No Beto for 2020 😞

[In It to Win It]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/beto-go-hint-hes-not-running-2020-163312205.html?

-snip-

But at every step of the way, O’Rourke has shut down the talk, including on Monday when he once again ruled out a presidential bid in two years. “I will not be a presidential candidate in 2020,” he told reporters in Houston. “That is as definitive as it gets.”

[Jersey Devil]

1. In my book you have to win first

Beto had a heroic and highly successful campaign, even if he didn't win, but a Presidential candidate whose latest credential is losing a Senate race doesn't work for me. I love Beto and think he may be a star for Dems in the future, but not now.

[octoberlib]

3. Agree. He needs more experience.

[In It to Win It]

12. People said that same about Barack Obama...

...and we turned out fine.

TRUMP HAD NO EXPERIENCE!!!!!

[Jersey Devil]

22. but Obama was coming off a win for Senate

The optics of running a loser just do not work. I can only imagine how somebody not interested in politics like we are here at DU would react to the Democrats nominating someone who just lost their last election. Not good.

[In It to Win It]

28. In the context of my response, it was only about experience...

But I don’t think that Barack Obama coming off of a victory mattered. I didn’t vote for him because he won in a previous election. It didn’t even factor into my decision. I’m sure it didn’t factor into anyone’s decision.

They can criticize and run ads that he didn’t win in his state... and yet, Trump lost his home state.

He has that “Obama factor” (for lack of better words).

For god sake, the other side ran Ben Carson and Donald Trump. Two people with not an ounce of political experience.

[EffieBlack]

88. If Barack Obama had lost his Senate race and then ran for president,

he would have been laughed out of the primaries.

But then again, he's black, so...

[In It to Win It]

92. Is it apples and oranges to make the comparison of...

To Hillary Clinton losing in 2008 and then running again? As opposed to if Barack Obama had lost his Senate bid?

I’m just thinking that all bets are off the table and why are we still being conservative about who we want to be the Dem nominee? Trump broke every single norm. He wasn’t laughed out of the primaries having no political or military experience.

My whole point is... with regard to Beto, he lost a bid for the Senate in a red state but that should not be a deterrent for us. He’s still a phenomenal candidate with enough national appeal to win. He raised more money than any other candidate without really trying. I think we would be fools not to consider him as 2020 potential just because he lost a Senate bid.

[EffieBlack]

95. I think it is apples and oranges to compare coming in second in presidential

to not winning a statewide race in your own home state. if Hillary had lost the New York Senate race, she would never ever taken seriously as a presidential candidate.

Regarding Beto, I like him a lot, but I think he needs to do a lot more to demonstrate he has the chops for a nationwide presidential run and to be president of the United States than a brief stint as a congressman and a close but no cigar senate race.

[In It to Win It]

97. With regard to the brief stint...

Did we not throw out our “brief stint” excuse considering the 2008 party nominee Obama had only served 3 years as a Senator? No?

[emulatorloo]

101. Obama was a US Senator. Hillary was a US Senator. Beto is not a US Senator

At least not yet. I hope he takes on Cornyn in 2020!

[treestar]

42. What optics

He is not a loser. It was Texas. That's the only reason he lost.

[Baconator]

59. He still lost...

He's not a winner*

He's an electoral loser who did better than anyone before him but that's a bit of a mouthful.

[treestar]

63. So no one from a red state can be President no matter what

No Democrat at least.

That's not necessary.

[Crunchy Frog]

85. Only if there are no Democrats who ever win elected offices in red states.

At this time, that does not appear to be the case.

[TexasBushwhacker]

25. Obama had been elected to the Senate

Beto has only been elected to his congressional district. Other than Eisenhower, our Presidents have been elected by their state as a Senator or Governor. There's a first time for everything, but I'm okay with Beto saying "No" to running for President at this time.

I don't use Trump as an example because I don't want the Democrats to run someone so inexperienced.

[In It to Win It]

37. I don't think that a Senate win had any bearing on him being elected president.

I’m sure it gave him the confidence boost to run for President but other than that... difficult to say.

