Exit poll had 44% of Florida voters saying Gillum was too liberal for state

[Awsi Dooger]

Admittedly I am on tilt. As a Miamian I have to come to grips with DeSantis and continuing Scott.

But even when Gillum and Nelson led early by decent margins I was shocked when CNN showed that exit poll graphic. It had 45% saying Gillum's politics were "just right" for Florida and 44% saying he was "too liberal."

That is an ominous split. I was immediately worried about the rural and outstanding vote. Contrast to a wing nut like DeSantis who somehow was only listed as "too conservative" by 37% of Florida voters.

Obviously in a tight loss there are tons of factors that may have contributed and caused the flip. But now I think back to the primary when I voted for more moderate Gwen Graham above Gillum, partially for that reason, that she seemed to fit the ideology of the state and she also led the polling projections against DeSantis and other Republicans.

Then we were thrilled with Gillum and tried to rationalize that his energy and ability to bring out the youth/minority vote was actually our best option. Now he apparently lost, and Abrams in Georgia is not close.

I know this won't be popular. I'll be the guinea pig. But as I warned Chris Bowers on MyDD beginning in 2006 it is simply much easier for Republicans to elect their more conservative candidates than it is for our side to elect our more liberal nominees. That really complicates the aspect of the energized base dictating the nominee. The bottom line of 9% more self-identified conservatives than liberals nationally makes that a reality. In Florida that gap is 11%, with Georgia and Texas closer to 20% and above.

Safe and strategic sucks. Losing sucks worse. I don't know where we go in 2020 but we need someone who won't be rejected in ideological terms by key states like Florida.

[Legends303]

1. It looks like the more moderate candidate would have won

sigh..... disappointing

[qazplm135]

10. Nelson was more moderate, he got almost the same votes

so progressive guy lost, moderate guy lost, both got almost the exact same number of votes...so it might as simple as there are more Rs than Ds in Florida right now, and that's all there is to it.

[radical noodle]

28. Nelson is ho-hum and had been in office forever

Gillum got labeled as a "socialist" and that followed him everywhere. I'll be interested to find out how many young voters actually showed up to vote.

[qazplm135]

36. again they almost got the same number of votes

that tells me all that really mattered was D or R and there were slightly more folks favorable to the latter than the former.

[NurseJackie]

14. Very disappointing. Apparently, New England style politics doesn't suit every state.

1. It looks like the more moderate candidate would have won
sigh..... disappointing

Very disappointing. Apparently, New England style politics doesn't suit every state. It's not enough to win the primary, as a party we need to also choose candidates that are competitive statewide (or nationwide for that matter).

[George II]

44. Tammy Duckworth tried to explain that back during the state primaries....

....and got bashed and insulted for saying that.

Politics work differently in different parts of the country. We all know this.

[NurseJackie]

48. Agreed. Florida isn't a swing-state any more. It's clearly a RED state...

Politics work differently in different parts of the country. We all know this.

Agreed. Florida isn't a swing-state any more. It's clearly a RED state, and the candidates our party selects must reflect that reality. Winning the primary is only half the story, but 1/4 of the battle. Going forward, our party must be more thoughtful and strategic.

We MUST be able to put forward a candidate who can appeal to more than the extreme left of our party. Elections are ALWAYS won from the center by pulling in votes from the center-left, center-right, independents, etc.

It's important to remember that the CAMPAIGNS themselves (and other political endorsements) should also be run with the same operational and strategic awareness of what the state's demographics are. Meaning: in a RED state like Florida, it's going to be a mistake to run a candidate who has a HARD LEFT appearance.

Sadly, the tactics and issues and candidates who work well in New England, do not work well in the Deep South. Hopefully that will change soon... but for now, it's a reality that we must be willing to accept and work within. We can't let pride and vanity continue to be the cause of so many repeated political missteps.

So, as they say... "Lessons Learned". I hope our party will be able to adjust and apply these experiences in the future --- both for statewide elections and national elections as well.

