Ok let's have an open and honest talk about Polls

[LynneSin]

Some folks here look like they are reading to drop off a cliff over panic in some of the polls today in Missouri and Wisconsin.

Honestly, this has been like the 82 trillionist election I've followed and I find myself a bit of a poll junky and I've learned alot over the years. In fact I suspect many of you are like me and might even have better insight to add.

But we need to talk about this because honestly, panicking is not a noble progressive quality.

First we're entering the convention cycle of the election year. Since Obama is in the White House the democrats are the incumbent party and get to host their convention second. (If Obama wins this election then 2016 we still go second since the dems would be the incumbent party).

Right before the first convention is when you'll start seeing a bounce for that party. This is the challenger party, they are the 'new ideas' to counter the current ideas and it's at this time they announce the VP choice. Because of this Romney is enjoying a bit of an upswing in the polls. Same thing happened with Obama right before his convention and he announced Biden.

What happened in 2008 is that McCain made several mistakes that hurt his chances greatly. He grossly overestimated the power of the so-called PUMAs that were to spoil Obama's convention (the 'Party Unity My Ass' supporters of Hillary Clinton) and picked a woman hoping to lure those voters to his side. Thing is Obama had a kick ass convention, Hillary came out swinging 100% for Obama and Obama hit a grand slam homerun at the 2008 convention. McCain's convention came out weaker, Sarah Palin was a poor choice for a candidate and he lost any of that momentum you're suppose to get being the second convention heading into the home stretch of election season.

So right now Romney is where Obama was in 2008. He's enjoy the spotlight, Ryan seems to appease some of the Tea Party supporters and he's getting a bit of a bump in the polls. But with the Akin mess hanging over his head, the tax issues stance and the fact that Romney has alienated every group out there outside Wealthy White Land Owners, it's gonna be tough for Romney to hit a grand slam like Obama did in 2008. Sure Romney will score a few runs but if Obama has even 50% of the convention rah-rah like he had in 2008 that bump that Romney will see after his convention will be gone in a week or so.

As for the polls. You can't live and die by those. People saw the Missouri poll and expected Claire McCaskill ahead by like 93.5% to 6.5%. That's not going to happen overnight. Akin shot himself in the foot and the people of Missouri are only starting to get an idea of just how wretched this guy is. IF Akin stays in the campaign he is going to be hit hard with money from both the DNC and groups like Emily's List that will bring home the fact that Akin really hates women and thinks rape isn't such a bad thing. The fact that McCaskill went up 5% after 3-4 days of this scandal (It started over the weekend so Monday was the first day of polling) means that this threat is going to stick. Trust me the GOP saw that 5pt bump for McCaskill and they know it's only going to get worse in Missouri. Why else is EVERYONE telling him to drop and the RNC/RNSC are pulling their money from Missouri. It's not today's poll that worries them - it's the long term affect that this scandal will have on a swing state that not only do they need to win the Senate but to win the Presidency.

And remember there are big issues with polls. There is a large percentage of this population that live by cell phone only and those people are not covered in many polls. This is going to impact the numbers for young people who tend to be the ones that skip landlines for cellular.

So please, do not panic these next couple of weeks and remember, if Obama is still ahead in electoral votes after the RNC convention it's going to take the mother of all scandals for him to lose this race and after 6 years of campaigning and being president - I think we know all the skeletons in Obama's closet and none of them are scary.

I would love for others to give some feedback on their thoughts!

[reflection]

1. Thanks for your insight.

Definitely needed some recalibration today. Was going a bit wobbly.

[gademocrat7]

2. Thanks, Lynn.

[Kalidurga]

3. I just look at the electoral map and things look much better.

Obama is set to win every state he won in 2008. Some of those are technically swing states, but I believe he will win those states. He might pick up a few more states now, since the GOP has really hit home that there really is a war on women.

[gabeana]

4. great post

I totally agree with it

didn't McCain after his convention move ahead of Obama in the polls for a short time?