[EffieBlack]

89. It had everything to do with it

[In It to Win It]

93. I disagree. I don't having only 2 years in the Senate "had everything" to do with him winning

[EffieBlack]

96. You think he he would have been elected president had he run as a state senator from Illinois?

And he had four years in the Senate, BTW

[In It to Win It]

98. Yes and thanks for the correction.

...because he had that “something”; because he changed peoples perceptions of what a presidential is and what their “qualifications” (whatever you define that as) are.

I will make the distinction between making it through the primaries and being elected President after only being a state senator.

Assuming he had made it through the primaries after being a state senator, I absolutely think he would have been elected.

I think the primaries would have been more of an uphill battle but I think he could have gotten through that as well.

[EffieBlack]

104. You really believe that a black state senator named Barack Obama would have

won enough primaries to win the nomination and then been elected president?

Ok

[In It to Win It]

100. Just remembered that...

I said 2 years because I was calculating from the time he started as a US senator to the point where he announced his run for President, which is the point where people start considering qualifications.

At the point where his campaign, he had only been a US Senator for two years.

[treestar]

64. It is whether they can be elected or not

Is all that matters. And Beto would understand the job.

[JonLP24]

66. He is a congressman

I know that may not be good enough experience for a lot of people but it is for me. What is important is willingness to stand up for CJ reform we need more of that taking stands on important issues and not scared to do it in a red state.

[GWC58]

77. When's the other TX Sen up for

re-election? Might beat that old geezer, ya think? 🤔

[W_HAMILTON]

7. Coming within 3% of being the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in however many years..

...combined with his charm and charisma, likeable demeanor, his politics, his ability to fundraise, and -- most importantly -- his ability to ORGANIZE and GOTV, he most CERTAINLY is more than capable of being a very strong presidential candidate as is. And he has already won elections before, as a congressional representative.

In fact, he would almost certainly be my choice in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

[superpatriotman]

8. Great

A position at the DNC or DCCC perhaps. He does get people motivated

[W_HAMILTON]

13. If he can get within 3% in Texas...

...you don't think he can win in Pennsylvania? Michigan? Wisconsin? All the other traditionally blue states? Because that's all it would take to win back the presidency. He's just as Obama as Obama was pre-2008, except that Beto lost in a deep red state rather than won in a deep blue state.

[crazycatlady]

55. Texas Democratic Party

They need him more than the national party does.

[Jersey Devil]

11. He's still too green for me, example: dropping the f bomb in his concession speech

Not really a big deal but an obvious rookie mistake.

[In It to Win It]

19. A single F-bomb? Compared to the fuckery we get from Trump?

[CTyankee]

54. Yep, he did that. I noticed. But it was a rookie mistake. He'll learn. I like him.

[Jersey Devil]

57. I like him too, a lot. But I still think he is too green

Let him get a little seasoning first.

[CTyankee]

108. I agree. He needs a little seasoning. That is why I am supporting my young Senator,

Chris Murphy, for VP candidate (along with Kamala Harris) on the 2020 ticket. A CA/CT ticket sounds good to me...half west coast, half east coast.

And they are both great candidates!

[treestar]

65. Joe Biden did that

And this society is very crude to start with.

I'd rather someone who used the F word and had a brain than someone who does not but has no brain.

[ananda]

43. I'd vote for Beto in a heartbeat!

..

[onetexan]

53. Me3

Thar 3x over

[Le Gaucher]

56. He should run for Governor of TX

[In It to Win It]

60. I don't believe he will win any other Texas state race.

I doubt he will face anyone else that's as unlikable and unpopular as Ted Cruz.

I think he will lose for the same reasons he lost to Ted Cruz. He ran a great campaign, a phenomenal campaign. Turnout was up. He actually gave a republican a run for their money (which is significant and should not be discounted under any circumstances), which I thought should have been a blowout from Ted Cruz.

It's just the demographics of the state is not in his favor. Conservatives outnumber Democrats by A LOT and I don't think that will change in the near-future. That's one of the reasons I think his stage is on the national level.

I believe he has far better of a chance of winning on a national level than at the statewide level in Texas.