[George II]

50. Conor Lamb was a perfect example a year or so ago. People were upset because he wasn't...

..."liberal" or "progressive" enough for them, even though he wasn't in THEIR district. He wound up winning his special election in the SW Pennsylvania district, and was re-elected last night. He's the type of Democrat that wins in districts like his.

Many New England or East Coast Democrats would get slaughtered in the midwest.

republicans understand this - that's why there are republican governors in MA (one of the most "liberal" states in the country) and VT. You don't hear republican voters in either of those two states saying Charlie Baker or Phil Scott aren't "pure enough" for them.

[NurseJackie]

60. Same goes for my own blue Maryland. Hogan easily won and Ben Jealous lost.

Same goes for my own blue Maryland. Hogan easily won and Ben Jealous lost.

It's unclear to me whether Bernie's presence in Maryland helped or hurt Ben Jealous. As the results (and polling data) show, Jealous had trouble getting support from center-right AND the center-left. That's how and where elections are won.

You don't hear republican voters in either of those two states saying Charlie Baker or Phil Scott aren't "pure enough" for them.

The same observation applies to Hogan. He's is a popular governor here in Maryland... he's not a Trump-humper... he's centrist... well-liked by his colleagues. And, he's not attacked by his own party members. They seem quite content and happy just to have one of "their own" in what's clearly a blue state. (I believe even a more centrist Democrat probably would have struggled against him... but we'd have definitely had a better chance in the end if we had chosen someone with a broader appeal.)

Maybe this is a "teachable moment" and we, as a party, will endeavor to make better choices going forward (ie: that we'll select candidates who have a broad appeal to ALL voters in the state, rather than to the most liberal quarters of our own party.)

I think we can do that if we set aside our pride and make an effort to look at the landscape of the state's political demographics. We need think strategically... not emotionally. Winning is the most important thing.

[R B Garr]

69. Perfectly stated. Very liberal California also retained Feinstein

after nothing more than a campaign of empty slogans and petty insults/smears about “Establishment” blah blah blah. Looks like even very liberal states reject the one-size-fits-all brands.

[workinclasszero]

51. Yeah after last night..

Florida = redstate.

Its sucks, I don't really understand it but there it is.

[JonLP24]

57. It looks like a 50-50 state to me

With Amendment 4 passing Democrats should have an edge in future elections. People are acting like he was blown out. I think the racist campaign and FBI stuff had more to do with a loss in a close race than his ideology.

[sweetloukillbot]

81. Amendment 4 could have significant reverberations going forward...

[Gothmog]

56. I was afraid that we would lose this race

I like Gillum but he appears to lost more moderate voters

[NurseJackie]

68. "Reading the room" is an important skill to have...

I like Gillum but he appears to lost more moderate voters

"Reading the room" is an important skill to have. In this case, the "room" would be the entire state of Florida... and making smarter choices on the best way to appeal to moderate voters may have made the difference. Elections are always won by appealing to (and earning the votes of) the center. As a party, we have to remember that the things that "work" during the primary don't necessarily work to attract voters on a statewide level during the General Election. Rhetoric and "celebrity appearances" and "celebrity endorsements" that get party members motivated during the primary may end up driving away the very important votes needed from the (truly) Independent voters and the center-right voters.

As a party, I hope we can set aside our pride and disappointment from this (apparent) loss and apply the lessons learned as we move forward.

[ismnotwasm]

88. This is a good observation

There is a district in my state that just turned blue. It’s been Republican since it started in 1980. The reason it was in play because one of those “retiring” Republicans—Dave Reichert put in play.

Kim Schrier, a woman, a physician and a Democrat, won against Dino Rossi—who looked like he might fit in that district despite his disgusting campaign against her. (he really is a slime)

She ran a tight campaign used Rossi’s lies against him, ran on Healthcare—according to an article I read this is why she got involved in the first place. Anyway this was the right tactic to take because she won handily.

