What's going to happen in the Arizona Senate race?

[Music Man]

It's not been called officially. Apparently we're still waiting on ballots submitted on the day of. Is there really enough to change the outcome or trigger a recount? Anyone in Arizona have a feel for this and can speak to Sinema's chances?

[manor321]

1. There are many votes left

I've heard something like 500K - 600K votes remaining (I think votes by mail).

So it hasn't been called because of too many votes remaining. We can hope for the best!

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Hope History does not repeat

will ballots disappearing.

[Jersey Devil]

2. Apparently there are a lot of votes not counted yet

I have read a bunch of different stories about uncounted absentee votes in highly Dem areas that range from a few thousand to as many as several hundred thousand. I have no idea what number is accurate.

[Kali]

4. mcsally won back in 2014 with less than 200 votes

after the recount she gained like 2 votes. It would be nice to see her lose, but with so many of the uncounted votes being from Maricopa county I am not too hopeful. would LOVE to be surprised.

[stuffmatters]

5. Yes I'd sure feel more confident if the uncounted votes were in Pima County not Maricopa

Made me squirm early this morning when CNN was defining Maricopa "more democratic."

[Kali]

6. it DID go more blue but there are still way too many old white assholes up there.

just far enough from the border to retain all the fear and racism the orange anus can stir up. *they did reject arpaio recently, though so maybe things are starting to change.

[stuffmatters]

7. Thanks for the encouraging update, Kali

Yes,I kept thinking about Maricopa's autopilot reelection of Arpaio like a gazillion times in the past..

[Blue_true]

8. Sinema WON Maricopa County on Election Day by almost 1%.

My guess is the late ballots lean more heavily Dem, republicans are simply better at getting theirs in early. If Sinema repeat the ~ 1% on 500,000-600,000 votes, that adds 5,000-6,000 to her total. My guess is she does far better 15% better than McSally, if she does that, she adds 75,000-90,000 to her total. Even if she does only 5%, she adds 25,000-30,000, wiping McSally out and taking a 9,000-14,000 lead with one large (but not as large as Maricopa) even more favorable county to add to the count for her. There is a red county with fewer votes that Pima, but McSally would literally have to gain 20% percent to catch up, if the late ballots follow the party affiliation pattern of the larger counties, McSally will make up little ground there and lose.

[StevieM]

14. I think that red county is starting to come in. The race had closed to about 15,300 or so (IIRC)

but now McSally's margin is back up to just over 17,000.

Pima should get Sinema a good number of votes, but not nearly enough to give her the victory.

Most of the late votes are coming in from Maricopa County. Sinema is slightly ahead there. The question that will determine the outcome of the race is whether the late ballots do indeed lean more to the Democrats than the overall vote.

That is certainly the case nation-wide but I wonder if it works the same in Arizona, where it seems like these votes are 25 percent of the statewide vote and perhaps 35 percent in Maricopa County.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Arizona is changing and Maricopa is complicated

I haven't seen anyone with a good mathematical model of this recount. Normally they are available online, dating at least to Rossi/Gregoire in Washington 2002.

I would prefer to have the lead, and force the other side to win mail ballots significantly. Too bad it's the other way

[StarryNite]

9. 5:00 pm AZ time tomorrow

is supposedly when the next count will be announced.

[BlueintheSTL]

10. This is from a Trump guy

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

11. Impossible to predict, I think.

Well just have to wait it out.

[DesertRat]

12. Here's a good explanation of why there are still 600,000+ votes still uncounted

Facebook video from Phoenix 12 News (NBC affiliate):
https://www.facebook.com/BrahmResnik/posts/2284129398469988

Also:

Link to tweet

[VOX]

13. Thanks for posting this.

From one desert rat to another. (Palm Desert, CA).

[DesertRat]

15. You're welcome

fellow desert rat!

[Stidham8]

17. Doesn't look good

Latest projections I've seen all have McSally beating Sinema by ~8,000 votes