[In It to Win It]

10. If Barack Obama thought that way when he made his first run for Congress - AND LOST

He would have never become President.

I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think Beto O’Rourke will be more popular than he is RIGHT NOW!

People told Barack Obama it was “too early” for him to run for President. Always go with “too early.”

[UniteFightBack]

20. Lincoln ran for Senate twice and lost ...then became President. John Meacham was firing off a

bunch of examples of that type of thing this morning. Anyway Biden/Beto 2020 that's a good compromise.

[Bradshaw3]

23. George HW Bush lost a Texas senate election

And became President. He was vice-president but he was selected for that post after losing in the presidential primaries. What we need in a candidate is someone who is inspirational. Beto is smart enough to be a bood presdient and inspirational enough to get elected.

[lapfog_1]

102. this... however, HW Bush was VP candidate to "charismatic" Reagan

so... if we run someone LIKE Obama for President in 2020, I think Beto would be a great VP... and then in 2028, Beto can run for the top spot.

[Bradshaw3]

105. Trouble is, Beto is the Obama of now

He is the charismatic one and the rules have changed as far as experience. Does anyone here think Beto couldn't handle the job after what we've seen the last couple of years?

[sabbat hunter]

107. Lincoln

lost his senate race, had only served in the Illinois legislature. I think he could have a shot at it if he chose to run.

[tanyev]

2. Ah, but Cornyn's seat is up for reelection in 2020.

[NewJeffCT]

5. That would be nice

as well. Use some of that leftover money.

[Alhena]

15. Cornyn isn't as unlikeable as Cruz though

[Cha]

18. Still.. things could change drastically

with the fascist still in power by then.

[TexasBushwhacker]

27. True, but he is older. He'll be 68 in 2020

I wouldn't be surprised if Cornyn decided to cash out and be a lobbyist rather than run in 2020.

[Pope George Ringo II]

30. This is probably the pivotal difference.

Cornyn gives conservatives what they want without just egregiously rubbing their faces in the sort of a failed human being they're voting for.

Not to say any of us love Cornyn, but the bottom line is that he doesn't have nearly the flashing neon "jerk" sign over his head that Cruz does.

[In It to Win It]

49. with that neon "punch me in the face" sign to match

[fishwax]

76. Cornyn's approval ratings are lower than Cruz's

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/12/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators/

Cornyn's approval rating was at 39% this past October, and that's the highest it's been in several cycles.

[LeftInTX]

80. It's one of those weird things

Cornyn isn't as unlikeable as Cruz, but he can't fire up the base.

Cornyn is actually likeable in a few circles.
He donates to low cost community health clinics etc.
He also has good constituent services and actually helped my son when he was in a rough spot.

Nevertheless, he talks through both sides of his mouth and is a Trump enabler.


Yet, he can't fire up the base the way that Cruz does.

I wouldn't be surprised if he retires and becomes a lobbyist in 2020

[blogslut]

24. I think Joaquin Castro has expressed an interest in running against Cornyn

[oasis]

44. A primary battle between Beto and Joaquin, a good thing.

Media is sure to cover it closely, raising the profile of each candidate.

[blogslut]

45. I would be suprised if they ran against each other

Also a little sad.

[fishwax]

78. Joaquin was thinking of running in a special election. But he'll likely be in leadership now.

There was talk last year that Cornyn might get the FBI job, which would have resulted in a governor's appointment followed by a special election. That would have meant that Castro would have been able to run for the Senate seat without giving up his day job in the House, which would have been great.

But I've got to think that the takeover of the house changes the calculus for him. To run for the Senate in 2020 he would have to give up his house seat, and with the democrats in charge now he's going to have a shot at getting some power in the house. It'll be a lot to give up for a chance at a senate seat.

[comradebillyboy]

4. Good for Beto. He can't credibly run for president if he

can't carry his own home state. Hope he runs for Cornyn's seat in 2020 or some other high profile office in Texas. If he can win a statewide race then he deserves to be considered.

[treestar]

9. The Orange Bloviator did not carry his own home state

Nor did he ever occupy any elected office from it!