[yardwork]

90. We need Howard Dean's 50 state strategy.

The key to success in Congress and state legislatures is to run Democrats that will win in their states. Once we have the majority, then we all can push the Democratic Party to the left.

But we have to get elected first.

[Garrett78]

2. Because they know it's socially unacceptable to say "too black."

[TDale313]

4. Bingo.

[Funtatlaguy]

6. Yep. I voted for Graham in the primary for this (sadly still) racist reason.

[qazplm135]

13. white, moderate Dem guy got almost the same vote

I'm not saying there aren't racists, but if this was about that, there'd be a significant difference in their vote totals, and there isn't.

[Garrett78]

16. Because the people who voted for 1 voted for the other. But the Republican Party exists...

...because of racism. There is no viable Republican Party absent racism.

Corey Stewart got more than 1.25 million votes (over 42%) in Virginia. And Trump is in the White House. Blatant white supremacists are able to get millions of votes in this country. In 2018.

[JonLP24]

20. +1000

[NurseJackie]

45. Possibly, but I doubt it.

Florida is no longer a swing-state. It's in the solid-red column. Going forward, our party's statewide candidates need to be selected with that demographic (and that reality) in mind. It's not enough for a candidate to be able to win a primary... they must also (eventually) be someone who can win a statewide election by drawing enough votes from the center... left-center and right-center.

Lesson learned, I hope.

[Act_of_Reparation]

65. Right...

A black candidate lost to a racist campaign in a southern state because the black candidate was too librul.

Nailed it.

[uponit7771]

53. +1

[rzemanfl]

59. Exactly. n/t

[joshcryer]

63. Yep.

[radical noodle]

75. We should not discount voters' fear of socialism

They have no idea what it really is, but it's the big, bad wolf lurking in the shadows.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

79. Yeah, that would figure. n/t

[AJT]

3. Guess you can't be "too racist" in Florida.

Decent people need to leave the place and let it sink into the rising Pacific.

[radical noodle]

30. Pacific?

And no, I'm not leaving. I came from Indiana and they're worse.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

61. Can verify about Indiana

[radical noodle]

66. In Florida at least we have

flowers year round and no ice storms. Indiana in one word=Pence.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

67. We just sent another Pence to the House too

and sent Joe Donnelly packing from the Senate. We have no elected statewide Democrats, a Republican Governor, and a Republican supermajority in the Legislature. The shroud of the darkside has been fully pulled over our state.

[radical noodle]

71. I escaped just as Pence became governor

I lived there for 65 years. It's sad to see what it's become.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

72. Very

Not as old but I remember when we had Bayh, O'Bannon, and periodic bouts of Democratic House control. The Indiana Democratic Party- aside from 2012 with Donnelly winning a Senate seat (which now seems like a lucky fluke because of the GOP candidate's rape comment)- seemed to finally completely run out of gas in 2004. Seems like we need to tear (what's left) down and completely start all over again.

[Nevernose]

7. Were Clinton and Nelson too progressive?

Not a lot of Democrats seem to be winning statewide there in recent years. At least some of the Jim Crow voting suppression will be gone in 2020, but Florida still doesn’t seem like a place easy to parse for “too liberal” or “more conservative.”

[vdogg]

8. This isn't the same across the country though.

Basically, the south is starting to look like the south again, and the Midwest is starting to look like the Midwest. We’ve had very liberal candidates win places like Kansas for example. Florida has always been close, will never be anything but close, and itwill always be about turn out. Don’t use Florida to extrapolate to the rest of the nation.

[JonLP24]

9. He did about as well as the Centrist

Why can't we embrace both wings?

[Polybius]

15. The centrist ran against a popular governor though

Much different with DeSantis.

[JonLP24]

17. He lost a close race in Florida

It happens all the time. Amendment 4 passed so that should help in future elections.

[Polybius]

19. True

But if it were Nelson vs. DeSantis, I honestly think Nelson wins easily.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. No question

DeSantis was a weak candidate and should have been defeated. This feels like an unforced error.

