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predictit has kavanaugh at 97%. (Original Post) unblock Oct 2018 OP
Believe or not that was exactly their prediction for Hillary winning Florida in 2016 hours before triron Oct 2018 #1
Sorry...that type of invented bullshit doesn't work when I'm around Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #2

triron

(22,007 posts)
1. Believe or not that was exactly their prediction for Hillary winning Florida in 2016 hours before
Fri Oct 5, 2018, 05:11 PM
Oct 2018

she lost it.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
2. Sorry...that type of invented bullshit doesn't work when I'm around
Fri Oct 5, 2018, 05:31 PM
Oct 2018

I've dealt with this for decades, people who believe they can make up anything regarding betting odds from years or decades ago, since nobody will know enough to call them out on it.

I laugh because I remember the numbers, almost without exception. I've been doing this since 1984. You are hardly the first I've corrected and you won't be the last. It might happen again before the end of the week or even the end of the day, on other sites. Right wingers are particularly prone to conveniently misremembering. They'll claim Trump was a 10/1 underdog, or whatever.

Political speculators are never dense enough to force 97% on an active market amidst so much uncertainty and so early in the process. Hillary never rose above low 70s theoretical likelihood in Florida. Then it reversed dramatically beginning at about 8:15 PM election night.

Here is the Florida chart from Predictit in 2016, including the dramatic shift. It won't directly link to the Chart but if you click on Chart -- and away from Contracts -- you will see the progress of the odds:

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2103/Which-party-will-win-Florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election

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