[In It to Win It]

17. Trump lost his home state and had no experience.

Barack Obama wasn’t that experience compared to the people he beat (Clinton, McCain, Romney)...

Not carrying his home state is not an excuse.

[TexasBushwhacker]

40. Trump had Russia working on his behalf n/t

[jcgoldie]

71. That's a bullshit argument

He turned out a ton of unlikely voters to come within a hair of turning deep red Texas blue. WTF does winning your home state have to do with anything?

[Alhena]

6. Crap, expect the nominee will want him as VP tho.

[llmart]

21. I'd love to see Kamala Harris/Beto.

[In It to Win It]

32. I'd love to see that

[Celerity]

34. Yes. Far more than Biden/Beto.

[JonLP24]

67. Yes

Especially as far as enthusiasm goes.

[eleny]

14. Maybe he'll consider running against Cornyn in 2020

[krawhitham]

29. Texas does not hate Cornyn like they do Cruz

[eleny]

33. Yeah, there's that

But Cornyn has stood with Trump on issues that hurt everyone. I'm hoping there's some place for O'R very soon.

[babylonsister]

46. They hate Cruz? Really?

Somebody voted for him.

It's probably that (r) that convinces them.

[In It to Win It]

62. In Texas (and probably any other red state)...

being a Democrat is worse than... being Ted Cruz.

Jesus Christ himself probably couldn't win in Texas as a Democrat but he'd come just as close as Beto did.

[fishwax]

79. they don't like him as much as they like Cruz either

Cornyn's approval ratings are below Cruz's, and I think they always have been. Cruz has been more polarizing because of his high profile (and because he's basically a despicable POS, but that doesn't necessarily work against him amongst conservatives). But he's also been popular. His approval ratings were in the high 40s going into the election. Cornyn's hover in the 30s.

Here's a site where you can compare Cruz's approval ratings and Cornyn's.

[UniteFightBack]

16. I agree. He should not be the Presidential candidate. He should be Vice Pres. BIDEN/BETO 2020!

[Celerity]

38. Harris/Beto is better. 2 white males, with the top of the ticket being 86

in his last year of a double term is not going to work so well. We need to have a somewhat inclusive ticket IMHO.

[krawhitham]

26. he'll be on ticket as VP

[BannonsLiver]

31. A few things

- What would anyone expect him to say given the circumstances? He was in a hotly contested senate race.

- Some of the responses here are completely ludicrous. Abraham Lincoln lost his first senate bid and was elected president two years later. Richard Nixon lost the presidency in 1960 AND his subsequent run for governor of CA before winnning in 1968. Learn some history, folks.

- The orange game show host in the WH shattered all the old paradigms forever.

- If there are people here who don’t understand how formidable Beto would be in a national primary they’ve been asleep for the last 18 months. I live far from Texas and would have loved to have voted for him last night. I sent him multiple contributions. Do people actually believe all of the $70 million he raised came completely from Texans? Get real. He already HAS a national following. Is it enough? Who knows. But there’s no rational case to be made that he wouldn’t be in the top tier of candidates instantly.

- I have no idea if he will run. What he said before the election means almost nothing given the timing. He may conclude that it’s too much too soon for his family. But the silly reasons listed by some here (the “F bomb”? Are you fucking kidding me?) likely won’t be a factor in whatever he may decide.

[In It to Win It]

35. A few things...

1) absolutely understandable.

2, 3, 4, 5) I AGREE WHOLEHEARTEDLY! We’re shattering norms and precedent all over the place. Why should we care about norms and precedent now???

[LeftInTX]

81. Abraham Lincoln was a long time ago

Mass media was pretty limited back then. I always wondered what the media's roll was back then. Sure people could print flyers and post them and newpapers could write editorials etc, but I don't know about, "On the campaign trail today Lincoln said, "xxxyyy"

I heard that Lincoln kept a list of supporters and those contacts were crucial to his victory in 1860.

Nixon was VP. He lost, but he auditioned for the job again in 1968.