The DeSantis commercials basically hid Ron DeSantis. He was rarely featured and sometimes not shown at all

[In It to Win It]

34. I didn't didn't even think to check the passng of the Amendments...

Now I feel better than I did 5 minutes ago after reading the DeSantis news.

[peekaloo]

47. The Florida legislature will probably screw with that one too as they did with

the medical marijuana amendment.

Sorry my head hurts and I listened yesterday to conservatives balk about how that amendment goes too far, too "liberal", if you will.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

83. Gillum did better did better than the 2016 presidential election. How do you explain that?

[Polybius]

89. Because he was a better candidate

He ran a great campaign.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Comparisons to Nelson race are not parallel

Rick Scott really pushed up his approval ratings since 2016 while DeSantis was stuck with lower approval numbers. Gillum was running against an unknown with lower favorables while Nelson was running against a two-term governor who is slime but who bumped his numbers to considerable net positive.

Also, it is even worse than I stated in the OP. The exit poll is continually adjusted in the early hours and days to match the actual electorate. It now reports 46% saying Gillum was too liberal and only 34% indicating DeSantis is too conservative.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Our base did not show up again in a midterm. That is the most glaring finding from the Florida exit poll. The conservative liberal split is 39-22, when it was 36-25 in the 2016 presidential year.

Both Gillum and Nelson would have won amidst 36-25.

Ideology dictates outcomes. I make that point repeatedly. If you show me the conservative/liberal split I can almost draw the final score on the board for each state.

Polls are comparatively worthless

[JonLP24]

25. He lost by 1%

It isn't like he lost by 10%. It looks like 45% say his politics are just right for the state.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Florida is always 1% or thereabouts

That's why I have emphasized to laugh at Florida polls indicating a gap of 3% or above.

Those are asinine polls.

The idea in Florida is to shift that vital 1% from one side to the other. Elections are won by preference, not turnout. If we continue to ignore that we'll continue to fall short. It is always hilarious when posters here or elsewhere act like GOTV is going to save the day.

Again, I am on tilt. I knew this thread would be unpopular. But it is difficult to ignore a poll number with 46% saying our candidate was too liberal. That is 46 playing to 100. If we are playing to 200% then I'll accept 46% rejecting Andrew Gillum's ideology.

[radical noodle]

35. Some vote Democratic no matter what

as they should, and unlike those who need someone to be pure.

[JonLP24]

37. The moderates get the candidates they want

The left still vote for them. Why can't we embrace both wings? A lot of times I object to RW policy people object to that say purist but I still vote Democratic no matter what.

[radical noodle]

39. The far left doesn't always vote for moderates

but the thing is, Democrats do (for the most part) embrace all wings of the party. What we need is the Independents and for the most part, they're not on board with the socialism tag that was applied to Gillum.

[JonLP24]

40. 4% of Democrats voted for the Republicans

I am the far left I get sick of the bashing but I STILL vote Democratic.

They use the socialist tag for everyone.

[radical noodle]

42. Not really

I've seen a lot more about socialism this time around against Gillum. Thank you for always voting Democratic, and I know there are a lot more like you. I hope you understand that I was never pointing fingers at you personally.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Not valid because those are not swing states

All of those states have very high number of self-identified conservatives. The exit polls in those states tonight are all above 40% conservatives. We were kidding ourselves in those states, other than Indiana which seemed possible but simply doesn't have enough urban centers.

The key is to nominate someone who will fit the swing states in this country. I hoped Gillum fit but voters said otherwise, and against a very pathetic candidate. I'm convinced Gillum would have lost by many points against Adam Putnam, defying Florida statewide tendencies.

[superpatriotman]

12. Too liberal is code

Just like too socialist is code

[Baitball Blogger]

18. There are more than one way to skin a cat.

If the Dems really wanted to wrestle control of this state from the Republicans, they should go after the good ole boy networks that provide a subculture that conservatives don't want to lose because of the unfair advantages it gives them.

