PPP: Romney ahead by 1-point among likely voters in Wisconsin

[WI_DEM]

PPP's first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.

The biggest change Ryan's selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney's gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There's also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that's down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.

Ryan isn't exactly a universally popular figure in his home state. 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. But that does give him the best numbers of anybody on either ticket in the state. Obama has a 46% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him, Romney has a 45/48 favorability rating, and Joe Biden stands at 41/48.

A big reason Wisconsin remains so competitive for the GOP is that the electorate looks like it will be considerably more Republican leaning than it was in 2008, reflecting the continued high energy level of the party's voters after its victory in June's recall election. We find an electorate that's 34% Republican and 32% Democratic. Exit polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a 6 point turnout advantage, 39% to 33%. Although the enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats nationally in 2010 has dissipated some places, it appears to still be a real issue for them in Wisconsin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

I just got an e-mail that Michelle Obama will be coming to Wisconsin on Thursday--to Milwaukee. If we see the Obama campaign begin to spend money and time here then we can assume that it is tight.

[Zoeisright]

1. Apparently the question should now be:

What's the matter with Wisconsin?

[WI_DEM]

2. What's the matter with a number of states that are flirting with Romney?

It's the economy!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

3. Which is solidly the Republicans fault.

Congress has done everything in it's power to keep any possible growth suppressed.

[WI_DEM]

5. We know it, but there are many people who will take it out on the incumbent

that is how it usually plays out in elections. Obama is very lucky that he has such an unlikable opponent.

[nc4bo]

4. Maybe just an isolated incident but

one of my FB friends who moved from NC to Wis. just ranted that she'd just been denied, for a 2nd time, spine surgery by BCBS and how she's so sick of politics and it's all the fault of Obamacare, etc. How BCBS is keeping her in a gerbil wheel with meds, physical therapy, meds, physical therapy, yada.

She's in pain. Doctor told her surgery was needed. She's being denied. I know her personally and is a good person. She probably voted for the white men running in last election.

I told her this is why so many people were fighting for Universal Healthcare and how Obamacare wasn't what most of us wanted, even though it benefited several million people, it was still more healthinsurance reform than heath care reform.

Well she's not having any of that so I told her I'd see what I could dig up for her - even though she probably won't be giving me the specifics of her case.

Not sure how many people have been experiencing difficulties with their insurers and not sure how many insurers are weaseling out of covering difficult treatment for their patience or how many are putting profit over care.

Lots of people want to blame the symptom and not the cause of the disease.

What can we do?

[maxsolomon]

26. how is it the fault of Obamacare

if BCBS is the one denying coverage for the surgery?

despite being a good person, she's unwilling to think things through. which is the problem with most americans - they just don't want to think.

[nc4bo]

29. I just talked to her some more...

I think she was just generally lashing out. Pain does that. Like I said, she's not one of those nasty as fluck Republicans.

I told her the problem is with BCBS. Googled them and there are a ton of similar complaints. She also said her HC providers are insinuating that they are waiting for Obamacare to take full effect before they.......geez I don't know, go forward with more treatments and testing.

sigh.........I found some links from an ADR Support Forum post regarding fighting your insurance company after denial of service determinations and told her if there was anything else I can do, let me know.

[maxsolomon]

31. well, as long as she doesn't generally lash out

in the voting booth.

[WI_DEM]

6. Wisconsin is more than Milwaukee and Madison...

if all we needed to do was win there big then Barrett would have won a big victory in the recall election. Waukesha county is solidly GOP and has almost as many voters as Dane County (Madison) and then rural areas with all the hunters who think Dems will take their guns away. There is plenty of stupid here, too. Remember, too, that Gore and Kerry won only narrowly. Prior to 1992, WI was a pretty solid state for the GOP in presidential elections. It didn't vote for Humphrey in '68 or JFK in '60. Was solidly for Ike, FDR lost it once or twice in his two runs.

[woolldog]

7. This is stunning.

If Obama has to defend WI, we're in serious trouble.

[WI_DEM]

8. Stunning? it's expected. WI is not a solid blue state and never has been.

Romney has a VP nominee from WI and that helps him, obviously. Still, I'm surprised it's as close as it is. It's really not a lead at 1-point because it's within the margin of error. But yes, I think that Obama is going to have to spend time and money here. 2012 is not 2008, Obama is the incumbent and he is runnning with an economy (no matter that the GOP sabatoged it) that is producing a weak recovery.

[woolldog]

11. I'm stunned.

Obama was at 50 in the last poll and I distinctly remember the Walker recall exit polls where 54% of the voters said they were going to vote for Obama (including many who were voting for Walker). I never considered WI a tossup.