Beto had national support because Cruz is a national punching bag. If Beto had been running against someone like Susan Collins, I don't know if he would have caught the national attention. (He probably could have won in Maine)

[BannonsLiver]

86. Look

Either he’s going to run or he’s not. If he’s such a terrible presidential candidate I’m sure whichever candidate you eventually choose will have no trouble beating him. So relax, FFS.

[blogslut]

36. I don't think some people grasp just what Beto did.

Texas is 800 miles long and 800 miles wide. Almost two years ago this amazing man got in a car and began driving town to town, top to bottom and all points in between, repeatedly. He didn't stop until yesterday.

He went above and beyond any public servant I've ever seen.

Give the man a rest for now. He fucking earned it.

[TexasBushwhacker]

70. Yup, and as of January, he's unemployed

Time to secure a good book deal, if he hasn't already. Actually, he already co-wrote one on the "War On Drugs" and how it doesn't work.

https://www.amazon.com/Dealing-Death-Drugs-Business-Checkpoint-ebook/dp/B00699SBRA/ref=mp_s_a_1_10?ie=UTF8&qid=1541689432&sr=8-10&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&keywords=beto+o%27rourke

[Denis 11]

39. I would vote for Beto (I am in CT)

In 2020 we should think outside the box, trumpfuxxery is evidence of a paradigm shift in American politics. Beto would carry Texas running for president and compete strongly in the purple states and of course the states that despise Trump.

[nevergiveup]

41. The nomination will be his if he wants it. IMHO

He really is that good....and he is progressive.

[EffieBlack]

91. No

I thought we didn't do coronations ...

Running a strong but losing race is not, in and of itself, a qualification to be the party's nominee.

[In It to Win It]

94. One lost race should not be a deterrent.

What is the qualification to be the party’s nominee?

I sure remember when people thought Obama didn’t have the qualifications to be the party’s nominee. Sure, Obama won his senate race. But in all seriousness, he was not that experienced. He was only in the Senate for 2 years. I remember when many people thought he was too inexperienced to run.

Obama made us think differently about what it means to be a good presidential candidate, and I think Beto can do the same.

[EffieBlack]

103. Who said it's a deterrent?

But it certainly doesn't make him the front-runner and sure thing for 2020. Folks need to slow their roll.

[In It to Win It]

106. Your point is that the lost is a deterrent for 2020. Am I incorrect?

Last edited Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:12 PM - Edit history (1)

I think the comparison between Beto and Barack goes hand-in-hand. People are saying that Beto needs to wait and climb the "political ladder"; gain more experience; be a VP and then run for President. People said the same about Obama; that Obama should finish his Senate term and then run; it shouldn't be Obama, it has to be someone with more experience.

When it comes to running for President, I believe that running "too early" is a much safer bet than waiting. If you wait, "the next round" may literally be too late. In 2016, I thought Hillary already had her shot at the Presidency and it shouldn't have been her. She lost in 2008. The party choose another person. I thought it was Joe Biden's chance in 2016. Who better than to pass the torch to than Joe Biden? Joe Biden decided not to run.

Now, I think it would be too late for Joe Biden to run in 2020 because the political landscape has changed since such a short time. I think it needs to be someone else, like Kamala Harris or Beto O'Rourke despite their combined lack of experience.

But all in all, my original point is that he should not be counted out as a potential 2020 front-runner. Losing a senate bid is not a 2020 deterrent. TBH, as much I wanted Beto to win, I still expected Ted Cruz to win. As popular as Beto was in Texas, he was trailing Ted Cruz the entire time.

I guess we will agree to disagree on the Beto 2020 point.

[JCMach1]

47. Lot of water between now and decision time

[dameatball]

52. My thoughts exactly.

[Cetacea]

48. Trump changed the prerequisites for Presidency eom

[In It to Win It]

51. I agree. Fuck playing by these make-believe rules

[Pisces]

50. Maybe VP

[Wintryjade]

58. But VP would be much more doable. Harris/Beto 2020

[In It to Win It]

61. I won't be mad at that ticket. I WILL TAKE IT!

[fishwax]

68. Good. I'd rather see him keep building in Texas.

[In It to Win It]

69. He can accomplish that with a Presidential run.

He won’t win a statewide race in Texas. He won’t face anyone else that’s as unlikable and unpopular as Ted Cruz.