[katmondoo]

21. I guess since I am old I will most likely die under a racist, lying miserable, trumper

A total miserable asshole, I can't move so I am going to be stuck here in Florida. Depression will get me as I live through this. Could change but how the rest of the country is going I no longer think a Democrat will win Florida.

[In It to Win It]

23. DeSantis ran a "Trumpian" campaign

It wasn't subtle. DeSantis went full Trump.

I cannot accept with absolute certainty that Gillum lost because he was too liberal. Bill Nelson is not an outspoken liberal like Gillum is. Nelson is a middle of the road Democrat and he's performing the same way. I get the feeling that no matter what Democrat we ran, I think the result would have been the same.

[Polybius]

31. See post 15

n/t

[radical noodle]

38. Nelson lost for different reasons

you're comparing apples to oranges. The Nelson/Scott race was entirely different.

[jcmaine72]

32. 44% of Florida's population are racist idiots.

[In It to Win It]

33. Even though Dems will get the House, I still feel like a loser

It's bittersweet, but mostly bitter.

I live in Fort Lauderdale. For me, the feeling of losing to Ron DeSantis is greater than the joy of winning the House.

We have a 2nd Donald Trump to deal with in the state of Florida. I fear that he's going to govern in a Trump-like fashion, focusing on the base and ignoring everyone else. I give Rick Scott credit in the area that he may be a Trump fan (and still a shitty person) but he's not Trump-like.

Democrats will remain out of power for a long time in Florida as it has been for the last two decades. This is the one I actually had hope that it would change this time around. There is no hope for us on a state level.

[radical noodle]

43. I feel the same

This is a heartbreaker, but I'm going to try to look at winning back the house as a turning point. The pendulum swings.

[uponit7771]

55. +1, for non white Floridians I feel bad this morning but good for house win

[andym]

41. Big problem is the polling (showing about a 5% lead for both Gillum and Nelson)

looks like there is a high non-participation rate (or lying) by voters leaning GOP in FL.

[Blue_Tires]

46. Of course then Florida went on to approve Prop 4

So I'm trying to understand where the "too liberal" redline is...

[Funtatlaguy]

52. Prop 4 ran a great ad with a white family. There was no ad against.

You just know that this lilly White repub looking family was chosen on purpose. It worked.

[disillusioned73]

49. That's bullshit..

[Gothmog]

54. I was afraid of this

It appears that a more moderate candidate may have won this race

[JCMach1]

58. It's the racism

[David__77]

62. "Liberal" equals Black in this context.

The Bradley effect and all. Now the question is will Democrats vote against people of color to pander to white nationalists?

[MaryMagdaline]

64. No. As one who voted for and campaigned for moderates in Florida, I don't say we step back

Gillum advanced many of the liberal issues … raising minimum wage, raising teacher salaries, expansion of Medicaid and Medicare for all. Voters might have decided that he was too liberal, but no one is going to be shocked when those issues come up again. Gradually, there may be a sinking in and an adjustment and acceptance of those issues.

We need to put Medicaid on the ballot in 2020! If it passed in Utah, Nebraska, and Idaho, it sure as hell can pass in Florida.

Liberal issues, when placed on the ballot, are palatable even to conservatives. They seem to be able to vote for a liberal issue without voting for a liberal. (Economic ballot initiatives take the polarization of social issues such as abortion, guns, gay rights) out of the picture.

We also need to put minimum wage on the state and county ballots. If we can't get representation in Tallahassee or Washington for our liberal agenda, we can use the ballot referendum to set the agenda.

[R B Garr]

70. Good points.

I felt bad for Gillum that he got stuck right after his primary win explaining socialism when others weren’t burdened with that same plight.

[ananda]

73. No one can ever be too liberal for me!

Liberal means you have a heart!!!!!!!

[Sunsky]

74. Nope he is black

Too black for FL. As a black person in Florida, I now walk around wondering if all those folks smiling at me will have a stab at me as soon as I turn my back.

