Evaluating Enthusiasm With Less Than a Month to Go
In a nutshell, here’s what’s going on: Republican enthusiasm is about on par with where it was at the height of the anti-Obama fervor of 2010. But, Democratic enthusiasm is higher than it has ever been.
Here’s the other thing. Regardless of where turn-out ends up in November, the enthusiasm gap advantage that Democrats enjoyed throughout 2017-2018 has already taken its toll. It was that energy that prompted a record number of Democrats to run for Congress. And, it prompted Democratic donors to pump a record amount of money to these candidates. Without that enthusiasm boost in 2017 and early 2018, Democrats don’t expand the playing field and don’t have enough money to keep this many seats in play. The barn door may be closed now, but the horses have already escaped.
But, enthusiasm and turnout is only one part of the two-part challenge for Republicans in the House. Earlier this year, a GOP strategist told me: "If we tie with the Democrats on turnout, but lose with Independents on vote preference, we are still in deep doodoo."
I checked in with that strategist this week who says that Kavanaugh "for now, solved the GOP enthusiasm problem. An incredible shift from two weeks ago." But, "the problems among Independents have not been solved by any stretch."...
This year also has a lot of similarities to 2006, as Republican incumbents who easily carried their CDs just two years earlier, are getting pulled under by an unpopular president. But, back then, Democrats were picking up seats in rural/blue collar country (southeastern Ohio, western North Carolina and southern Indiana) and coming up short in suburban Philadelphia, Chicago and Connecticut. This year, however, those suburbs are more vulnerable than ever, while Democrats are more likely to fall short in the blue collar/rural districts that Obama carried back in 2012.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/evaluating-enthusiasm-less-month-go
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