would the gap between him and Morrisey tightened? For sure.

[Alpeduez21]

22. He's up by 12

and polling showed a no vote would've helped him.

[exboyfil]

7. He doesn't strike me as being all that stable

So they may not get the 40 years they expect from him.

[JustAnotherGen]

33. These words make me

Very happy! You may be right!

[WeekiWater]

11. You make good points.

53 years old. That really hurts.

[bluestarone]

13. Does not help DEMS (My opinion)

His confirmation is the DEATH SENTENCE to the Mueller investigation!!

[realmirage]

20. you do know that there are 9 justices?

[bluestarone]

29. OH yes i do!!

BUT They have a plan, i'm sure of that! I truly hope i'm wrong here!! For the sake of our country! I WOULD LOVE IT IF I'M WRONG!!

[RhodeIslandOne]

45. Can you explain how?

At what point is the SCOTUS going to get involved in that?

[bluestarone]

49. MY opinion is When the SC is called on to decide if Sitting President can be indicted they will rule

FOR THE PRESIDENT! Also the will decide the DOUBLE JEOPARDY so He cannot be charged twice. (which will be BULLSHIT)

[RhodeIslandOne]

50. Exactly what case will set this precedent? n/m

[sfwriter]

14. Yup. That's the size of it.

Manchin will lose support from his base. Oops buddy, called that wrong.

EVERY OTHER GOP TRAITOR WILL HEAR OUR FURY.

As the stories drip - drip - drip for years forward, the GOP's behavior on this one will be a rallying cry.

Rinse repeat.

[DeminPennswoods]

16. Agree, he was always going to be confirmed

Weird as this might sound, his being on the court might just push Chief Justice Roberts a little to the left. Roberts is conservative, but an institutionalist. I think Kavanaugh and Thomas will be regarded as the two clowns on the court, just as Scalia and Thomas were before him.

Heilman said last night that McConnell has never faced political consequences for breaking every rule necessary to get what he wanted. I expect this calculation won't hold come Nov. Next year McConnell, Collins, Ernst, Grahman, Cornyn, Sasse, Daines, Capito are all up for re-election in 2020. Ernst, Sasse, Daines and Capito are all running for re-election for the first time, which makes them especially vulnerable.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. If confirmation was always going to happen then we couldn't have played it worse

I clicked away from Collins at least a dozen times and didn't listen to more than 2 minutes tops, but one thing I agreed with was her opening point when she talked about all the special interest groups who immediately savaged the nomination from the outset, including ones that seemingly didn't even know Kavanaugh's name.

I hated that approach because it handed simpleton Republicans an easy big picture talking point that uninformed voters are going to agree with. Chuck Schumer has the worst political instincts of all time so naturally he had the same approach.

We had legitimate reasons to oppose Kavanaugh but too often we made it look like the timing was the only consideration and priority.

[realmirage]

28. Where do you think all these extra repuke votes are going to magically come from?

They already vote in steady numbers. Always have. It's the democrats that have room to expand. Without a reason, without motivation, how does that happen?

[Meadowoak]

19. This will only embolden the repukes!

[nocoincidences]

24. It seems to me that with his outburst during the Senate hearing

and the thousands of documents that are going to be released eventually that he will have to recuse himself from a lot of cases.

Maybe that's how we get him out of there, when he turns out to be less useful to the Republicans than they have planned.

[sam042955]

56. Retired Justice John Paul Stevens

That's essentially what retired Justice John Paul Stevens stated in his opposition to Kavanaugh. He said the SC needs a FULL TIME justice and that since Kavanaugh will have to recuse himself in so many instances he will be, de facto, a part time justice. And he urged the Senators to heed his warning. Yet incredulously, they did not.

[Squinch]

26. I disagree, but at this point I might as well decide to agree with this going forward.

[Freethinker65]

27. Reality check. This confirmation hurts those that believe in the constitution

It hurts females. It hurts victims of harassment. It hurts the integrity of our judicial system. It hurts those that believe in individual rights.

It makes a mockery of Senate hearings, vows to tell the truth, and the meaning of impartiality.

[realmirage]

32. And how exactly were democrats ever going to stop a GOP confirmation

after election day 2 years ago? That's the whole point.

[Freethinker65]

38. I did not say they could.

My point was regardless of which party is seen as winning this confirmation is a loss for our country and our constitution.

[realmirage]

39. In this context

this was the best scenario we could have hoped for

[MadDAsHell]

35. I was told women were angry going into 2016.

Then Trump got like 30% of the female vote. Always skeptical about the “angry voters” concept because it almost never plays out in reality.

[realmirage]

43. I agree with your skepticism but a lot has gone down since then

If 2 years of this shit hasn't woken them up, nothing will. Well, maybe the end of roe v wade. Maybe

[MadDAsHell]

51. Yeah but something like 40% of women are still anti-choice.

So even the end of Roe v Wade only affects the half of the populace that already supports us.

[realmirage]

53. It affects those who comfortably thought

they could vote republican because roe v wade was settled. I've seen polling that suggests many women gop voters do not want roe v wade overturned.

There are a lot of people in that other 60 percent who don't vote. But maybe when an earthquake like the end of roe v wade happens, they'll show up.

Not sure about that 40% stat either. You have evidence to support it?

[MadDAsHell]

55. I thought the 60/40% stat was pretty common knowledge...

DU can be very misleading on that, as so many posters lump women into one homogenous voting bloc (e.g. “Women are so angry, no way Trump can win in 2016!!”), when in reality women, like men, are anything but a homogenous voting group. Having a vagina, unfortunately, does not automatically make one pro-choice. In fact, the flawed assumption amongst many (based on really no evidence) that women are a locked-up vote for us simply because of the abortion issue has probably cost us more than a few elections.

Here’s a couple links noting the stats on abortion rights: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/20/can-pro-choice-and-pro-life-women-find-common-ground-its-complicated/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8e5213c2f2a1

[John Fante]

37. It helps our chances of taking the senate.

But let's cross that bridge when we get there, please.

[wryter2000]

40. He's not just a conservative

He’s a sexual predator

[realmirage]

44. Yeah. But it seems that things have to get really bad

before people actually wake up. This seems like the natural order of things. People ignore the disease until it starts to threaten your life, and then you finally go to the god damned doctor.

[alarimer]

41. I hope you are right

Long-term though he is dangerous. Not only will we lose Roe, we will lose the right to birth control altogether. And we all may lose our health care in the end.

BUT I think this will add fuel to the flame and enable the next D president to add two more justices. There is nothing in the Constitution that says how many there have to be.

And it is also clear we need to solidify some of those norms in law. The VP normally does not vote on nominations (because it's a clear conflict of interest and most of the time, they haven't). But we need to make that law (not sure how).

[realmirage]

46. Yes, that would have happened with any GOP pick though.

At least people are pissed about this one. Maybe it will motivate them. We'll see

[Danascot]

42. I'm hoping Kavanaugh will be beset with a civil action

or maybe a few. There's nothing about a SCOTUS justice to prevent it. Does Avanatti, Blasey-Ford's or Ramirez' lawyers have enough to get something started? I don't know but I'm sure someone here does.

A criminal charge on top of those would be great.

Plus, if we take control of the House, all the crap that has already come out about Kavanaugh could be investigated in detail. And you know there's lots more still to be unearthed.

None of that 'We have to look to the future and not look back' BS this time.

[realmirage]

47. Or if he's disbarred?

I wonder what happens then?

[RhodeIslandOne]

52. You don't actually need to be a lawyer to sit on the court

[CozyMystery]

57. I hope if the Democrats are the majority in both houses, they add more justices to the Supremes nt