If the current polling is correct the Senate will end up 50 / 50 with Pence being the deciding vote

[Quixote1818]

Dems lead in all these close races:

MO, NV, FL, AZ, MT, IN

So it comes down to the blue wave sweeping either Texas, ND or TN into our column.

I would not at all be surprised if we take all the states we are leading in and then nab one that we are not leading in if the polling models are slightly off because the huge amount of young voters coming out.

Regardless, if we can end up 50 / 50 in the Senate, that alone would be a huge win! That would mean we gained when we had a HUGE number of Dems up for re-election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[wcmagumba]

1. If it were a 50/50 split...

would the committees be split or would they all still be thugs in charge?

[MrGrieves]

2. thugs

[Quixote1818]

4. Don't know if that is true. See this article

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/303644-even-steven-how-would-a-50-50-senate-operate

[Quixote1818]

3. Interesting question. Here is what I just found.

Somehow this brief period of forced bipartisanship has been overlooked amid the bitterness around the crazy Bush-Gore election and eventual Supreme Court decision. But after a 50-50 Senate emerged from the 2000 Senate election cycle, the parties’ leaders, Republican Trent Lott and Democrat Tom Daschle, agreed to a unique power-sharing agreement that actually led to a reasonably productive Senate early in 2001. Lott and Daschle agreed to split each committee roster evenly and divide staff resources in half, while Republicans technically retained the chairmanships and the ability to convene hearings and markups. Lott was given the power to proceed to legislation that had received a tie vote in a committee.

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/303644-even-steven-how-would-a-50-50-senate-operate

[Jersey Devil]

5. My guess is that they did this because there were no Senate rules to cover the situation

I have no idea if they fixed the rules to apply to ties for the future. If a committee vote is tied I also do not think the veep can break the tie on a committee vote.

[Whiskeytide]

14. Wouldn't Dems still be the minority ...

... technically because of independents? I think that's the position Turtle Shit will take.

[Bettie]

17. Here is the difference

McTurtle would never, ever agree to share anything with Dems.

[dsc]

18. the difference here is that Gore was still in office as VP when the Senate was set up

but since Pence precedes this Congress he can provide the vote to set up as he sees fit.

[Polybius]

6. "Dems lead in MO, NV, FL, AZ, MT, IN"

In MO, RCP averages 0.6+ for Hawley. It's a toss-up.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html

Nevada is an exact tie.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

In AZ, oddly enough, they have moved McSally as averaging +1%. I had thought McTrump was losing in all of the recent polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

[Quixote1818]

7. 538 is always a lot more accurate than Real Clear politics.

Real Clear Politics is right wing.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/

[Polybius]

10. Right-wing?

No idea, but when if comes to their polling, they just average out all of the major polls and form one super-poll for their RCP average. That part seems pretty neutral, unless they are leaving out some reliable polls?

[Quixote1818]

12. They play around with with polls to include in their average

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/real-credibility-problems/

[Polybius]

15. Thank you, I did not know that

I had assumed they were neutral, which is what I look for in polling. Looks like they leave out good polls yet include Rasmussen (which is about as right-wing as it gets).

[Quixote1818]

19. I am glad you had me look all this stuff up again. I remember all this coming out about them

on DU years ago. So it's possible they have improved. I do know 538 really tires to stay neutral as their entire reputation depends on getting elections right and it's just notable that each site has totally different conclusions on several candidates.

[Quixote1818]

8. You can also look at the betting odds which tend to be very accurate

https://www.predictit.org/markets/1/US-Elections

[Polybius]

9. Thanks, I didn't know about that

Checking it out now!

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Here are better Predictit links

They changed their format recently and the new version is not nearly as clean and easy to view as the "legacy" version:

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Browse/Group/66/State-Elections

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Browse/Group/54/Senate

[Ms. Toad]

11. Interesting!

[Garrett78]

13. Hawley and McSally huge favorites, according to that site.

[Quixote1818]

16. I know, which is a bit nerve-racking but at least they have those Dems surging right now

and they have us up on states like NV and Florida. Also, AZ in the past 24 hours has been switching back and forth: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3812/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-race-in-Arizona-in-2018

You have to click on the 24 hour tab.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Not huge favorites but the totality is huge

Republicans are trading at 87 cents on a dollar to retain the senate. That type of favoritism is not being portrayed around here:

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/2703/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2018-midterms

[OliverQ]

20. The silver lining to this is Pence would be miserable having to show up to the Senate every single

time there is a vote.

[sarcasmo]

23. Manchin and Doug Jones mean the Democratic party is minus 2 on many votes.