538 : GOP should be worried - Democrats gained by more than 3 pts in our final polls over last ones

[sunonmars]

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Democrats gained by more than 3 pts in our final polls over our initial ones, and this individual-level analysis indicates that's not merely because of identifiable changes in the composition of the sample, like more Dems

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This is the single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans, in that Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts, which might lead one to wonder what's happening in the districts that *haven't* been polled recently.

538 are saying that the gains should be in the upper estimate of what they predicted.....

Looks like Dems are closing well.

[honest.abe]

1. This is shaping up to be something quite remarkable tomorrow.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Some repugs are worried but dumbS**T won't listen to them. He alone, knows it all. nt

[lagomorph777]

6. I hope he goes on TV and makes a final pitch tonight, sweaty and sniffling with fear.

That'll close the Blue Tsunami deal for sure.

[groundloop]

7. It's a scary thought, but what if Tiny DOES know something nobody else does

Vlad: "Don't sweat it, your repub party will get just enough votes, I'll see to it."

GET OUT THE VOTE !!!!!!

[Scurrilous]

3. K&R

[mucifer]

4. this is good. Right before 2016, 538 gave trump a 29% possibility of winning the electoral college:

now 538 is giving the house a 12% chance of staying republican

[pnwmom]

10. Hillary had gotten down to the upper 60's at the end. So this is much better. n/t

[Le Gaucher]

5. My heart is RACING .... can't wait for tomorrow !!

[Demsrule86]

9. Me too.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Most interesting exchange and numbers I've seen today

Something like this is exponentially more significant than late individual polls.

I've been thinking that the generic edge will be closer to 7 than 8+, but maybe not if late deciders turn our way.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Hey..do do you know if the early vote division between

Democratic voters and Republican voters is right? I ask because I just saw one that said 63% of the early voters in Texas were Republican. Which was very demoralizing. In Texas you don't sign in to vote by party so this number would have had to have come from some type of analysis of voter registrations or exit polls or something.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I can't answer that well

Beto is my favorite candidate this cycle but I don't see a path to victory given 44% conservatives in that state, so I haven't been paying attention to specifics. I think it will be a demoralizing loss by maybe 3-6 points. A Democrat in a federal race in Texas 2018 is like trying to hit a golf drive over a 500 yard lake.

At first glance I would be doubtful that Republicans have that type of split in early voting.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. I'm living here now among them. My gut feeling

is that there are too many wingnuts here in Texas. But I still feel optimistic. I think we will get mostly there. Next time. ( Hope I am 100% wrong.). Will help Beto tomorrow with all I've got.

[Honeycombe8]

11. I'm skeptically, meekly....optimistic!!!! (But I've been burned before. TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED!)

It ain't over til the cows come home or the curvy lady sings!

[SpankMe]

12. It isn't over until it's over. I'm holding my breath.

November 8th, 2016 taught me not only to not count my chickens before they've hatched, but to wait until they've hatched, scratched the ground a few times and had a meal.

There's still an open question to me about how all of the Republican Gerrymandering, voter suppression, election fraud, Russian coordination and overall nastiness will affect the outcome.

[List left]

13. Vote Vote Vote

Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. One more Vote. Just saw a wingnut acquaintance

On Facebook bragging about how she never votes and voted this time even had a picture of her I voted sticker. So there goes my vote cancelled. I really do think that in Texas every woman should vote for Beto. He is kind and considerate and intelligent and he cares about people. He has demonstrated that. He is not the most hated man in DC to boot

[ginnyinWI]

15. That's because Trump is acting like a complete fool. n/t

[blue-wave]

17. Excellent, Excellent, Excellent!!

The vast majority of winning candidates will peak or bounce ahead in the polls the weekend before the election. This is really good news!!

[KelleyKramer]

18. GOTV!

[Takket]

19. in 2016......

nearly EVERY undecided in the last week broke for drumpf because of the comey letter.

hopefully this year is the opposite.

i'm still holding out hope we gain those two seats in the senate.

we just need some combination of MO + FL + ND + AZ + TX + TN + NV that equals 5 blue seats and we'll be at 51

I'm assuming we hold all the other contested seats which i think are pretty safe.

The Senate is SO important because then we hold the committee chairs, and decide what legislation comes to the floor, and we stop any future kavanaughs on SCOTUS