Soooo.. this is the Kavanaugh bump Republicans were talking about?

[JHan]

https://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-press/2018/10/10/politico-morning-consult-poll-kavanaugh-confirmation-energizes-democrats-more-than-gop-889261

[NewJeffCT]

1. That seems like a blue wave is building to me

since there are more registered Democrats than there are Republicans

[Wounded Bear]

4. When more people vote, Dems win...

When less people vote, Repubs win.

Been true for a long time.

[trc]

14. We have to overcome there voter suppression with numbers so great they can't

be hidden away or lost or determined not to be valid or whatever else these folks do to cheat their way into office.

[KewlKat]

2. Works for me! A bump is a bump even if it isn't for the con's peeps

[BeckyDem]

3. I can't wait for November 6.

[saidsimplesimon]

5. Boomerang

I am a fan of the movie "Hook".

[msongs]

6. the bump is his votes on court rulings. so far he is earning his bump costs nt

[rownesheck]

7. Keep in mind.

The republicans are topped out on voters. All their voters vote all the time. We have crap tons of people on our side who don't vote every time. If just a few of those apathetic people get out and vote every time, we will always win.

[JHan]

10. true, we can't afford complacency.

I'm not bothered by the pundit class wanting to turn this into a horse race if it keeps voters on edge. Historical precedent and current polling point to a blue tsunami wave but we can't afford complacency. And once we take back Congress, we have to keep it for a while.

[joshcryer]

13. That's the depressing part.

[FakeNoose]

8. We've got a job to do

[BeckyDem]

9. I think I have to steal that.

LOL its really great.

[Harker]

11. All Democrats ought to be motivated to vote.

How it's fewer than 100% escapes me.

[griloco]

15. And how many Republicans were motivated to vote blue?

[AdamGG]

16. I hope this is true. Nate Silver has dropped the odds of Democratic Senate since Kavanaugh

Last edited Thu Oct 11, 2018, 11:23 PM - Edit history (1)

If there's a pro Republican "Kavanaugh effect" it seems that it's focused in states that are already very red. I look at the polls/ predictions on fivethirtyeight.com every day or two and although the odds for taking the House haven't changed much, since the Kavanaugh fight started, Nate Silver's odds for taking the Senate have dropped from 1/3 to 1/4 to 1/5. He has the Democratic chances of winning in North Dakota, Tennessee & Texas significantly reduced from what they were two weeks ago.

There's still nearly a month for things to change, and this news should only make us focus and work harder, but though I don't want it to be true, there does seem to be a post-Kavanaugh effect that is currently benefitting the Republicans, at least in terms of their chances for keeping control of the Senate.