Just looked at a cnn map of predictions for tomorrow.

[redwitch]

They had the repub Stefanik ahead of Tedra Cobb by 11 points. With a margin of error of +/-12.
I have never seen such a high margin of error. Can anyone help explain this to me?

[dameatball]

1. Maybe a smaller than optimal sample? I dunno.

[lame54]

2. They should change the term " margin of error" to...

" margin of republican lies"

[marylandblue]

3. It's not a polling MOE

It's a subjective uncertainty estimate. There's been only one poll there, so he is relying on partisan lean, prior elections and demographics. So basically he is saying, a good year for Dems will make this close. A great year will produce a major upset. But we have much better chances for a pickup elsewhere

[redwitch]

4. I know the campaign has their internals.

I am encouraged. The 21st has been written off but I really think Tedra Cobb has got this. I have honestly never seen so many people volunteering for a race up here. Stefanik is always in hiding and she is going to pay for that.

[marylandblue]

5. That sort of ground level data can't be gathered for nationwide forecasts

Too much local knowledge and private data required. But I did see a similar thing in a rural part of Virginia. Lots of volunteers, lots of voter enthusiasm. If NY-21 turns Dem, it means we are at the very optimistic end for gains, which is something like 60 to 90 seats.

[redwitch]

6. Praying that is so!

I can’t wait to vote tomorrow!

[brooklynite]

7. Answer: most cows don't have cell phones...

[redwitch]

10. I live in Washington County.

Have been here since early 90s and I have seen big changes in the demographics. I think Tedra Cobb will win this and I think the cows would vote for her if they could.

[marylandblue]

11. Too bad the GOP is suppressing the cow vote.

[redwitch]

13. Those bastards! nt

[blaze]

14. I think they did!!

[sunonmars]

8. hers the cnn link for tomorrow night bookmark it

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results

[Persondem]

9. Thank you for the positive vibe for Tedra Cobb. I have relatives in St. Lawrence

County who are working really hard to help her beat Stefanik. It would be nice if their efforts had a payoff, and nice for the people in that district who could use a real advocate.

[redwitch]

12. Tedra's supporters are real worker bees.

Met a woman last week who has made over 1000 calls. I have been to countless house parties in southern Washington County alone. Stefanik has had to pay people to phone bank for her. A young couple from Troy came to our action center yesterday to get a walking list for Tedra, they have been campaigning hard for Delgado in the 19th but wanted to help Tedra too.

Tell your relatives up there that their counterparts down here love them for what they are doing!

[Captain_New_York]

15. Lots of motivated Democrats

I live at the end of a private road in the very rural NY 19. I have been visited by two sets of young door knockers in the last few days. We have participated in post card writing and phone banking. If we don’t flip it will not be from a lack of hard work

[redwitch]

16. I salute you Sir!

So excited about the work being done everywhere!