"Republicans Really *Could* Lose that Tennessee Senate Seat" according to 538

[JudyM]

Their simplest model has TN as a tossup! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/tennessee/#lite

It’s no secret that Bredesen is at something of a disadvantage. Al Gore was the last Democrat to be elected to the senate in Tennessee, and that was in 1990, long before he got into beards and climate change. The last time a Democrat won the presidential vote in Tennessee was in 1996; Gore even lost his home state when he ran for president in 2000. Tennessee is a distinctly red state.

But Bredesen was also a popular politician; when he left Tennessee’s governor’s mansion in 2011, one survey found he had a 63 percent favorability rating. Bredesen served as mayor of Nashville from 1991 to 1999 and was elected governor in 2002, beating out his Republican opponent by under 2 points. He was reelected in 2006, walloping his GOP challenger by 39 points...

Blackburn, on the other hand, is doing what she can to bring the Senate race onto national terms. A polished politician who was elected to Congress in 2002, Blackburn has found a home in the president’s wing of the Republican Party. She gave a speech endorsing Trump at the 2016 Republican National Convention, saying of Trump’s nomination, “let’s get ’er done,” a slightly incongruous invocation of Larry the Cable Guy. She’s also voted with Trump 92 percent of the time and her Senate bid received an early endorsement from the PAC of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

Volunteer or donate: https://www.bredesen.com
Voter registration ends this Tuesday.
Let’s get ‘er done, is right!

[Slammer]

1. Getting an endorsement from Bannon

...should be enough by itself to disqualify someone from holding political office. At least in the US.

[JudyM]

8. Right, if only.

[peacebuzzard]

2. Bredesen will slide some blue colors to the state of Tennessee.

[Separation]

3. Already have!

There will also be 3 votes from this family that are voting for Bredesen.

[RhodeIslandOne]

4. I absolutely think they will

Bredesen has won state wide and is well liked. Most people in Tennessee only know Blackburn as a drunk and a media whore who will go on any national TV show that gives her a minute to spew her nonsense.

I have more faith TN will go for Bredesen than IN might stay with Donnelly.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Blackburn is now trading at 68 cents on Predictit

I believe that is the proper move, although I am not involved on Predictit because the price was never low enough.

Bredesen is popular but Tennessee is now extremely conservative, much moreso than the '90s. This article tried to make the case that Tennesseans are less conservative than residents believe, but the Vanderbilt poll numbers from late 2017 did the opposite, with 48% listing themselves as conservative to only 17% liberals. That is an incredibly conservative state. Texas, for example, always registers 44% conservatives. The national number is 36% conservatives to 27% liberals:

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2017/12/14/vanderbilt-poll-tennesseans-are-more-moderate-than-people-think/

I believe the 538 projection on this race has been overly favorable to Bredesen's chances throughout, just like 538's senate model has been slanted blue. My friend from Las Vegas loaded up on Blackburn because he has told me for several years that Tennessee has shifted much more red than people want to accept, and that the state polling model is now screwed up because the state is seldom polled anymore, after shifting more to the right. He believes Tennessee is the new Alaska in terms of polling overstating the Democrat. For example, that Vanderbilt poll a week prior to election day in 2016 had Trump carrying the state by 11 points. He won by more than 26 points.

Check out how bad the Tennessee polling was in 2016. Nate Silver's model relies on polling being reliable:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tn/tennessee_trump_vs_clinton-5911.html

[JudyM]

7. Here's hoping you're wrong.

[RealityChik]

6. But maybe not...

Don't forget about vote flipping Republicans. In any state where Repubs control the election infrastructure and logistics, flipping election tallies in a close election is a piece of cake. That said, assume the 'Blue Wave" is a long shot unless we get landslide wins.

That should be our only focus right now. Save paybacks for AFTER we win. Think LANDSLIDES, people!

[Duppers]

9. Made my 2nd donation a few weeks ago.

Wish I could vote in the state.