[fishwax]

75. A presidential run will take him outside of texas for a huge chunk of the next two years

I don't see that as the best way to build on the momentum he's created.

He got almost as many votes in a midterm election as Cornyn got in his most successful presidential election cycle. Cornyn has never had a serious challenger (at either the primary or the general election phase), so he's always cruised to victory.

But I'm not sure where people are getting the impression that he's any more likeable or any more popular than Cruz was. A poll earlier this year had Cruz with a higher approval rating (49) than Cornyn (43). (Cruz's disapproval numbers were also slightly higher, though, while there was a lot more "no opinion" on Cornyn.)

Comparing their October numbers at the Texas Politics Project we can see that Cruz was actually much more popular (though also, expectedly given his national profile and the upcoming election, more polarizing) than Cornyn:

Cruz -- 34% approve strongly, 13% spprove somewhat, 5% disapprove somewhat, 37% disapprove strongly

Cornyn -- 17% approve strongly, 22% approve somewhat, 9% disapprove somewhat, 25% disapprove strongly

Cornyn's numbers will likely become even more polarizing if he faces a competitive election.

[LeftInTX]

83. Besides the "Big John" commercial, I've never seen Cornyn campaign - LOL

I think he was Texas AG.
I've seen him debate Chuck Schumer 1:1 in the senate and he's a bit of a stiff.
It was a late night thing.
I think both of them were having fun, but Schumer was winning the debate.

[ecstatic]

72. They were playing attack ads against Beto...in Atlanta, GA

Before the election. Apparently the GOP is anticipating a pivot to 2020?

As far as him running/not running, I like the guy. I loved his no bullshit responses to questions surrounding the NFL, impeachment, and other trump hand picked NONtroversies.

I think Beto should run, but he should lay low for now. Anyone in the spotlight now will take the brunt of GOP/Russian attacks.

[StuckInTexas]

73. We can not afford to waste Beto

On going after our version of Ahab's white whale. Yes demographics are changing, but what is not being reported on as much is white people in Texas are becoming more radicalized. Cruz won 71% of white males and 60% of white females. The rhetoric I hear at my place of employment on a daily basis is more akin to stormfront than even fox news. The white blue collar texans will make sure Texas stays red another generation.

What is being misunderstood is that Beto didnt get that close because Texas is about to shift, he got that close because he was that phenomenal of a candidate. We here at DU so often have no real grasp of what really matters in an election. We're all extremely active, involved and as a result more policy driven. The general populace is too uneducated and frankly, doesn't give a shit about anything other than 1 or 2 issues and the topic dejeur. What the general electorate responds too, especially our base is charisma and inspiration. Beto is quite honestly the best we've had at that since Obama.

Yes, Russia interfered in 2016, yes there was voter suppression, yes their were all sorts of dirty tricks our candidate had to endure for the last 25 years. But all of that would've been overcome with charisma. At the very least, I think whoever wins our nomination needs to draft Beto as the VP pick. We're in a very real war with a wannabe American Reich. Now is the time we use our absolute best weapons and I think Beto has a huge role to play in 2020

[In It to Win It]

82. Agreed! Honestly, I believe he'll be wasting his time in Texas...

...if he plans to run another statewide race. I think this years race was the closest he will ever come to winning a statewide race in Texas.

Beto has that “something” that appeals to a national audience and he has gained a national audience.

I honestly believe that if Beto wants the 2020 nomination, it’s his.

[SweetieD]

74. Vice president maybe.

[book_worm]

84. Doesn't rule him out for VP, though

His congressional experience is more than Trump has had.

[Gothmog]

87. That only applied if he won the Senate seat in 2018

We will be seeing Beto again

[Alhena]

90. I expect after several months of kicking around El Paso he'll get the itch again

[LisaL]

99. The guy lost his race.

Usually not a good sign for someone to run for president if they couldn't win in their own state.