I remember the media loved palin immediately after the convention till she showed her stupidity

[Dawgs]

10. McCain got a huge bump with the Palin pick. He was down by 7+ points before going up by 3+.

It only lasted a week, but it was much larger than anything Romney is seeing these days.

[LynneSin]

12. he got a weak bump after the convention

but it wasn't strong enough to hold off the disaster that was about to happen between Palin and her interviewing skills and McCain deciding to 'suspend' the campaign to solve the Banking crisis (he did it right before a debate which made him look scared shitless).

I think the one thing that did McCain's campaign in the most was this photo:



This photo went viral and it made McCain look like a doofus. It was his Michael Dukakis momment.

[Lebam in LA]

5. Thank you!

I needed that reminder

[rocktivity]

6. "Get thee beyond me, polls!"

"Unclean! UNCLEAN!!!"




rocktivity

[Jessy169]

7. Du'ers who react to daily polls are going to lose a lot of sleep

I haven't been here very long, but long enough to see quite a few posts by highly distressed DU'ers who are reacting as if in a panic to polls they have seen. Polls are an important indicator, but not all polls carry the same weight. I would encourage people to try to not get too worked up over Romney jumping ahead a point or two in different polls -- try to relax, have faith in Team Obama, donate, do something constructive, believe that we will get the job done. Stay positive, stay focused. We will all sleep a lot better.

[trayfoot]

8. Thanks Lynn!

I am one of those freaking out today!

[Dawgs]

9. I agree with everything you say but the "cell phone" theory.

I follow polls as much as anyone, know the history of previous elections, and have never seen anything that proves an effect from missing cell phone only people in polls.

[dawg]

11. I still don't feel better.

Any country that wouldn't overwhelmingly reject these bozo's is a country with a serious problem. Even if we win, the country is still incredibly screwed up.

They believe shit that would make Erich Von Daniken blush.

They think the world is 6000 years old, people just choose to be gay (you know, just to be different), women's bodies naturally reject rapist's sperm, birth control is a sin (and you're a slut if you use it), the more sex you have the more you have to pay for birth control pills, the best way to prosperity is to cut rich peoples taxes, the fact that someone with $250 million net worth pays an effective rate of 13% is *not* a problem, that the housing crash happened because of the Community Reinvestment Act (long delayed-reaction on that one guys), that our pro-choice pro gay-rights President is secretly a Muslim, that the President's mother was born a man (and somehow had a baby anyway), that the President's mother faked her son's birth certificate back in 1961, before the Civil Rights Act, you know, just in case her bi-racial child with the African name wanted to run for President someday. They think Ayn Rand is compatible with Jesus Christ. They think the Republicans will be the defenders of Medicare (and that the government should just keep it's damn hands off of their Medicare). These people are too stupid for me to comprehend. I don't understand how they are able to remember to breathe and eat and drink water.

I think maybe I just need to tune out for a while and cool off. The stupid is burning me so much lately.

[LynneSin]

13. This is easily a 3rd of the country

As long as we keep these people stupid they'll keep thinking that it's the minorities or the gays or someone other than themselves that is causing them to have shitty lives.

The Republicans have spent decades perfecting that message to the low income voters

[ProSense]

14. People forget that

polls are not always accurate barometers. The clearest example of that is the poll averages, which show a tight race. The media made a big deal of this, but if you look at the poll averages, McCain was in a tighter race than Romney. Obama's margin is higher against Romney.

The other issues are the state averages. This is also misleading, especially when people compare the poll margins to the election margins. At one point in September 2008, Obama led McCain by only two points, he won the state by nearly 14 points.

Polls within the margin of error are not good news for Romney.

[LynneSin]

16. As a reminder Gore won the popularity vote in 2000

but that's not how elections are won. I have no interest in seeing national polls

[demwing]

15. Not to be a rain cloud, but the cell phone issue isn't really true anymore

most pollsters include cell phone #s in their call lists.

[LynneSin]

17. If you look at the polling criteria you'll see who is using cell phone data

it's not across the board.