We may still win the Arizona Senate race - link

[Alhena]

At least if I'm reading this article correctly:

https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/arizona-senate-results-still-counting

[berni_mccoy]

1. Yup. Says a county she's leading in still has plenty of ballots left to count and

they won't resume until Thursday.

[StevieM]

2. We will win if the remaining early vote ballots break for Sinema disproportionately

to the rest of the voting.

[Alhena]

3. Seems likely they will, especially in Pima County

[StevieM]

4. The vast majority of them are in Maricopa County. Sinema has the narrowist of leads there.

The real question is whether the early vote looks different than the rest of the vote. If it breaks for Sinema 55/45, compared to the rest of the vote being about 50/50, then she should definitely win.

[Polybius]

5. This isn't really the early vote though

This is for the people that handed in their early mail-in ballet in person yesterday, because they didn’t mail them in for whatever reason. The so-called “late early-voter”.

[StevieM]

6. But it is amazing how many of them there are. Apparently there are about 600,000 of these votes.

And there were 1.68 million or so votes counted. So that means that these outstanding votes represent 25 percent of the total.

[Polybius]

7. Yeah that's a huge number

I have no idea how those 600,000 voted.

[Quixote1818]

8. These are not rural counties correct? nt

[StevieM]

9. Pima County is D territory. Sinema is leading there by 12.4 points.

Maricopa County is the population center of Arizona. Sinema is leading there by 0.8 points.