FL-26 IS BREAKING IN OUR DIRECTION

[RandySF]

MIAMI — One of the nation’s most endangered Republican members of Congress, Carlos Curbelo, is nearly tied with his Democratic rival in a new poll that shows the GOP is struggling in Florida’s southernmost seat.

Curbelo’s 46-45 percent lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is well within the 4-point error margin for the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey of the Hispanic-heavy Miami district, where President Donald Trump is unpopular. The poll of 625 likely voters was conducted for Telemundo 51.

With 43 percent having a favorable impression of him, Curbelo is better-liked than Mucarsel-Powell, who has a 34 percent favorable rating. But only 25 percent disapprove of her compared to 35 percent for Curbelo — a sign, says Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, that Curbelo is in trouble in Florida’s 26th Congressional District.

“His negatives are higher than Powell’s and you got a sense that this is real borderline for him,” Coker said. “A 46-45 poll for an incumbent isn’t good. I wouldn’t be sleeping at night if I were him.”

The district has one of the highest concentrations of Hispanic voters in Florida, at 63 percent. And Curbelo is faring better than the Republicans at the top of the ticket in the poll.

Gov. Rick Scott trails Sen. Bill Nelson by 8 points in the U.S. Senate race in the district, and Ron DeSantis is losing to Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by 7 points in the gubernatorial contest.

The district, which stretches from the Miami area to Key West, has swung back and forth between the parties. Curbelo won the seat in 2016 even as Trump lost it by about 16 points to Hillary Clinton. For a Republican, Curbelo has been an outspoken critic of the president. Still, he has sided with policies supported by the president far more often than not.


https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/10/15/curbelo-almost-tied-with-challenger-in-tough-congressional-seat-for-gop-649478



DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL





https://debbiemucarselpowell.com

[Cha]

1. KR!!

[Scurrilous]

2. K&R

[TexasTowelie]

3. Another K&R.

[sheshe2]

4. Happy Dance!

[SunSeeker]

5. Good! nt

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I've been following it here in Miami

I could sense Curbelo getting nervous based on the tone of some of his recent commercials.

Mucarsel-Powell comes across as smiling and likable. I think she would have even higher net favorable rating if she were more well known.

BTW, those Nelson and Gillum leads make much more sense than the 4 point margin for each in the recent Mason-Dixon poll of FL-27. I mentioned in comments here and on Predictit and several other sites that I didn't think that FL-27 poll was a representative sample of my district. They had Maria Salazar leading Donna Shalala by 2 points.

Today the New York Times began an interactive live poll of FL-27. Very early but Shalala led by huge margin after the first 170 responders -- 58% to 30%.

I ran back to Predictit but the price on Shalala had jumped to 68 cents after dropping almost to 50/50 a few days ago.

[TlalocW]

7. Is the old guard Cubano republicans finally losing influence?

It would eventually have to with different ethnic, including different Latino segments of society moving in, their dying off, and their grandchildren and great-grandchildren not so enamored about the pre-Castro days and returning home to take back what's theirs when all they've known is America.

TlalocW