... I think the biggest of all is that the 2016 trump campaign's dog whistles and overtones of racism, violence, misogyny and hatred for all things "other" - aroused a segment of the population that had previously been mostly disengaged from politics. Many were raised anti-government, live a little on the fringe, and would never have gone to the trouble of filling out forms and standing in line for someone like "Mittens". But a liberal bashin', N***** hatin', wimmin' takin', rich tough guy like trump...? He's their kind of guy. He tells it like it is, and don't take no shit, (chew tobaccah, chewb tobaccah, chew tobaccah spit). The rural areas across the country are full of these people.
In 2016, these people had not voted in years, and many had never been registered to vote. They seethed under that black Muslim/Kenyan guy for 8 years, and blamed their increasing misery and misfortune on him and the Dems. They were ready for some hate, and wanted nothing in the world more than to poke out the eyes of the other team. Trump showed them the way to do that.
Bomber suspect Sayoc is a PERFECT example. Middle aged and never registered to vote. Hate engaged him. In September 2016 I saw news reports in Alabama about record levels of new voter registration in some of the most rural and crimson-red counties in the state. Many had increases of as much as 25 to 30% iirc. The three most conservative counties were the leaders by sizable margins. These were not young people or new voters looking forward. This was Earl, Skeeter, Dixie Lou and Harley coming in from the deep woods to vote, and they came in huge, "caravan-like" numbers. They screwed up the demographics of the conventional electorate models - to greater or lesser degrees depending upon where - in virtually every state.
They are not in numbers enough to win state-wide offices everywhere, certainly. But enough to overwhelm the rural precincts, even in very blue states. Rural always had a majority of people kin to this stereotype - from country boy conservatives to tea baggers. But now that the "redneck extremist" is added to the mix, it's like a "super majority" in those counties. And they are significantly impacting otherwise close state and National races.
And, they are STILL registered now. And they still hate "libruls". And their leader said go vote against the evil enemies of the state. So they did. Polling operations haven't yet figured this out, imo. They are using 2010 and 2014 models that are no longer accurate because the demographics shifted dramatically in one direction, and they have been slow to accommodate it.
As I said, I'm sure there are other reasons too. But I think this is big. And it will stay big as long as trump/trumpism is on the ballot.
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