General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo the Nevada Clark firewall after EV has finished at 47,000
This is a good start.
Dems have an Edge of 12% over the GOP in Clark after EV. As Clark goes, so does Nevada. If Dems can crank out a few more their voters on Election day, they will win this handily.
GOP will have to basically have to turn out there voters in big numbers on Election day in Rurals and try (I suspect they have cannibalised their vote already) and get Dems in Clark under 10% edge if they are going to have a chance to win.
Indies made up 20% of the EV, if they go the Dems way as expected, if they go to Dems by 10% over the GOP, I would probably say its over.
Only a few days to know whats going to happen.........
I reckon Laxalt is in trouble in the Gov race and Jared and Bundy may well rip votes from him.....
Added update from Ralston :
U.S. Senate: Slight lean D
Gov: Slight lean D
CD3: Slight lean D
CD4: Likely D
State Senate: D at least 12, chance at 14
Assembly: D at least 26, chance at 28
Democrats had their best last day of any midterm in history, with waves in Clark and Washoe that boosted the urban firewall to close to 50,000 47,000 in Clark and 1,800 in Washoe. The rurals (not all are in) cut into that lead by almost 2,000 voted Friday, but the 9,000-ballot edge in Clark (almost 20 percent win) and 1,000-ballot edge in Washoe far outstripped the usual rural hemorrhaging.
The statewide lead, once the rurals all report, will be about D+23,000, or 3.7 percent. The Clark lead is now 45-34, or just two points under the reg edge, so if there is not much base-bleeding and if indies are not going big for the Repubs, Steve Sisolak and Jacky Rosen will have double-digit leads coming out of Clark.
Washoe seems very, very unlikely to help Repubs (Dean Heller won it by 20,000 votes during his 2012 miracle win), and the rurals are not very far above their actual percentage of the state vote about half a percent to do enough damage on Election Day (this aint 2016) unless there are a LOT of folks in those 15 counties who waited. Its possible, just not likely.
The bottom line: Republicans need a really good day Tuesday to stop Democrats from at least a pastel blue wave and it may get to navy blue if the Dems hold their own on Election Day. It appears that these elections are breaking for the Dems at the end.
If I were Dean Heller, who has bucked large firewalls before (see 2012) and Adam Laxalt, I would be worried.
dem4decades
(11,300 posts)sunonmars
(8,656 posts)asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)everyone changing their avatar to I VOTED by Tuesday...
Leith
(7,813 posts)Hubby, mom-in-law, and I all voted this past week at the Galleria Mall. It was quick, easy, poll workers were very nice and helpful. When we were done, we went to the new Golden Corral for lunch. It was a good day.
By the way, Question # 3 on the ballot about breaking up the monopoly: do. not. be. fooled. Mom-in-law lived in Pennsylvania when that ballot measure was approved there and it was a nightmare. The retail energy provider is assigned to you at random, it then purchases power from the monopoly, adds their mark-up, and gives you the runaround if you call with any concern or problem. It's a fuggin' reichwing privatization scam.
Quiet_Dem_Mom
(599 posts)Quiet_Dem_Dad and Quiet_Dem_Son (first time voting!) and I went all Dems. 3 blue drops in a sea of red in this county.
Ok, son could care less about politics but let me mark his sample ballot and he voted accordingly! Yea, I kinda voted twice! Mwa ha ha.
All you need to know about Q3 is Adelson is the $$ guy pushing the Yes votes.
no.
Leith
(7,813 posts)No other reason needed to be against it.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Hillary hung on to win Nevada in 2016 but it was closer than the polling and closer than Ralston's estimates after early voting numbers. We can't discount that the white rural and working class percentages become more lopsided all the time. Florida 2016 likewise looked very good after early voting but those rural white counties stormed in for Trump on election day, defying all prior trends and the projected numbers out of those counties.
The concern in Nevada is that many polls have indicated that independents are not as favorable as elsewhere, and Rosen is losing more Democrats than Heller is losing Republicans.
Regardless, Clark County has a tremendously sophisticated and relentless operation going on, and combined with probably the best early voting setup in the country it enables us to build that firewall edge. I think we'll narrowly prevail. The party with the national tilt tends to win the vast majority of the photo finishes.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)losing democrats as heller still has his healthcare votes around his neck, a unifying anchor on most republicans across America...independents appear breaking democratic as general polls indicate one after another and of course the Hispanic vote is a player in Nevada and any uptick in that demographic will be beneficial to democrats.
Nevada GOP been betting on a less enthusiastic early democratic vote, they didn't get it.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)wrote in (counts as not voting on a race). Hillary expected a normal Election Day turnout from Dems, she did not get that, at least in Florida. The people who assumed she had it in the bag and didn't see a need to vote, most likely learned an important lesson.
I just don't think there is going to be the type of rural turnout as in 2016 for Trump, for two reasons. Their upside simply can match urban Dem upside, even if they max-max out. Second, Trump's policies have badly hurt some of the rural communities, that should cause some enthusiasm issues there.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)the Reno news has been all over Laxalt for his beating the crap out of a Cop and lying on his Lawyer review board application. This story was not reported at anytime here in Vegas do to the Adelson control. Ralston posted a version on his Nevada Independent site.
BTW,no one talks about the Tesla effect in that area. Most of the Hires came from California.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Dems seem to turn out more on Election Day.
Rightwing republicans maxed out in 2016, Dems fell far short of reaching respectable turnout. Now Dems are surging.
Even if Indies break slightly for republicans (seems doubtful), republicans should lose handily.