[unblock]

76. nearly 100% of republicans think any democrat is "too liberal"

usually without the slightest understanding of what it means to be liberal, or what policies are involved.

sometimes without even an understanding of what a "policy" is.

"too liberal" to them is just something negative to say about democrats.

[lunamagica]

77. Ads against Gillum mentioned Bernie Sanders

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

78. Too liberal in what way? That's kind of vague.

It would be good to know for future elections over there.

[Azathoth]

80. "Tool liberal" means Too black

This is one of the reasons pollsters have problems nailing down conservatives. They have been trained for decades to use coded language.

[people]

82. Gillum too liberal .. .?

What about Bill Nelson - he's certainly no out there left liberal and he lost too (despite the likely recount). The difference between the 30,000 or 40,000 more votes that Nelson got than Gillum is that Gillum is black. Democrats cannot republicanize themselves more and think that's the answer. It's not.

[In It to Win It]

84. We get punished for being too liberal but they don't get punished for being too...

conservative.

[ScratchCat]

85. I don't know about "too liberal"

But he ran on tax increases and gun control and those are losing positions with Florida overall. Bill Nelson has been around for decades and has name recognition. Couple that with his opponent being Scott, who's government cuts were seen as harming african americans, and it is no mystery why more AA's voted for Nelson than Gillum overall. Add in that Gillum has limited experience and name recognition. At the end of the day, it was easier for the Republicans to motivate the old, white, bigot base to stop the "scary dark-skinned guy who is going to raise your taxes and take your guns" than it was for Democrats to motivate people to vote for what Gillum was proposing(we aren't having a State income tax or raising taxes here - its a fringe issue with no support).

[JonLP24]

86. Wasn't it a very specific tax increase on the wealthiest of corporations?

He didn't support a state income tax.

The RW did a great job of messaging if even you didn't know he doesn't support a state income tax.

[Garrett78]

87. If you aren't a full-blown Nazi, you are too liberal to anyone inclined to vote GOP.

[Awsi Dooger]

91. I have no idea how it is not understood that even split is disaster

Everything is margin for error. You can't have as many saying your candidate is just right as saying too liberal. That is a semi-forfeit. It basically means the people who didn't vote for Gillum didn't even consider him. In that setting, nothing DeSantis says or does matters.

General elections are rigid to begin with, complete unlike primaries where Gillum rallied. Instead of everyone likeminded and considering you in a primary, perhaps 60% tops will consider you in a general election. But once 46% view you as too liberal, that 60% is shoved much lower and now your margin for error is almost non-existent.

This is a strange Florida exit poll. It has 50% of respondents preferring a Republican House to 43% a Democratic House. I did not notice that last night. I haven't seen the overall Florida House vote but it seems impossible it would hold a 7 point Republican edge. Maybe this exit poll is not a great representation of the Florida electorate. Maybe they reversed the 50 and 43 by mistake and it will be corrected later. That seems most likely.

However, while continuing to hold this exit poll at face value, the familiar problems show:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

* 71-29 deficit in rural areas

* No crossover gain whatsoever. The same 7% number of Democrats switched over to DeSantis as the 7% Republicans who voted for Gillum. I emphasized this repeatedly. It was an anecdotal ignorance parade to pretend Republicans were going to vote for our candidates

* 67% say climate change is a "serious problem." Look at that again. 67% say climate change is a serious problem. 67% of Florida voters said climate change was a serious problem. 67% indicate climate change is a serious problem.

I could keep going. I should keep going. Yesterday there was a thread here insisting that we should make cyber security a Democratic talking point, to define the party like Republicans have so many big picture issues that define their party, whether bullshit or not. I said no, it needs to be climate change.

We have next to nothing that is simple to remember and that voters associate with us. Climate change is the perfect opportunity. In looking at this poll, it seems clear that if Gillum and Nelson devote every commercial to climate change...both win. They lost narrowly and Gillum had very low margin for error but hammering climate change would almost certainly have been enough to flip .5 percent from that side to our side.