Still possible to win w/o WI though, but this is extremely troubling, especially considering the GOP ticket will be getting a convention bounce as well. If Romney's running ahead in WI, he's likely close or on top in Ohio and Iowa as well.

[WI_DEM]

12. Well, don't count Wisconsin out yet. Obama could still win there. This poll is basically a toss-up

and with a VP from the state that is not encouraging for the GOP either. Interestingly Obama has managed to do well in Ohio polls all year, but Iowa is definitely a toss-up in most polls already, however, the Ryan budget is tough on wind power which is a major industry in Iowa.

[ProSense]

9. PPP is a good poll, but

why is this sample skewed senior?

18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 46%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

That's 66 perent over age 46.

Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 34%
Independent/Other.......................................... 34%


Then again, the last poll was...

18 to 29........................................................... 10%
30 to 45........................................................... 28%
46 to 65........................................................... 42%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Democrat ........................................................ 33%
Republican...................................................... 31%
Independent/Other.......................................... 36%

Did Wisconsin voters age since the 2008 election?

The exit polls (CNN or NYT) showed a split about 51/49 percent under 45/over 45. Of that, only 14 percent were over 65. Here it's 20 percent.

This is definitely a Ryan bounce, but the age skew is significant.

[WI_DEM]

10. probably because younger voters especially 18-29 are not enthused about voting this time...

that is going to be a big problem for us nationally. And as the article from PPP says the 2012 electorate in WI is more like 2010 than 2008 in its make-up (unlike some other states). The GOP is more excited about voting this time because of their success in the recall and now with having Ryan on the ticket.

[ProSense]

13. Or it could reflect

the fact that there were no cell phones called.

"probably because younger voters especially 18-29 are not enthused about voting this time..."

A 17 percent difference, across voters 18 to 44, cannot be explained by less enthusiasm.

[WI_DEM]

14. that could be, too.

[woolldog]

16. Why do you only nitpick polls that give you results you don't like?

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Why do you only celebrate polls with the result you want (Obama losing)

[ProSense]

20. Facts disrupting the doomsday scenario? n/t

[woolldog]

22. I see right wingers do the same thing you're doing when they get polls they don't

like, ie showing Obama ahead.

They do the exact same thing; they look at the internals and then complain that not enough Republicans were polled, too much of a Dem advantage. You're no different. These aren't facts.

I say the same thing to them, you either believe in random sampling or you don't. If you don't then just ignore the polls.

[ProSense]

23. Stop projecting.

See, these are facts: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1172933

If you want to dispute the numbers, do so, but they (the exit polls and the current PPP polls) are real.

[woolldog]

24. There's nothing to dispute.

They take a random sample and those are the results. Deal with it.

[ProSense]

25. May

"They take a random sample and those are the results. Deal with it."

...I suggest you take your own advice?

The poll is skewed seniors, and likely not reflective of what will happen at the polls in November. "Deal with it."

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

33. Are you serious?

People post all sorts of good signs for Obama and YOU TOTALLY IGNORE THEM!!!!!

[WI_DEM]

15. On the other hand, PPP has a new national poll out showing Obama leading by 4-points

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/8/16

[LynneSin]

17. I wouldn't freak out about any poll until after the conventions

I think the day that Paul Ryan was announced as VP I started a thread saying that there would be bumps in the polls for Romney/Ryan up until the Democratic Convention.

Since we're the incumbents we have 'home field advantage' by having our convention last. If we have a strong message that reaches out to the middle class and reminds everyone that the GOP does not include minorities, LGBT or women then polls will swing back wide for the democrats.

[WI_DEM]

19. Correct, after both conventions--there will be instant polls taken after GOP convention which will

show Romney in the lead and people around here will go nuts, but that happens. Then our convention comes just a few days later.

[berni_mccoy]

21. It's the Big Bad Threat of SOCIALISM and WELFARE

Heard this on NPR this morning. They interviewed voter after voter and all of them were saying they thought the government was doing too much and getting too involved in their lives.

It's ironic really.

One of the voters was a Farmer who is actively getting farm subsidies from the Federal Government. The interviewer asked him if he didn't think that was ironic or hypocritical. The farmer said no, his *entire* income wasn't from the government, so it was ok.

I thought to myself, I wonder if his farming would be possible without the subsidies.

[maxsolomon]

28. That report had me shouting at the radio

I had to turn it off, the ignorance was so thick. It made me despair for the future of this nation.

[mfcorey1]

27. El toro poo poo! nt

[vaberella]

30. Wisconsin you are fast moving onto my SHIT States of America list! n/t

[RagAss]

32. Must be sad to see your state bought by the Koch brothers....

Kochconsin !...get used to it.